Fantasy trends and hidden gems: Martin Necas traded to ideal situation — who's next?

New York Times

14-02-2025

The trade deadline market opened early this season, and player movement should ramp up even more when the NHL season resumes after the 4 Nations Face-off.
Let's talk about the fantasy impact of some of the deals that already took place and stretch-run strategies for players who could be on the move in the next few weeks.
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The Hurricanes sent shockwaves through the NHL with the Rantanen trade. On paper, the team brought in exactly what they needed: an elite winger with finishing talent. But six games into Rantanen's tenure, this deal is getting talked about for all the wrong reasons from the Canes' perspective. It doesn't exactly help that Martin Necas is popping off in Colorado.
So, should there be concern over Rantanen's start with the Hurricanes after only scoring two points in six games? Honestly, not yet. As familiar as most players are with different systems and strategies, it still doesn't change the fact the Hurricanes and Avalanche play two totally different styles, which requires somewhat of an adjustment period. The same can be said for the transition from playing with a right-handed center in Nathan MacKinnon to lefty Sebastian Aho.
There is always the possibility Rantanen doesn't fit in with the Hurricanes in the long run, but six games on the fly isn't the best measuring stick just yet. Plus, anyone trying to move him now would sell at the lowest possible cost. For now, be patient — and don't necessarily panic if the Hurricanes move him away from Aho, either. Seeing him get more looks with a puck-carrying righty wouldn't be a surprise.
The fit for Necas, on the other hand, has been seamless. Playing with MacKinnon helps. Necas has the foot speed to keep up with MacKinnon, giving Colorado's new-look top-line two-zone entry machines.
Sustainability is a question, especially when his scoring slowed with the Hurricanes after his torrid start. In Colorado, though, there is a bit more oomph behind his scoring. The quality of his teammates has a lot to do with it — he has played 90 percent of his five-on-five minutes and shares the ice with Cale Makar and Devon Toews about 66 percent of the time. That's a massive difference from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Eric Robinson, Sean Walker, and Shayne Gostisbehere. Necas is legitimately in one of the most favorable positions a player can be with the Avalanche, and his underlying numbers over his first eight games support that. With the Hurricanes this season, his play below the surface was a bit more suspect.
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For some managers, maybe this is an opportunity to sell high — but it better be for an absolute haul. But really, the only reason to move on Necas would be to get some lineup diversity if you already have Makar and MacKinnon. Otherwise, this is a player worth holding onto.
Managers don't have to leap to add Hall just yet because the numbers aren't there to warrant a pick-up (and I'll flag that if anything changes over the next few weeks). However, he is someone to keep in mind because there are some positive signs below the surface. He has positively impacted the Hurricanes' two-way game in a small sample and even showed promise on a bad Blackhawks team. His puck-moving ability can elevate a team's offense between his possession entries and passes to set up scoring chances. If Hall moves to Andrei Svechnikov's line, that may be the opening to add him.
Miller failed to replicate his 2023-24 success in Vancouver, with his scoring rate dropping by a whole point per 60 before getting moved to New York. He looked re-energized in his first couple of games back with the Rangers, and that could open the door to managers reclaiming some value on him after such a disappointing start to the season. There isn't a wrong answer here. If the opportunity presents itself to sell high, it could be worthwhile. But the Rangers have a favorable schedule down the stretch in March, with two consecutive four-game slates.
The bigger question in Miller's case is what impact he will have on the players around him, considering how many players have taken a step back in New York this season. Maybe the most interesting is Mika Zibanejad, considering his struggles. Shifting to Miller's wing seemed to agree with him, as did their time together on the top power play unit. Zibanejad's PP1 role will hold value, but if the Rangers trend away from that and keep him at 3C, that is the sign to kick him and look elsewhere.
Just how much of an impact can Chytil have in Vancouver? If he can stay healthy, there is a lot of potential here. He adds a lot of pop to a lineup between his skating and puck-moving play. Chytil helps generate scoring chances, and now he should have more time to do it in a 2C capacity. His five-on-five ice time has already ticked up slightly with the Canucks, along with his power play time.
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Granlund should have more support from the Stars than he did from the Sharks, considering the differences in roster caliber between the two teams. But one key difference could influence his production: usage.
Granlund has only played four games with the Stars, so a lot can still change, but his ice time is down from an average of 20:51 in all situations in San Jose to 17:23. One of the most noticeable differences is his power play deployment. Granlund was on the Sharks' top unit and averaged around 3:12 a game, while he has played about two minutes fewer per game so far in Dallas.
Five-on-five play may cancel that out — the Sharks have outscored opponents 4-2 with Granlund on the second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene. Their underlying numbers are just a bit more suspect, so this is a situation to track moving forward. If the opportunity is there, it wouldn't be the worst idea to sell high on Granlund. But it isn't the worst idea to let him cook and see how he adjusts to his new team after the break, either.
The handful of trades made over the past few weeks is the tip of the iceberg. There is an entire board of players who could still be on the move, and likely some surprising names who haven't generated buzz yet.
There will be an entire column to break down the fantasy implications of the deadline (on Monday, March 10). But until then, we can look at how some players' values may swing to help prepare for potential movement.
Brock Nelson, the top player on The Athletic's Trade Board, would likely benefit from a change in scenery. Age may be slightly contributing to a depressed scoring rate compared to years past, but the team around him may be the leading cause. Nelson's five-on-five production is down slightly, but he is still a positive for the Islanders' offensive creation. The driving force behind his downtick in scoring is the power play, an area the team has struggled with all year. While he may not be a PP1 staple on a contender, the scoring potential should still be greater elsewhere.
The same goes for Brad Marchand, who still has the chops to be an effective top-six player. He needs more support down the middle than he has had in Boston this year.
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Rickard Rakell, on the other hand, is scoring at the second-best rate of his career. Can he maintain that elsewhere? It depends on where he goes and what his role will be. He won't have his primary center, Sidney Crosby, elsewhere. If a team acquires him to play anything besides a top-line role, his fantasy value probably will take a hit.
Players like Ryan Donato and Yanni Gourde may not get leaned on as much on a contender, but the strength of those rosters could outweigh that and give them a bit more of a boost.
A change of scenery could be exactly what Dylan Cozens needs to get back on track. He has seriously struggled in Buffalo since his breakout year. But unlike some pending unrestricted free agents, there isn't as much of a rush to make a deal happen now — it could always wait until summer when teams have a bit more cap flexibility.
Former Sabre, Casey Mittelstadt, is also on the trade board. His situation is tricky because he's already on a contender. If the Avalanche opt to keep him and find more support around him — whether it's another middle-six wing addition or more puck-movers from the backend to help players who don't get to share the ice with Makar as often — it could help him get back on track.
Bowen Byram was in the Mittelstadt trade last year. His value has trended up recently in Buffalo, but it will be interesting to see if he gets moved for the second straight season. A move to a team with a bit more offensive firepower or more room on the top power play unit could open up his scoring a bit more.
Sticking with defensemen, Seth Jones is an intriguing one. It's easy to dunk on how his game doesn't necessarily match his salary, but he could be a good buy-low candidate. He already contributes to some of the secondary categories managers need their defenders to chip in with. But a move from Chicago could benefit him on the scoresheet. He may not have PP1 opportunities elsewhere, but if he can unlock some of those rover skills that made him successful in Columbus, it should help at five-on-five.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Martin Necas: Derek Cain / Getty Images)