Will India avenge Pahalgam terror attack with jets, drones, or something new?

Time of India

23-04-2025

NEW DELHI: India is preparing a high-stakes, multidimensional response to the April 22 massacre of 28 civilians, mostly tourists, in Jammu and
Kashmir
's Pahalgam region. The Resistance Front (
TRF
), a proxy outfit linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and backed by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has claimed responsibility.
The massacre at Baisaran, near the resort town of Pahalgam, was the deadliest since the 2019 Pulwama bombing. But unlike Pulwama, which targeted security forces, this time civilians were the target—foreigners included.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi - who cut short his diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia—held an emergency meeting with national security advisor Ajit Doval and foreign minister
S Jaishankar
at the Delhi airport soon after landing. 'The perpetrators of this cowardly attack won't be spared,' Modi reportedly told top security officials, per sources cited by PTI.
Union home minister Amit Shah on Wednesday reviewed the security situation at the site of the assault in Pahalgam's Baisaran meadow. The home minister walked through the attack site under tight security and received a detailed briefing from senior officials on the current situation and the operations underway in the region.
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Meanwhile, India's military and diplomatic corps have begun charting out options for both kinetic and non-kinetic retaliation.
Why it matters
Ceasefire on the brink: The 2021 India-Pakistan LoC truce-widely credited with reducing cross-border shelling—now teeters on collapse. 'All bets are off with the LoC,' South Asia expert
Michael Kugelman
posted on X.
Deterrence credibility under pressure: Since 2016, India has twice responded to high-profile terror attacks with cross-border force: the
Uri
surgical strikes and the Balakot air raids. Another high-casualty strike, especially against civilians, challenges New Delhi to reassert its doctrine of "punitive deterrence."
Geopolitical implications: The massacre's timing—overlapping with US Vice President JD Vance's India trip and PM Modi's Saudi outreach—suggests an intent to draw international focus to Kashmir. Ex-Pakistan envoy Husain Haqqani likened the attack to Hamas' October 7 strike on Israel, warning of 'portentous ramifications.'
Zoom in: A familiar doctrine meets a new test
India's past retaliatory playbook centers on two defining actions:
Uri surgical strikes (2016):
Eleven days after militants attacked an Army base, Indian special forces struck multiple terror launch pads across the LoC in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The operation was limited, precise, and publicly declared to assert resolve.
Balakot airstrikes (2019):
Following the Pulwama suicide bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel, India conducted airstrikes deep inside Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, targeting a Jaish-e-Mohammed training facility.
These responses form the foundation of India's 'punitive deterrence' model: Escalate just enough to impose a cost but avoid provoking a wider war. The Pahalgam attack, with its scale, communal targeting, and international optics, tests whether that doctrine still has teeth—or needs an upgrade.
Between the lines: The dog whistle that may have drawn blood
Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir's recent rhetoric is now under intense scrutiny by Indian intelligence and strategic circles. His fiery public remarks, particularly branding Kashmir as Pakistan's 'jugular vein,' are being viewed not just as provocative symbolism but as a signal to militant proxies to escalate operations in the Valley.
Zoom in: What Munir said and why it matters
In a public address earlier this month, Munir said: 'Our stance is absolutely clear — Kashmir was our
jugular vein
, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their struggle.'
Indian officials say the timing of this statement—just days before the Pahalgam attack—was not coincidental. His use of emotionally charged language echoed Pakistan's long-standing two-nation theory and was seen by analysts as an ideological green light for terror outfits seeking relevance amid declining domestic traction in Kashmir.
A senior Indian security official described it as 'classic dog-whistling,' designed to incite action without direct attribution. 'They don't need to say 'attack.' Just saying 'jugular vein' is enough for their proxies to get the message,' the official said.
Rhetoric meets action: TRF's timing speaks volumes
The Resistance Front (TRF), a front organization of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam massacre. TRF has often operated under ISI patronage, giving Pakistan the plausible deniability it needs to deflect blame.
What makes the Munir connection more chilling: The language of the attack reportedly mirrored the sectarian tone of Munir's speeches. Survivors said the gunmen forced victims to recite Islamic verses, and those who couldn't were shot at close range.
Just days before the attack,
Lashkar
commander Abu Musa held a rally in Rawalkot calling for continued jihad in Kashmir, stating: 'Jihad will continue, guns will rage and beheading will continue in Kashmir.'
Indian intelligence believes this public threat had direct ideological backing from Pakistan's military top brass.
Indian officials now see a pattern of synchronization: Inflammatory speeches followed by high-profile attacks, a tactic meant to destabilize Kashmir, embarrass India globally, and provoke communal unrest.
What they are saying
"Bharat will not bend to terror. The culprits of this dastardly terror attack will not be spared," Union home minister Amit Shah said.
Michael Kugelman, Wilson Center: 'India will review potential kinetic responses… It may also consider non-military measures such as ending the 2021 LoC truce or suspending the Indus Waters Treaty.'
Lt Governor Manoj Sinha: 'The terrorists will pay a very heavy price. No mercy.'
Ex-Pakistan envoy Husain Haqqani: 'The April 22 attack is as portentous as Hamas' October 7 strike. It could reshape regional calculations.'
Beyond bombs: Diplomatic and economic levers
India's options aren't limited to missiles and air raids. Officials may also consider these non-kinetic steps:
Revoking the 2021 LoC ceasefire agreement—a signal that Pakistan can no longer rely on 'quiet' borders while fostering proxy war.
Suspending or redefining the Indus Waters Treaty, within legal bounds, to squeeze Pakistan's critical river flows.
Intensifying FATF lobbying—citing TRF's link to LeT—to push for Pakistan's return to the grey or black list for terror financing.
These steps rarely offer instant gratification but incrementally raise the cost of harboring terror proxies. They also play well with international partners already voicing outrage over the Pahalgam killings.
What 'something new' might look like
India can also use hybrid warfare tactics that avoid full military conflict but still extract a price:
Cyber Ops: Targeting ISI's digital infrastructure to disrupt command-and-control or leak communication intercepts implicating Pakistan.
Smart-border systems: Using sensors, AI, and drones to create 'kill boxes' that auto-target infiltrators.
Information warfare: Broadcasting Munir's dog-whistling and TRF's atrocities globally to shift the Kashmir narrative.
What's next
A layered response is the most likely scenario:
Short-term kinetic punch: Balakot or Uri-style strikes or drone attacks on launch pads to reestablish deterrence.
Covert hunt: Targeted eliminations of TRF handlers in Pakistan or PoK via RAW and special units.
Diplomatic escalation: At the UN, FATF, and regional blocs to isolate Pakistan.