Slumping Knicks have another shot to put away pesky Pistons
On the May Day 2025 edition of the 'Morning Take', EmmaKate Austin dives into the Knicks' intense first-round playoff series against the Pistons before tonight's crucial Game 6, where New York looks to finish off their first round series against Detroit in the Motor City.
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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
Mets trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch
NEW YORK — The trade deadline is 50 days away, and the Mets are feeling good. New York's 5-0 win over the Nationals Wednesday pushed them 20 games over .500, good for first in the National League East. But the Mets need only look back 365 days to know how much can change for a team from the start of June until the trade deadline at the end of July. This time last year, the Mets looked more like sellers, their magical summer not yet kick-started by a first pitch from a fast-food mascot. (That was 364 days ago, to be precise.) Advertisement Having already thought through where the Mets might want to add in July, let's take a step back and examine some larger context that may dictate how the Mets approach the deadline. The worst place to be on July 31 is backed into a corner. That's where the Mets were in 2021, when they needed to do something — probably involving an infielder with Francisco Lindor out for a while — and ended up trading Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Báez. The Mets shouldn't face that kind of pressure next month. Entering play Wednesday, their chances to make the postseason sat above 90 percent at FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference. Their chances to win the National League East were 86 percent at FanGraphs and 80 percent at BP. Last week, New York won more games than the other four teams in the division combined. It's in a good spot. However, anything can transpire over the seven weeks separating now from the deadline. Going back to 2021, neither Lindor nor Jacob deGrom were hurt until early July, a sequence of events that started the Mets' tailspin in the second half of that season. A major injury can alter the tenor of New York's season. Furthermore, nobody's declaring the NL East over this early in June, not with the talent in the division and the aggressive track records of Philadelphia's Dave Dombrowski and Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos at the trade deadline. Even if New York feels comfortable in its division lead come late July, the Cubs and Dodgers are likely to offer legitimate competition for a first-round bye. There should still be plenty of reason to seek improvement. In his first trade deadline with the Mets, Stearns executed in adding to the margins of the roster without sacrificing much in prospect value. New York brought in a trio of relievers (Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazobán), an extra outfielder (Jesse Winker) and a depth starter (Paul Blackburn) — many of whom played key roles in their run in September and October. Advertisement There will likely be room for a move or two like those again this year, especially in the bullpen. But Stearns has proven so swiftly adept at adding depth to New York's roster that it's not all that easy to find obvious opportunities for upgrades. Maybe that dynamic, combined with the Mets' ambitions to advance come October, leaves space for a bigger, more aggressive play. During his time in Milwaukee, Stearns rarely made big swings at the deadline. (The acquisitions of Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop in 2018 are probably the biggest deadline deals he's made leading a front office.) So there isn't that track record of, say, Dombrowski or Anthopoulos pulling the trigger to add a talent like David Price (which those two did in consecutive summers a decade ago). But there's a good chance the Mets enter the last week of July in a better position than any of those Brewers teams. (New York already has a larger run differential through 66 games than any of Stearns' Milwaukee teams did a week ahead of the deadline.) This is a team that should harbor real thoughts about winning the World Series, and a big move could prove pivotal in doing so. Let's return one more time to 2021, when the Mets made that ill-fated deal with the Cubs involving Crow-Armstrong. New York struck out that week in its efforts to acquire Minnesota's José Berríos, largely because its farm system was too top-heavy. The Mets had the front-line guys other teams wanted, but they didn't have the depth pieces to either polish off a trade or make it more palatable for their system. That farm system is in better shape now, although it is still not one of the very best in baseball. The Mets will likely want to stay away from trading from the very top of their system, but they now possess intriguing talents, especially on the pitching side, up and down their affiliates — the kind they can package together to consolidate into one good major-league player coming back the other way. (Photo of Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
MLB Mock Draft 2025 2.0: Aiva Arquette jumps to No. 1; another Holliday in Colorado?
Here's my second attempt to project who might go in the 2025 MLB Draft's first round, which runs 27 picks as the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all got the wrist-slap for spending more than the Commissioner's Recommended Daily Allowance on their major-league payrolls and saw their first picks pushed back 10 spots each. Advertisement As always, this is entirely about who I hear and think could go in these spots, not my own opinion on who I would select — that is what my Big Board is for (you'll also find more in-depth analysis about each player in the Big Board) — and is based on what I've heard from various industry sources along with my understanding of what each team tends to favor in the draft. With that out of the way, onto Mock Draft 2.0. (Note: Player tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale.) I'll probably say this in every mock until the last one — I don't think we'll know who the Nats are taking until at least the day of the draft. They're still considering at least six players, maybe even up to eight, as there's no consensus No. 1 prospect in the class. I believe the mix includes Arquette, all three top college lefties (Liam Doyle, Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold), and Ethan Holliday. I think it's much less likely that they take Seth Hernandez, given the much higher risk of high school pitchers and the Nats' very limited history of taking prep arms in the first round: since Mike Rizzo first took over as GM, they've taken a high school pitcher with their first pick only twice — Lucas Giolito (2012) and Mason Denaburg (2018). Everyone expects the Angels to take Doyle or Kade Anderson and then put whoever they select in the majors before the ink is dry on the contract. Right now Anderson is going somewhere in the top four picks. I think Seattle would take Anderson even if Liam Doyle is on the board. My sense is that the Rockies are heaviest on these four guys — Holliday and the three I have going ahead of him. I don't have any sense of what order they might have them in on their hypothetical board right now (because no teams have actual draft boards up a month before the draft). Let me just pre-empt anyone saying 'but they have Masyn Winn!!?!?!' by pointing out that 1) you do not draft for need in baseball, ever, unless you want to lose your job and 2) Willits is 17 years old, so by the time he's likely to be ready for the majors, Winn will be approaching free agency. Anyway, I think the Cards would take any of the four players I have going ahead of them over Willits. They might also still be the highest spot for Kyson Witherspoon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab a college bat like Wehiwa Aloy instead of going with a high school player. I do not have a good feel for whether they'd take a high school arm here. In this scenario I've concocted in my head, which you are now dutifully reading, I think the Pirates would be leaning towards Arnold, Billy Carlson or Seth Hernandez. Kyson Witherspoon and Tyler Bremner probably start to see action here. The Marlins are clearly willing to take higher-risk high school players up top, having done so last year with two position players — P.J. Morlando and Carter Johnson. (They took two high school pitchers with their first two picks in 2023, but that was under the previous regime.) I could also see them in on Hernandez's Corona teammate Billy Carlson and I think they might be the floor for Eli Willits. Everyone says the Blue Jays want a shortstop of some sort, and this is a good year to want a shortstop, as it turns out, with various flavors of shortstop available — college, high school, good defenders, good hitters, and so on. Given the seven players I have going above them, I think their choice would be between Carlson, the best of the high school group remaining, and Wehiwa Aloy, the best of the college group remaining. If they don't like the shortstop options, I think they'd go with a college pitcher. Irish is one of two names who've really seemed to move up over the last month or so, as teams have become more comfortable with the idea of just taking Irish — who has only caught a couple of games since he missed two weeks in March with a fractured scapula — as an outfielder and letting him go rake. I would bet more on the Reds going with a college player than a high school one, and could see them on Kyson Witherspoon, Wehiwa Aloy or maybe Tyler Bremner. Bremner is the other name who's moved up a lot, as he's mostly recovered from a bad start to the year and posted some fantastic numbers over the season's final month. He came into the year with a ton of hype as the top college righty in the draft, so there's an argument that this would be excellent value for the spot. I believe they'd take any of those college lefties over him if they got here. I've also heard them with Steele Hall and Kruz Schoolcraft. I don't think Seth Hernandez would get past this spot. The Athletics went heavy on college guys last year, and 11 months out, it looks like one of their best drafts in some time, with Nick Kurtz in the majors and Tommy White and Gage Jump both performing at or above expectations. They've also been a 'take the obvious guy' team for probably 10 years or so; outside of the year they took Max Muncy the Younger, they've taken who people thought they would take, and it's been around the industry consensus at that spot. So this year, that's guys like Aloy, Jace LaViolette, and maybe Tyler Bremner or Kyson Witherspoon if they get here. Cunningham is near the top of Texas' short list, although I'm not sure if the Rangers take him regardless of who's here. I thought they'd be a fit for Jace LaViolette, not because he's local but because he does some of the things their draft model seems to value; and I've heard them before with JoJo Parker. Parker's market seems to be somewhere in this 10-15 range. I've heard the Giants as Tyler Bremner's possible floor, and could see them with Billy Carlson or Kyson Witherspoon. The Rays have three extra picks this year — their own competitive balance pick, another they acquired in the Jeffrey Springs trade with the Athletics, and a pick because their second-rounder backed out of a deal in 2024 — so they can be very creative and try to move money around. Don't be surprised if they go under-slot here to try to go over-slot with those later selections. That said, Witherspoon would be a slot pick here, as would Marek Houston (whom draft model teams seem to like more than scout-heavy teams) or Wehiwa Aloy. Straight speculation on my part, but I wonder if they'd take Jace LaViolette and hope their development staff can 'fix' his contact issues. This is more of a bet on the Red Sox taking a player who was generally considered among the top bats in the class coming into the spring but who had a rough spring than any specific tie between the two. The Red Sox went very college-heavy last year, taking just one high school player in the top 10 rounds and only one more after that. I could also see them on Gavin Kilen or Ike Irish. Houston has turned out to be a divisive player even among teams that lean towards college guys. If your draft model really favors contact, you've got Houston ranked highly, but if it favors exit velocity and similar data, it's got him much lower down. The Twins have branched out from their contact-over-all-else days, but they are still one of a few teams (like Pittsburgh and Cleveland) to particularly focus on it — not a bad thing in our high-strikeout era. I could also see them on Gavin Kilen or JoJo Parker if Parker gets this far. The Cubs like college hitters who hit the ball hard and control the zone — well, most teams like those things, to be fair, but their last two first-round picks were exemplars of the type in Matt Shaw and the since-traded Cam Smith. Kilen is very much that flavor of hitter, and in the scenario I've laid out here, he's the last of the top tier of those guys; after that, it'd be players with more questions like Devin Taylor or Mason Neville, at which point I have to think the Cubs would go another direction. Yes, everyone says the Diamondbacks will take Slater de Brun because he's a fun-sized high school outfielder, and maybe they will, but I don't think that's a fait accompli at pick 18, not least because they might be able to get him with their compensation pick at 29. Fien was the best hitter on the showcase circuit last summer/fall and should have been a top-10 pick, but he struggled this spring and looked like a different hitter. That was Caleb Bonemer's story in 2024, more or less, and the White Sox may have gotten a steal with him in the second round. I won't believe Mike Elias and company are taking a pitcher in the first round until they actually do it — not that I've heard them doing so anyway. It's only hitters, at least according to rumor, with an emphasis on guys with great batted-ball data. Neyens has some of the best power in the high school class and the data backs it up. I could see them as a floor for Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, or maybe Houston since they took Griff O'Ferrall, another high-contact shortstop without much power, with a comp pick last year. I've heard Pierce as high as 12 to Texas, although I think the back half of the round is more likely. I can't imagine the Brewers passing on Gavin Kilen or Gavin Fien, given the way their draft model seems to work, although they could also start off the next tier of college pitching. The Astros have leaned heavily towards college guys under GM Dana Brown, part preference and part recognition that they're in win-now mode. There aren't many college players left on the board in this scenario that would fit here, guys with a plus tool or elite skill and who also look like they could help soon. Quick has the huge velocity and potential for a couple of above-average pitches, and he could move fast to the upper minors next year once he's two years off Tommy John. Devin Taylor might be their type of bat, but Brown prefers more athletic players, so maybe Mason Neville would fit? I've also heard them with California prep infielder Cooper Flemming. Atlanta has gone for pitching in the first round in the last five drafts, so it's probably not a surprise to see them with an arm here. Wood has some of the best stuff of any starter in the class, but missed time early this spring with a shoulder issue, so some teams are probably going to be out due to the medical (about which I haven't heard any details at all, and probably won't until after the draft). I did hear them earlier in the spring with shortstop Steele Hall. The Royals are likely to try for big upside here, even though they're picking much lower than usual — and good thing, as they were ineligible for the lottery in this draft anyway — with Schoolcraft coming up several times as a top target for them. I'd be a little surprised to see a college guy here just given who's likely to still be on the board, unless it's a power arm like Gage Wood or Patrick Forbes. Tigers scouting director Mark Conner's first draft, the 2023 class, looks like a home run already, and their 2024 first-rounder Bryce Rainer was off to a terrific start before a season-ending shoulder injury. (Second-rounder Owen Hall is also out with a serious shoulder issue, unfortunately.) They're drafting much later this year, but I'd still bet on them going with a high school player, and de Brun fits their recent preference for guys with promising hit tools. When in doubt, give the Padres a high-upside high school kid, right? Hall's an 80-grade runner who stays at shortstop and who is very young, as he reclassified into the 2025 draft from 2026. I've heard them with Schoolcraft, because everyone assumes they wouldn't pass up a 6-foot-8 lefty with big velocity after taking a 6-foot-4 lefty (Kash Mayfield) with big velocity last year. I could also see them going for Gage Wood or Patrick Forbes for the same reasons I attached those names to the Royals. The Phillies have gone the high school route in the first round every year under scouting director Brian Barber, always up-the-middle position players or hard-throwing pitchers. Fisher checks a lot of boxes for a high school pitcher in general and for what the Phillies like, as he's a two-sport guy with big stuff and a delivery that works. They did go way off the board last year with their first-rounder, centerfielder Dante Nori, who is currently struggling in Low A. I've gotten the consistent sense in the last month that high school lefty Jack Bauer, who has hit 102 mph this spring, is no longer likely to go in the first round as his control and his slider have both backed up, but if anyone does take Bauer in the first anyway it would be the Phillies. I could see them on shortstop/pitcher Josh Hammond as well. Conrad, who won't turn 21 until July 5, was surging towards the first round when he hurt his shoulder, requiring surgery that ended his season before scouts could see him against the heart of the ACC. The Guardians have done this before, taking an injured Chase DeLauter, who was still 20 years old at the draft, with their first-round pick in 2021. They're as model-heavy a drafting team as there is, which could juice guys with good batted-ball data like Mason Neville, Charles Davalan, Devin Taylor, or maybe even Luke Stevenson. (Photo illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Sarah Phipps / The Oklahoman / USA Today Network via Imagn Images, Saul Young / News Sentinel / USA Today Network via Imagn Images, John Rivera / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
The Knicks knew they wanted to fire Tom Thibodeau. After that? Well, you're seeing it
INDIANAPOLIS — Firing Tom Thibodeau was the plan. For all of you who keep wondering what coaching search playbook the New York Knicks are working from, confused by the fact that they didn't have a realistic replacement in mind when they fired the most successful coach in their last quarter century on June 3 and are now trying to steal other team's head coaches as if this is an episode of 'NBA Bachelor,' you're missing the revelation here. Advertisement The Knicks, and owner James Dolan most of all, were done with Thibodeau long before he led them to their first East finals appearance since 2000. Everything that came after the choice to send him packing, with the Knicks having now been denied permission to speak to another team's head coach five times (that we know of), was a wild goose chase the likes of which we've never seen in the Association. By the time Game 3 of the finals tipped off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday, when so many front office types and staffers on hand were chatting about the Knicks nonsense before the game, Chicago's Billy Donovan had been added to to the list that already included the Houston Rockets' Ime Udoka, Minnesota's Chris Finch, Atlanta's Quin Snyder and Dallas' Jason Kidd. While there are still some who wonder if Kidd might try to push his way out, or perhaps inspire Mavericks ownership to give him an extension in lieu of such a move, the Mavericks have been adamant internally that Kidd isn't going anywhere. For the sake of additional context, I spent part of Wednesday evening trying to figure out which other current head coaches the Knicks might have attempted to contact. And while there were no new names revealed, it's worth sharing that league sources say the Knicks did not request permission to speak to this elite coaching crew: The Pacers' Rick Carlisle, the Warriors' Steve Kerr, the Bucks' Doc Rivers, the Clippers' Ty Lue and the Lakers' JJ Redick. Now the coaches who were pursued are all very capable and widely-respected, to be sure, but the fact that the Knicks have chosen to conduct the search in such an audacious manner tells you all you need to know about the root cause of this ridiculousness. They were done with Thibs a while ago — never mind that he led the way on a historic run and was reportedly still owed at least $30 million on his deal. And chances are, the only thing that could have saved him was winning the whole damn thing. Advertisement The rumblings about Thibodeau being in trouble were there before the playoffs, when the noise was loud enough to inspire several phone calls from yours truly to inquire about this topic. Some people close to Thibodeau said they'd be stunned if the Knicks did something that rash. Others close to the Knicks insisted that all was well — especially once they downed Detroit in the first round and upset the defending champion Celtics in the semifinals. This is hardly the first time a coach was facing an all-or-nothing sort of playoff challenge behind the scenes. But unlike Mike Budenholzer in 2021, when his Milwaukee Bucks won the franchise's first title in 50 years, and after he was known to be in serious peril entering the postseason, Thibodeau fell short in those East finals against Indiana. The axe fell in stunning fashion three days later, with our James Edwards and Fred Katz expertly detailing all the reasons, and now the league at large is watching the Madison Square Garden mess that has ensued ever since. Yet with the Knicks seemingly shooting air balls left and right in pursuit of employed head coaches, league sources say there is an increased Knicks focus on two former coaches who don't require permission to pursue: Mike Brown (last with the Sacramento Kings) and Taylor Jenkins (formerly of the Memphis Grizzlies). There could certainly be more names of (available) head coaches emerging soon, as a league source said the Knicks are planning on finalizing that list in the coming days. But Brown, in particular, profiles as an interesting option given the complicated nature of the Knicks' inner circle. While Dolan is the holder of supreme Knicks power, and team president Leon Rose is the undisputed leader of the front office, executive vice president William Wesley (aka 'Worldwide Wes') continues to have the kind of influence that matters a great deal during times like these. For Brown's purposes, it certainly doesn't hurt his case that his close relationship with Wesley dates back to the mid-2000s days when Brown was coaching LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers (Wesley, at that time, was a league-wide power broker and one of James' primary confidantes). As was the case with Kidd and Udoka, Brown interviewed for the Knicks position in 2020 before it went to Thibodeau. Yet while he didn't get the job back then, with some believing that Thibodeau had already been deemed the unofficial choice by the time Brown's interview took place, league sources say he left a very strong impression. He was hired by the Kings two summers later, then went on to deliver the best two-year stretch in nearly two decades for the long-struggling organization before getting fired midway through this season. Advertisement As for Jenkins, he became the Grizzlies' all-time leader in wins during his six seasons, only to get fired with just a few weeks left in this regular season and be replaced by assistant coach Tuomas Iisalo. The move, which came after a stretch in which Memphis lost 13 of 22 games heading into the postseason, did not have the desired effect on the rest of their run (unless getting swept by Oklahoma City was the goal). His glowing reputation, it's safe to say, remains intact. To have all of this unfold with the Pacers somehow still persevering, meanwhile, is quite fitting. The same team that handed the Bucks a gentleman's sweep, then did the same to the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers before downing New York in six games, is suddenly looking worthy of being an NBA champion after downing Oklahoma City in Game 3 and going up 2-1 in these finals. By proxy, that means the Knicks might not have been as far off as they previously thought. If they were thinking at all.
