How Employers Can Forecast – And Mitigate – The Overlooked Business Costs Of Climate

Forbes

3 days ago

Throughout my work as a surgeon and a U.S. senator, I have focused on practical solutions that keep people healthy, safe and resilient, that are firmly backed by data. Today, I see a new data-driven reality: climate impacts—from extreme heat to wildfire smoke—are steadily eroding workforce health and driving up employer medical costs. I've spent the last 18 years building healthcare companies that address gaps in care and improve health outcomes, but most employers I've worked with can't easily measure and adapt for the extreme weather that's impacting their workforce and their patients. A group I'm a part of has set out to change that.
On May 5th, the National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health and Mercer launched the Climate Health Cost Forecaster, a first-of-its-kind digital tool that converts extreme heat, smoke, floods, and hurricanes into CFO-ready figures across any zip code. Built on a model developed by Mercer, the Forecaster fuses public climate data with health-care claims to project 10-year cost curves.
Early results are blunt: employees in climate-controlled settings rack up 40 percent lower medical costs, while agriculture, utilities, and construction can face double the risk of climate-driven claims. Additional research shows a troubling gap: 77 percent of U.S. workers say climate events have already impacted them or their families, but only 4 percent of employers have mapped out who is most vulnerable.
These events are becoming more frequent, and employees know it. New polling from the Commission and Northwind Climate found that 1 in 4 U.S. workers say they already face 'high' or 'very high' health risks from climate-related hazards on the job. The Forecaster finally gives business leaders a way to understand these trends and turn risk into readiness.
Data alone, however, does not heal people; investments do. Louisville's Green Heart Project proves the point. Over three years, researchers planted more than 8,000 trees and shrubs across four square miles in a double-blind study and tracked residents' health. Those living in the 'greened' zone showed 13–20 percent lower levels of C-reactive protein—a marker that is a strong risk indicator for heart attack and other chronic conditions—than neighbors without a new canopy. Cleaner air, cooler streets, and reduced stress arose from something as replicable as planting trees along city blocks. These types of projects offer inspiring case studies for forward-thinking business leaders.
Parametric insurance is another innovative example. After the record May 2024 heat waves in India, a Swiss Re–backed plan for the Self-Employed Women's Association triggered cash payouts to more than 46,000 outdoor women workers when local temperatures breached pre-set thresholds. The policy replaces lost wages on days that are too dangerous to work, letting workers buy cooling supplies and cover medical costs without waiting for claims adjusters. Index-based covers like this could be adapted by U.S. employers for outdoor crews, converting extreme-heat volatility into a predictable line item and reinforcing the business case for preventive investments such as shade, hydration, and flexible shifts.
What employers should do now—before the next smoke wave or heat dome
Summer is already here—and with it, record-breaking heat, wildfire smoke, and another wave of extreme weather. Employers can't afford to wait for another crisis to act.
None of this is partisan. Protecting workers from heatstroke, smoke inhalation, and stress-related disease is good for health and good for business. Whether you manage a farm in Tennessee or a tech campus in California, the equation is the same: healthy people power healthy businesses.
As co-chair of the National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health, we'll keep surfacing the data, partnerships, and innovations that turn risk into resilience. But leadership ultimately rests with employers—and with partners willing to accelerate ideas that deliver both planetary and human dividends. Climate impacts are becoming a widespread condition, but they are not untreatable. Companies already pay for the symptoms in rising claims and absenteeism; with the right diagnostics and a few nature-based prescriptions, they can finance the cure. Our people and economy will be healthier for it.