Chance for change or more of the same?

Malaysia Sun

27-05-2025

People pass the logo of the 46th ASEAN Summit displayed near the Kuala Lumpur Convention Center, Malaysia, May 26, 2025. /CFP
Editor's note: Andrew W. Mantong, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a researcher at the Department of International Relations under the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Indonesia. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
The ongoing 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is vital for continuing the discussions on ASEAN's centrality since in an era of geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges, the bloc's relevance as an anchor of regional diplomacy cannot be overstated.
The looming threat of U.S. tariffs has combined with broader geopolitical shifts and natural crises to underscore the urgency of reinforcing ASEAN's ability to act decisively. These crises, while highlighting the group's institutional limitations, also emphasize the need for it to maintain its central role in defusing regional tensions. The question is not whether ASEAN is still central, but whether it can continue to deliver results in the face of a fragmenting geopolitical order.
On the economic front, U.S. tariffs threaten ASEAN's major trade relations. The impact of the Trump administration's unilateral imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has already begun to ripple through the region due to its reliance on Chinese supply chains. Yet ASEAN's response to external pressures has been inconsistent, largely due to its divided economic interests.
While some of its members advocate collective action against tariffs, others have prioritized bilateral trade agreements with China and the U.S. This fragmentation has led to a lack of coherent regional strategies, with ASEAN members often opting for national-level responses rather than unified, multilateral solutions. This scenario underscores the urgent need to adopt more effective institutional mechanisms to handle global economic challenges.
However, there are glimpses of promise. Malaysia called for ASEAN to "stand firm together" in the wake of Trump's so-called Liberation Day, April 2, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced his "reciprocal tariff" strategy.
Also, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, whose signatories consist of ASEAN nations along with China, Japan and South Korea, remains one of ASEAN's greatest successes. This trade pact, which aims to create the world's largest free trade area, underscores ASEAN's potential to drive economic integration across the region.
A billboard in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, May 22, 2025. /CFP
However, these positive signs are overshadowed by internal divisions and external pressures. For example, while ASEAN maintains strong economic ties with China, the China-U.S. competition increasingly complicates the group's ability to act as an impartial mediator in regional issues.
As ASEAN has limited resources to tackle its existing challenges, it still needs dialogue partners to maintain its existing level of operations. But today ASEAN dialogue partners are increasingly engaging in a more intensified competition and mini-lateral platforms like the Quad may challenge ASEAN's role as the leading diplomatic body in the Asia-Pacific region.
There are formidable internal problems as well. Apart from the Myanmar humanitarian and natural crisis, online fraud continues to wreak havoc on ASEAN integration, including the tourism sector, hitting hard the region's digital economy. Online scams targeting tourists have created urgent concerns about the lack of cross-border cooperation and weak law enforcement mechanisms across ASEAN member states.
While the bloc has discussed the issue within various frameworks, including its economic community pillar, no concrete actions have emerged. ASEAN's traditional diplomatic engagement often falls short of addressing transnational issues like online fraud, despite the potential of the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime to combat it. Effective action requires collaboration across multiple sectors, from law enforcement to cybersecurity measures. However, ASEAN's institutional constraints - including weak cross-pillar coordination - continue to limit its ability to tackle these threats effectively.
ASEAN faces an inflection point where it must decide whether to remain entrenched in its current structures and practices or take bold steps to address its inherent weaknesses. The region is at a crossroads with escalating internal crises, rising geopolitical pressures and the shifting role of major powers - all demanding urgent action. At the Malaysia summit, the challenge for ASEAN leaders is whether they can evolve to meet these challenges, or whether they will allow the status quo to persist, potentially diminishing ASEAN's relevance on the global stage.
Finally, as ASEAN moves forward, the question remains: Can the bloc's centrality be maintained? If so, at what cost? The importance of ASEAN's centrality to regional powers like China, Japan and the U.S. cannot be overstated. They, while increasingly focusing on bilateral relations, still have much to gain from ASEAN's central role in regional stability.
The neutrality of ASEAN provides its ability to facilitate dialogue and its potential as a unified economic bloc. In this way, ASEAN's continued centrality must be seen as a valuable strategic asset for its dialogue partners.
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Source: CGTN