Killer Asteroid Will Miss Earth But Return for a Shot at Revenge
Remember the potential "city killer" asteroid we were all freaking out about, 2024 YR4? Initially predicted with a small but unsettling chance of hitting our planet seven years from now, astronomers eventually ruled out that apocalyptic outcome once they were able to get better observations.
But the saga's not over. 2024 YR4 will be back for another pass, Athabasca University astronomer Martin Connors writes in an essay for The Conversation — and there'll be others like it.
As Connors explains, YR4 exhibits what's known as "orbital resonance" with Jupiter, meaning that it moves at a multiple of the speed of the gas giant. While Jupiter takes roughly 12 years to orbit the Sun, asteroids like YR4 only take four, putting it in a 3:1 resonance.
The upshot, in an "Armageddon" context, is that resonant asteroids close enough to cross Earth's orbit will have multiple attempts to hit the bullseye.
"Among asteroids, we must pay special attention to resonant ones, such as 2024 YR4, because eventually, they'll be back," Connors wrote.
The 3:1 resonance with Jupiter is special, because for a century it appeared that there were no asteroids in the asteroid belt that exhibited this pattern, as well as at other seemingly arbitrary resonances like 5:2 and 7:3.
Astronomers began to pull back the curtain on this phenomenon, dubbed Kirkwood gaps, in the 1970s. Any asteroids that ventured into these specific resonances, they determined, would either crash into an inner planet like Earth or be booted out by flying too close to them, giving the appearance of a "gap."
As it turned out, the Kirkwood gaps weren't completely empty. A whole classification of asteroids called "Alindas" was recognized for objects in a 3:1 resonance with Jupiter, Connors wrote. They're named after the absolutely enormous asteroid 887 Alinda, first discovered in 1918. At roughly 2.5 miles across, 887 Alinda would cause an extinction-level catastrophe if it struck Earth. In January, it menaced us with its closest approach in one hundred years.
Not all Alindas are aligned to cross paths with our planet, however. "A limiting factor is how tilted their orbits are: if they are quite tilted, they are not often at a 'height' matching Earth's, so are less likely to hit," Connors explained. "The bad news about that is that both Alinda and 2024 YR4 are very nearly in the plane of Earth's orbit, and are not tilted much, so are more likely to hit."
Fortunately, it'll be a long, long while before Alinda will have a chance of nearing Earth — not for another 1,000 years, according to Connors.
As for 2024 YR4, it'll whiff its chance to take a city off the map in 2032. And after it does, it'll be nudged out of its Alinda orbit — that is, its 3:1 resonance with Jupiter and 1:4 resonance with Earth — by passing too closely. That means it won't be haunting us every four years anymore. But humiliation is often the stuff that forges a villain, and it'll still come back. Just not as often.
More on asteroids: First-Ever Asteroid Mining Mission Loses Contact With Earth
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
How many ice ages has the Earth had, and could humans live through one?
Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you'd like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@ How many ice ages has the Earth had, and could humans live through one? – Mason C., age 8, Hobbs, New Mexico First, what is an ice age? It's when the Earth has cold temperatures for a long time – millions to tens of millions of years – that lead to ice sheets and glaciers covering large areas of its surface. We know that the Earth has had at least five major ice ages. The first one happened about 2 billion years ago and lasted about 300 million years. The most recent one started about 2.6 million years ago, and in fact, we are still technically in it. So why isn't the Earth covered in ice right now? It's because we are in a period known as an 'interglacial.' In an ice age, temperatures will fluctuate between colder and warmer levels. Ice sheets and glaciers melt during warmer phases, which are called interglacials, and expand during colder phases, which are called glacials. Right now we are in the most recent ice age's warm interglacial period, which began about 11,000 years ago. When most people talk about the 'ice age,' they are usually referring to the last glacial period, which began about 115,000 years ago and ended about 11,000 years ago with the start of the current interglacial period. During that time, the planet was much cooler than it is now. At its peak, when ice sheets covered most of North America, the average global temperature was about 46 degrees Fahrenheit (8 degrees Celsius). That's 11 degrees F (6 degrees C) cooler than the global annual average today. That difference might not sound like a lot, but it resulted in most of North America and Eurasia being covered in ice sheets. Earth was also much drier, and sea level was much lower, since most of the Earth's water was trapped in the ice sheets. Steppes, or dry grassy plains, were common. So were savannas, or warmer grassy plains, and deserts. Many animals present during the ice age would be familiar to you, including brown bears, caribou and wolves. But there were also megafauna that went extinct at the end of the ice age, like mammoths, mastodons, saber-toothed cats and giant ground sloths. There are different ideas about why these animals went extinct. One is that humans hunted them into extinction when they came in contact with the megafauna. Yes, people just like us lived through the ice age. Since our species, Homo sapiens, emerged about 300,000 years ago in Africa, we have spread around the world. During the ice age, some populations remained in Africa and did not experience the full effects of the cold. Others moved into other parts of the world, including the cold, glacial environments of Europe. And they weren't alone. At the beginning of the ice age, there were other species of hominins – a group that includes our immediate ancestors and our closest relatives – throughout Eurasia, like the Neanderthals in Europe and the mysterious Denisovans in Asia. Both of these groups seem to have gone extinct before the end of the ice age. There are lots of ideas about how our species survived the ice age when our hominin cousins did not. Some think that it has to do with how adaptable we are, and how we used our social and communication skills and tools. And it appears that humans didn't hunker down during the ice age. Instead they moved into new areas. For a long time it was thought that humans did not enter North America until after the ice sheets started to melt. But fossilized footprints found at White Sands National Park in New Mexico show that humans have been in North America since at least 23,000 years ago – close to the peak of the last ice age. Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you'd like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@ Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live. And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you're wondering, too. We won't be able to answer every question, but we will do our best. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Denise Su, Arizona State University Read more: What will the Earth be like in 500 years? Small climate changes can have devastating local consequences – it happened in the Little Ice Age Last of the giants: What killed off Madagascar's megafauna a thousand years ago? Denise Su does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Gizmodo
2 hours ago
- Gizmodo
NASA Pulls the Plug on Europa Lander, but Scientists Propose a Plan B
NASA engineers have spent the past decade developing a rugged, partially autonomous lander designed to explore Europa, one of Jupiter's most intriguing moons. The space agency got cold feet over the project, but engineers are now targeting a new destination for the probe: Enceladus. Europa has long been a prime target in the search for extraterrestrial biology because scientists suspect it harbors a subsurface ocean beneath its icy crust, potentially teeming with microbial life. But the robot—packed with radiation shielding, cutting-edge software, and ice-drilling appendages—won't be going anywhere anytime soon. In a recent paper in Science Robotics, engineers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) outlined the design and testing of what was once the Europa Lander prototype, a four-legged robotic explorer built to survive the brutal surface conditions of the Jovian moon. The robot was designed to walk—as opposed to roll—analyze terrain, collect samples, and drill into Europa's icy crust—all with minimal guidance from Earth, due to the major communication lag between our planet and the moon 568 million miles (914 million kilometers) away. Designed to operate autonomously for hours at a time, the bot came equipped with stereoscopic cameras, a robotic arm, LED lights, and a suite of specialized materials tough enough to endure harsh radiation and bone-chilling cold. Temperatures on the moon range from about -210 degrees Fahrenheit (-134 degrees Celsius) at its equator to as low as -370 degrees F (-223 degrees C) at its poles. After years of development—including testing in JPL's labs, advanced simulations, and a final field trial on icy terrain in Alaska—the Europa Lander aced its tests. It was ready to take on the solar system's frosty frontier. But the space agency has now pulled the plug on the mission. According to the team, the challenges of getting to Europa—its radiation exposure, immense distance, and short observation windows—proved too daunting for NASA's higher-ups. And that's before you take into consideration the devastating budget cuts planned by the Trump administration, which would see the agency's funding fall from $7.3 billion to $3.9 billion. The lander, once the centerpiece of a bold astrobiology initiative, is now essentially mothballed. But the engineers aren't giving up. They're now lobbying for the robot to get a second shot—on Enceladus, Saturn's ice-covered moon, which also boasts a subsurface ocean and has proven more favorable for robotic exploration. Enceladus is still frigid, but has lower radiation and better access windows than Europa. Whether the ice-walker gets a new lease on its semi-autonomous life remains to be seen. But the robot was built for a moonwalk—albeit a relatively rigid and clanky one—and it deserves its moment.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
65 Absolutely Breaktaking Historical Pictures That Will Completely And Totally Change Your Perspective On The Universe
is a picture of Earth from ONE HOUR ago: Do you see yourself? this is a picture of Mars that was taken THIS WEEK: Weather looks nicer than New York City, not going to lie. is how big Earth is compared to Jupiter's Great Red Spot: I would hesitate to call that giant thing a "spot." It's disrespectful to Big Jupey. of which, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter is shrinking: According to NASA, "Some unknown activity in the planet's atmosphere may be draining energy and weakening the storm, causing it to shrink." while we're talkin' Jupiter, this is what Jupiter would look like if it were as close as the moon: Petition to replace the moon with Jupiter. Get on it, Biden. is what the Korean penisula — North Korea on top, South Korea on bottom – looks like from space: That arrow is pointing to Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. 2001, there was a huge dust storm on Mars that obscured the whole planet from the outside: Imagine leaving your windows open on Mars that day. is what Florida looks like from space: To paraphrase Carl Sagan: Every Floridian you love, every Floridian who has robbed a gas station, every Floridian who has unwisely kept an exotic animal as a pet, every Floridian who has ever been seriously hurt flying off a jump in a backyard go-kart accident, has lived out their lives on that peninsula. this is what the Himalayas look like from International Space Station: Not so tall now, are you! is the last image NASA's InSight rover sent from Mars before running out of power at the end of its mission last December: we're on the subject, this is the last picture the Mars Opportunity rover took: Well, one of the final few. Goodnight, sweet prince. is what a volcano erupting looks like from space: Neat! to scale, is how far apart the Milky Way galaxy and the Andromeda galaxy are: FYI, the Milky Way is about 100,000 light-years across. is how big Earth is compared to Saturn: Earth is PUNY. this is how big the Moon and Pluto's moon Charon are compared to the Earth: You know what? I'm glad that puny little dwarf planet doesn't count as a planet anymore. is what Antarctica looks like from space: Read more about how this image was made here. is what the inside of a 1970s spacesuit looked like: Specially the Russian Orlan suit. Looks comfortable and not horrifying at all! can see volcanic eruptions on Jupiter's moon Io from space: Some are large enough to be seen from Earth, too. of IO, here's a picture of one of the moon's most unique mountains, named "Steeple Mountain:" It's about four miles high. is what the Pacific Ocean looks like from space: There are at least ten fish pictured here. is a picture of Pluto and its moons taken in 2006... Related: 13 Tweets From Women This Week That Made Me Laugh So Hard I Might Need Medical Attention this is a much, much clearer picture of Pluto taken only a decade later, in 2015: By NASA's New Horizons spacecraft from 476,000 miles out. is what the Space Shuttle Endeavour looked like as it left Earth and traveled into orbit: It looks like a little toy. is what a typhoon looks like from space: Specifically, Super Typhoon Maysak in 2015. picture was taken shortly after David Scott and Neil Armstrong's Gemini 8 space capsule landed in the Pacific Ocean: Some cool-looking extra-terrestrial dudes. is what the United Kingdom looked like from space during the winter of 2010: Likes like one of those Games of Thrones. is what a sunset looks like from space: Hmmm. Is this more or less impressive than the sunset your mom has as the background on her iPhone lock screen? Weigh in on this in the comments, please. Feb. 7, 1984, Bruce McCandless II performed the first-ever untethered space walk, and folks, it looks absolutely terrifying: He used a jet-propelled backpack to maneuver around. It was apparently very, very cold. is a picture of the ice mountains of Pluto as seen from the New Horizons space probe: The photo is 230 miles across, to put things into perspective. is what New Zealand looks like from space: I think I see Tom Bombadil. is how big an average-sized comet is compared to Paris: Specifically the Churyumov-Gerasimenko comet. Very chill, though. is a REAL picture of the moon crossing in front of the Earth: The image was taken by the DSCOVR spacecraft about a million miles away from Earth. Related: 18 People Who Took A Picture Of Something That — Oops — Is Super Dangerous is what a solar eclipse looks like from space: Like a pen blew up all over Earth. 1972, astronaut Charles Duke left behind a picture of his family on the moon's surface. It's been there ever since: The back of the photo reads, "This is the family of Astronaut Duke from Planet Earth, who landed on the Moon on the twentieth of April 1972." is how big everyone's favorite telescope, the Hubble Telescope, is: KRGEAC The Hubble Space Telescope at the Lockheed assembly plant 8913987 picture, taken in 1946, is one of the first images of Earth ever taken from space: It was captured from a 35-millimeter camera attached to a V-2 rocket. this is the first picture of Earth from the moon, taken in 1966 by Lunar Orbiter 1: Mars rovers are way, way bigger than you thought they were: This is the Perseverance rover. It's not a little RC car! is what a piece of the moon and a piece of Mars looks like: Read and see more here. are two of the earliest known photographs of Saturn and Jupiter, taken in the 19th century: probably familiar with the "Face on Mars," an image of a formation on Mars from the 1970s that launched a million conspiracy theories... this is what a much less blurry, much more recent photograph of that same "face" looks like: I still want to believe. is home to the tallest mountain in the solar system, the 72,000-foot-tall Olympus Mons: It's over 372 miles wide. That's bigger than Arizona. of Mars, this is what a sunset looks like on that there planet: Not as nice as Key West, but what are you gonna do. Martians make do. a bunch of trash left by humans on the moon. In fact, if you really want to know, there are 96 bags of human waste on that big pie in the sky: Now, THAT'S amore. might recognize Eugene from this iconic picture of his moon walk: recently captured one of the clearest pictures of Jupiter yet: Look at my boy Jupey! is the Willamette meteorite, the largest meteorite that's ever been found in the United States: It is the sixth largest in the world and weighs 15.5 tons. this is the Hoba meteorite, the largest meteorite on Earth: The largest that we know of, that is. It's located in Namibia. out on the edge of the Solar System is this big ol' hunk of rock called Ultima Thule, Arrokoth, or (486958) 2014 MU69 — the farthest thing from Earth humanity has ever "explored up close": Reminds me of two peanuts I ate earlier today. Those were some good peanuts. Aldrin took humanity's first "space selfie" while on a spacewalk in 1966: Never heard of a "space selfie"? Well, it's got its own Wikipedia page. is what the moon looks like in the Northern Hemisphere... this is what the moon looks like in the Southern Hemisphere. It's upside down: Well, I guess that just depends on the moon you lived your life with. is what Ireland looks like from space: I think I see Bono. finally, this is the statement President Jimmy Carter wrote and put aboard the Voyager 1 spacecraft, intended for any aliens the probe might encounter: It reads: "This Voyager spacecraft was constructed by the United States of America. We are a community of 240 million human beings among the more than 4 billion who inhabit the planet Earth. We human beings are still divided into nation states, but these states are rapidly becoming a single global civilization. "We cast this message into the cosmos. It is likely to survive a billion years into our future, when our civilization is profoundly altered and the surface of the Earth may be vastly changed. Of the 200 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy, some — perhaps many — may have inhabited planets and spacefaring civilizations. If one such civilization intercepts Voyager and can understand these recorded contents, here is our message: "This is a present from a small distant world, a token of our sounds, our science, our images, our music, our thoughts, and our feelings. We are attempting to survive our time so we may live into yours. We hope someday, having solved the problems we face, to join a community of galactic civilizations. This record represents our hope and our determination, and our good will in a vast and awesome universe." is Eugene Cernan, who is, as of 2023, the last man to ever walk on the moon: He did it way back in 1972. It's been that long, folks! let's end by looking at the TRUE color of every planet in our solar system. This is what color Mercury really is: this is what Venus looks like to the naked eye: where you are, Earth, in true color: No surprise here. is what Mars looks like in real color: this is what Jupiter looks like without any filters: Saturn in all its true-color glory: this is Uranus in real color: Neptune in true color: finally, here's our little dwarf planet warrior, Pluto, in real color: Also in Internet Finds: The History We're Taught Is Wildly Sanitized, So Here 28 Disturbing Historical Events Everyone Should Be Aware Of Also in Internet Finds: Tattoo Artists Are Sharing The Tattoos They Felt REALLY Uncomfortable Doing, And I Have No Words Also in Internet Finds: "I've Worked In Various Prisons. I Will Take A Men's Over Women's Any Day Of The Week. Shit Is Scary": Former Female Inmates Are Sharing Their Most Disturbing Prison Experiences, And My Jaw Is Literally On The Floor
