Road to Kentucky Derby needs detour. Best horses are being left out of field

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07-05-2025

Trainer Mark Casse, whose colt Sandman finished second in the Road to Kentucky Derby leaderboard, believes the post draw in the Run for the Roses should reflect the points system.
Finish first in points and get first pick in selecting a post. Priority would be given by points on down the list until the 20th horse gets his gate. It'd be a way to ensure the better horses don't get stuck with poor draws and those that barely qualified and have little chance of winning aren't starting from a prime position.
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'Can we do it this year?' joked Ian Wilkes, trainer of Burnham Square, which finished first in points this year and drew the No. 9 post.
Casse believed it could also trickle down to leading more owners and trainers running their horses in more prep races.
Trainer Steve Asmussen, who was completely satisfied with his horses Tiztastic and Publisher drawing posts 13 and 14, respectively, agreed. He added that some owners and trainers pull back on prep races once they've scored enough to comfortably be in the Derby field, but rewarding them might foster competing for more points.
"Anything that incentivizes somebody to run more is a good thing for racing," Asmussen said.
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Saturday's draw was not a good thing for Casse.
Sandman will operate out of post 17, which has historically been one of the worst positions, and its lone winner was Rich Strike in 2022. American Promise, which was listed at 30-1 odds, drew the favorable No. 5 post.
'We've ran, and we've ran hard; we should be rewarded for that,' Casse said. '(Now) it's just the luck of the draw.'
Trainer Bob Baffert, who makes his return to Churchill Downs after a three-year suspension, received the dreaded No. 1 post with Citizen Bull. Baffert facetiously said he wanted to challenge the draw, but noted he liked the process better when they drew an order of selection and trainers got to pick their own post position.
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It's a good idea to try as much as possible to deny luck from playing a part in what is annually the most visible and important two minutes in horse racing. But the post draw is far from being the most important matter until the point system itself is refined.
There are worthy horses who don't get in the field. There are, let's just say, less-than-worthy horses that do. And that needs to change.
Even if it didn't have an impact on the outcome of the race with so many intangibles factoring into a 20-horse field, trainer Todd Pletcher said rewarding the points winner with picking its post could bring some intrigue to the process.
'Anything we can do to spice it up a little bit is good,' Pletcher said.
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Trainer Brad Cox believes there should be some wiggle room for automatic berths in the Derby field.
He'd start with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race, for 2-year-old colts and geldings, which has produced six Derby winners since 1984, including Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016. (The Baffert-trained Derby entrant Citizen Bull won it in November.)
Cox would like to give Grade 1 races for 2-year-olds like the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park and Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland (won by Derby entrant East Avenue) more weight in the points system. It would provide an avenue for owners and trainers to race in fewer prep races for the overall benefit of the horse's health.
'Maybe only have one prep leading up, if you choose to do that, because there are small, nagging things with horses at times that need to be addressed, and I do think the Derby can kind of put (addressing) those things on hold,' Cox said.
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Kenny McPeek, who became the first trainer since 1952 to sweep the Kentucky Oaks and Derby last year, sees a glaring hole in the points system. McPeek believes 'the best one or two fillies' should have an option to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
McPeek should know. He partnered his Oaks winner, Thorpedo Anna, with his Derby winner, Mystik Dan, for much of their early training. McPeek not only believes Thorpedo Anna could have competed against the colts, he thinks she could have won the Derby last year.
'No filly will ever win it again until they change the point system,' McPeek said.
The good thing is the point system is constantly being tweaked to get it right. The bad news is one of those recent changes tweaked a potential contender right out of the race.
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Baeza finished second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, which has seen 19 starters and 10 of its winners go on to win the Kentucky Derby. But this year's race only had five starters, including Citizen Bull.
Because of the rules change, only 75% of points were awarded since the field size shrunk, leaving Baeza to collect just 37.5 points instead of 50. Had it been awarded the full number for a second-place finish, Baeza would be tied with Flying Mohawk and Grande at 15th on the leaderboard, after Saturday's news of Tappan Street's scratch, and comfortably in the Derby field.
Instead, Baeza may have to look toward the Preakness Stakes unless one more horse has to withdraw from the field.
Ensuring the Kentucky Derby gets the 20 best 3-year-olds should never come down to the luck of the draw.
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Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at [e-mail], follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2025: Run for Roses at Churchill Downs could use tweak