The Braves Gave Up A 10-4 Lead In The Ninth, Is This Rock Bottom?

Forbes

15 hours ago

When the ninth inning of Thursday's game in Atlanta began, the Braves, holding a 10-4 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, had a 99.77% chance to win. If you had logged on to FanDuel before the first pitch of the ninth, you would have had to have wagered nearly $44,000 to win $1 betting on the Braves.
Scott Blewett then struck out Eugenio Suárez leading off the frame. At that moment, the Braves' chances of winning the game went up to 99.96%. So, you are saying there is a chance. The above wager then increased to nearly $227,000.
The next batter, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., homered on a 1-0 pitch, making the score 10-5. No matter, the chances still sat at 99.94%.
Tim Tawa then walked and advanced to second on defensive indifference. Alex Thomas then laced a homer to right, making the score 10-7. Now things were getting interesting. And yet, even with the fans at Truist Park beginning to hold their collective breath, Atlanta still had better than a 99% chance to win.
The next batter, Jose Herrera, walked, and that was that for Blewett (who hadn't quite yet). Corbin Carroll greeted the new pitcher, Raisel Iglesias, with a double, bringing the tying run to the plate. Reminder, there is still only one out. Shockingly, even with all of this activity, the Braves still win this game nearly 93 times out of 100.
Ketel Marte followed Carroll's double with an infield single, scoring one run, and putting the tying runs on base. For consistency, at this moment, the win percentage was down to 85.2%.
Geraldo Perdomo, having a great season, slashing .275/.373/.422, with 2.1 bWAR about a third of the way through the year, and 1-for-4 on the day with a double and an RBI, popped out to short for the second out. This unproductive at-bat felt like an omen…so close, but just not going to happen. When that second out was recorded, Atlanta moved back above 93% in their chances of winning this game.
Just a week after sprinting out of the dugout and colliding with his teammate rounding third to potentially score the winning run in a Triple-A game in Reno, Nevada, Ildemaro Vargas found himself in the batter's box representing the lead run in a wild game. On an 0-1 pitch, Vargas softly lined his first hit of the season into center field, scoring Carroll to make it a one-run game. And yet, Atlanta still had better an almost 87% chance to win.
Eugenio Suárez, who you will recall led off this frame with a strike out, stepped to the plate. The tying run was in scoring position, and the lead run, Vargas – no one's great base runner – on first. When the count ran to 2-and-2, the Braves had better than a 9-in-10 chance to win. That dropped to 86.4% when the count went full, as the runners (especially the not-fleet-of-foot Vargas at first) would be running on the pitch.
Suárez swung at what appeared to be ball four, an 89 MPH changeup on the inner half, but too close to take. He lined it down the left field line, allowing both runners to score, giving the Diamondbacks an 11-10 lead.
Eugenio Suarez may have swung at ball four.
-DFF
After a walk to Gurriel Jr., Tawa lined out to end the carnage.
The Braves got the tying run aboard in the bottom of the ninth (a Matt Olson walk), but the game ended when Marcell Ozuna grounded into a 6-4-3 double play.
The Braves had been on a 766-game winning streak in games that they led by at least six runs going into the ninth inning. The Diamondbacks, in their franchise's history, had never won a game in which they trailed by six runs or more going into the ninth inning (0-419). That all changed Thursday after at Truist Park.
Atlanta started the season losing their first six games. They have battled to get back into contention, getting over .500 (24-23) about two weeks ago. Since then, they are 3-11, including Thursday's ignominious defeat. There is still a lot of baseball to be played, and the Braves cannot play a lot worse than they have at various times this season. The Phillies have faltered. The Mets are not a juggernaut. Atlanta can still make the playoffs. In the aftermath of their loss to Arizona, former Brave (and potential future Hall of Famer) Craig Kimbrell was called up from Triple-A to (hopefully) improve the bullpen, which currently has a 3.90 ERA and has converted only 10 of 21 save opportunities.
After Thursday's game, Hall of Famer and Brave broadcaster said, 'If you were looking for rock bottom, this might be it.' Well, if so, there is nowhere else to go but up.