US Antarctic science is under threat, and that could create a void for China and Russia to fill
And for nations operating on the icy continent, science often equals influence.
But what happens if the world leader in science there, is no longer world leader?
Antarctica is not a battleground, but as the US cuts key science programs there are concerns a quiet shift in dominance in the region could begin.
China and even Russia have increased their investment in the rapidly warming frozen continent.
China now has five permanent research stations and plans for a sixth, and for the first time ever has overtaken the US in the number of research papers published in the past year.
For the 60 Australian scientists aboard the RSV Nuyina icebreaker, which recently zigzagged through sea ice towards the Denman Glacier, their sense of being somewhere special was coupled with concerns about the future of global Antarctic research.
"We know that we're in a region that is pristine and that we need to protect," Professor Delphine Lannuzel, program leader at the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership said.
"The beauty of Antarctica is really it's often seen as the bottom of the world, but it's really the centre of the world.
"It's one continent surrounded by an ocean that is connecting all the other oceans together."
Their two-month marine voyage is now over and the scientists are back on land processing and analysing what they gathered, in the hope of shedding some light on why the Denman Glacier in East Antarctica is melting so fast, and what that means for Australia and the rest of the world.
Their work, and that of other nations in Antarctica, is critical to what we know about climate change and what we do about it.
The Antarctic's sea ice is shrinking and its ice shelves thinning. At a time when research from the continent is crucial, less is being produced.
A study published through the University of the Arctic, involving scientists from Umea University in Sweden and the University of Tasmania, found that globally the number of Antarctic and Southern Ocean publications peaked in 2021, then fell every year to 2024.
Matt King is one of the study authors and the director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science.
"I think you can tie the slowdown in outputs to an increase in costs of working in Antarctica, declines in budgets being made available to national Antarctic programmes and the universities," Professor King said.
"And for those [countries] seeing reduced outputs ... it could be read as 'we're not taking Antarctica as seriously as we did in the past'."
One of those countries seeing a decline in publications was Australia, along with the US, which has been overtaken by China as the leader in published papers for the first time.
"A lot of nations are sort of going backwards just at a time when we really need to advance our understanding of Antarctica," Professor King said.
In the US things could be about to get worse.
The United States' Antarctic program is run by the National Science Foundation, whose funding is set to be cut by 55 per cent in the 2026 fiscal year under the Trump administration.
There are also cuts being finalised for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which leads US Antarctic fisheries science, and the lease on the US icebreaker Nathaniel B. Palmer is also set to be terminated.
There are serious concerns about what that means for science in Antarctica, but also, influence.
Antarctica is governed by a treaty system, originally signed in 1959 by 12 countries, including Australia, to promote peace and science in the region.
Today, 58 countries are party to the Antarctic Treaty System, but only 29 can make binding decisions.
When it comes to the treaty, science is the true currency.
Jeff McGee is a professor of international law at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies.
He said when Antarctic Treaty meetings occurred, the countries that did the most science and had the strongest Antarctic logistics generally had the most weight.
Former US diplomat Evan Bloom said the US had historically been the biggest player — with the largest research station, the most scientists, the most tourists and often the largest investments.
"With the US pulling back on science, it will have long-term implications for US leadership and influence when it comes to governance on the continent," Mr Bloom said.
Professor McGee said if there were a dwindling of Antarctic science and logistics capacity from the US, other countries may try to fill the void.
"The most obvious countries that might do that are countries like China and perhaps even Russia," he told 7.30.
Russia has been increasing its presence in Antarctica, upgrading and reopening stations and building a runway.
Both China and Russia are signatories to the treaty system, which has traditionally been seen as one of the most successful treaties in international law.
But recently China and Russia have been accused of undermining conservation efforts in Antarctica, by blocking consensus on new marine parks and krill fisheries management.
Some academics have also raised concerns about "dual use technologies" on the continent.
"This is largely equipment relating to space research in Antarctica — telescopes and ground station receivers that can communicate with satellites," Professor McGee said.
The Antarctic treaty prohibits military activity.
Mr Bloom said dual use technologies needed to be watched.
"But at the same time, China are, like Russia, conducting legitimate science in Antarctica and they have a right to conduct that, that science," he said.
"So there are certainly areas where cooperation is possible, but it's also necessary when it comes to strategic rivals to keep an eye on what's going on in the national interests of countries like the US and Australia."
7.30 has contacted both the Chinese and Russian embassies.
Previously, China has said there were no geopolitical motives behind its Antarctic expansion and that its operations were "purely for scientific purposes".
Collaboration is key to Australia's engagement in Antarctica, and partnerships with a well-resourced US make field work and logistics easier.
Professor McGee said if the US were to pull back and the void to be filled by China or Russia, Australia would be concerned.
"We've worked very well with the Americans," he said.
"They're a close partner of ours in Antarctica, both in a logistics and science sense and also a diplomatic sense.
While the Trump administration hasn't made any official changes to Antarctic policy, Mr Bloom said the US recently sent a smaller-than-usual delegation to an Antarctic diplomatic meeting in Milan and contributed only a single paper.
"There wasn't a lot of change in terms of the basics of Antarctic policy — support for science or support for marine protection or concern about issues related to tourism," Mr Bloom said.
"But I think that's because it takes a long time, especially in the US, for a new administration to develop the details of its policy and developing Antarctic policy is not, I think, a real priority for the White House."
He said that meant there was still a window for other countries to nudge the US in the right direction.
"I think the Trump administration is not known for necessarily listening well to other countries, but I think that there are opportunities at this point to influence where it will land on a number of these policies.
"So I think it's important for Australia and other friends of the US to be talking to their counterparts and through diplomatic channels to try to explain the important role the Antarctic Treaty plays now, not just with respect to science, but with respect to ensuring that the region continues to be peaceful."
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