Tesla vs U.S. EV Rivals: Who Wins the Tariff War?

Globe and Mail

13-04-2025

Trump's new tariff barrage is jolting the electric vehicle market—and Tesla (TSLA) might not be the winner this time. While the TSLA stock has bounced around like a pinball —swinging nearly $200 billion in market value this week—rival EV makers may be quietly positioning for a tariff-era edge.
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Tesla vs Ford: Both Exposed to China, But Tesla Feels It Harder
Tesla's exposure to Chinese tariffs just got real. The company stopped taking orders for its Model S and X in China, where tariffs would force a 45% price cut just to stay level. That's a non-starter. Meanwhile, Ford (F) has a more diversified global footprint and leans less heavily on high-end China exports.
In addition, Tesla's Q1 U.S. sales dropped by 8.6%, resulting in a nine percentage point loss in its EV market share. Ford, though less dominant in EVs, isn't dealing with luxury pricing pressure in China. That gives it breathing room Tesla doesn't have.
Tesla vs General Motors: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities on Both Sides
General Motors (GM) shares Tesla's problem: imported components. Both could face higher costs if tariffs on parts remain at 25%, as Goldman Sachs warned. But GM has broader ICE (internal combustion engine) fallback revenue, while Tesla's brand—and margins—lean more aggressively into luxury EV territory, where price cuts hurt most.
Tesla vs Rivian: Domestic Focus Gives Rivian an Opening
Rivian (RIVN), despite lower production scale, builds entirely in the U.S.—a major tariff-proof advantage right now. As tariffs raise costs on imports, Rivian's clean domestic profile could start to matter more to consumers and investors looking for stability. Tesla's global sprawl makes it harder to pivot quickly.
Tesla vs Lucid: Premium EV Showdown Gets Interesting
Lucid (LCID), like Rivian, builds in the U.S. and doesn't rely on China. While still a small player, Lucid's Air sedan competes directly with Tesla's Model S—precisely the model Tesla pulled from China. If Lucid keeps scaling, it may grab the very customers Tesla can no longer serve abroad.
Compare These Stocks on TipRanks
Tariffs aren't just trade policy—they're economic tremors with stock market consequences. Use the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool to compare Tesla, Rivian, GM, Ford, and Lucid side-by-side. Track who's exposed, who's insulated, and who could ride out this tariff storm with their margins intact.
Decoding the TipRanks Smart Score
The TipRanks Smart Score breakdown paints a telling picture of how U.S. EV stocks are positioned right now—and surprisingly, it's not Tesla leading the pack. Tesla scores a 1 out of 10, the lowest possible rating on TipRanks' system, signaling underperformance. Despite a solid analyst price target ($306.14) and a massive market cap, the score suggests weak institutional confidence, negative sentiment, and pressure from recent volatility and tariff exposure.
General Motors follows closely behind with a score of 2, also flagged as underperforming. While analysts still see upside in GM, its exposure to global supply chains and lukewarm technicals are keeping institutional enthusiasm muted.
On the other end, Rivian is the standout with a Smart Score of 8, putting it firmly in the 'Outperform' zone. That suggests hedge funds, technical indicators, and investor sentiment are all tilting in its favor—likely helped by its U.S.-based manufacturing, which shields it from international tariff pressure.
Lucid scores a 7, placing it just below the outperform threshold. It benefits from the same domestic edge as Rivian but suffers from weak fundamentals and a negative price forecast. Ford, with a score of 5, sits right in the middle. Its high dividend yield offers income stability, but limited upside and trade-related cost risks are holding back its momentum.
Taken together, these Smart Scores give investors a behind-the-scenes look at how each EV stock is being treated by the market's deeper forces.