St. Cloud Quarterly Business Report finds local growth despite tariff worries
The newest edition of the St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, released June 26, found signs of healthy business activity for local companies, though business owners are still worried about impacts of national economic conditions at home.
Employment, wages and prices received for products all picked up this past quarter, the report found, which suggest some slight economic growth in the area. However, business owners' concerns about national economic conditions, namely tariffs, cast a shadow over the majority of survey responses.
King Banaian, a St. Cloud State University economics professor and director of the university's Center for Policy Research and Community Engagement, discussed the report's findings at Granite Innovations.
His presentation was titled "Negotiating the Wall of Worry." It addressed the theme of worry across much of the report.
"In terms of future conditions, I would say people are feeling good, but they're not super optimistic, but they feel like they're managing through whatever issues they see in the national environment," Banaian said.
Many business owners who participated in the survey used in the report were especially nervous about the impacts of tariffs, with 32% saying they did not know how tariffs would impact their business.
"Most of what we sell is imported directly or indirectly, and the constantly changing policies are making it very difficult for us and our clients to plan and navigate," a respondent cited in the report's review said.
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The Trump administration's new tariff rates are scheduled to restart July 8 after a 90-day pause, though there is a chance that the trade deal deadline could be extended, according to USA Today.
The majority of local business owners also plan to pass the costs of increased tariffs onto consumers, the report found, with 56% of respondents planning to pass most tariff costs onto consumers and another 22% planning to pass on all additional costs.
The report also found mixed responses on how tariffs may impact local businesses, with 37% of respondents expecting to be impacted negatively and 26% anticipating no impact at all. However, another 5% expect positive impacts, which Banaian said points to the diversity of companies in town, and this could be from business-to-business producers.
"When we talk to local businesses, they're aware of (tariffs), they're incorporating it into their plans, and they're not panicked about it," Banaian said. "They seem like they're in a place where they're willing to... muddle through."
The Quarterly Business Report also explored the anticipated impacts of a new Minnesota paid family and medical leave law that will take effect in January 2026. This law allows most workers to take up to 12 weeks of paid leave for the birth of a child, recovering from injuries or taking care of a parent in hospice.
Several lawmakers and business groups opposed the law due to concerns it could place stress on small business owners. A third of survey respondents said they've reached out to the government for guidance on the new policy and another third said they have reached out to state officials for relief.
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Despite concerns about national economic conditions and policy changes, the report found signs of local economic success in its review of local economic indicators.
The Leading Economic Indicators, six measurements that are part of each quarterly report, hinted at slight growth over the past quarter and a growth of 1.1% in local private employment over the next four to six months.
Professional employment, the St. Cloud Stock Price Index and current economic conditions all improved, though initial claims for unemployment insurance increased and there was no change in new business incorporations.
As a result, Banaian said current conditions hint at a slight downturn in the future. He also believes a recession is less likely than he thought at the time of the last Quarterly Business Report, but he is not ruling out the possibility.
Despite the mixed signals, Banaian commended the optimism of local business owners and said it is understandable to be worried about tariffs and other economic conditions.
"I'm not telling people not to worry; I don't mean that," he said. "I mean that the economy can continue to grow even while worrying because markets are really efficient processors of information... there's a base of optimism in our local leaders that recognizes those concerns and says, 'I'm going to be okay.'"
Teagan King covers business and development for the St. Cloud Times. She can be reached at teking@gannett.com.
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