Is World War 3 Looming? Israel-Iran Conflict Raises Global Security Concerns; Experts Analyse…
On June 13, Israel launched strikes against Iran to target its alleged nuclear programme, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Following this, Jerusalem not only struck the nuclear facility in Isfahan but also killed several top Iranian military officials and targeted the Iranian Ministry of Defence headquarters.
In response to the attacks from Israel, Tehran launched ballistic missile strikes and deployed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) against Israel. This exchange of fire resulted in casualties on both sides; moreover, as Israel and Iran continue their military engagement, its consequences and implications could be felt globally.
Retired Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak explained that although the conflict is currently regional, its ripple effects will not be confined to just the two nations.
"There could be a range of consequences, as the nations could impact the Red Sea, oil prices, trade, and the movement of goods and services," he warned.
He also highlighted that the fallout could lead to increased trade costs and higher insurance premiums.
Multi-front War Possible?
According to International Affairs and Strategic Analyst Naval Captain (retired) Shyam Kumar, Israel's objective is clear - stop Iran's nuclear weapons programme. He clarified that a multi-front war does not seem likely as the situation is expected to remain contained.
"The Middle East is very progressive; they do not want to come to the front to fight as an Arab world," he added.
He continued, "I feel that the war would not escalate to a global level - it will be contained within just a few days, as long as Israel achieves its objectives and halts Iran's programme to a point from which it cannot recover."
Effect on US, Russia and China?
Describing the current conflict, Kumar said, "The Middle East is flaming, and it affects other countries as well."
He explained that from both a security and economic standpoint, Russia, China, and the United States can sustain themselves.
However, they may still face indirect consequences.
"If the conflict prolongs, the world economy, the Red Sea, and key routes of communication will be affected. Oil prices are already rising. So indirectly, it affects the world and these three countries," he said.
Effect on India as well?
Focusing on India's ties with both Tehran and Tel Aviv, Kak said, "India has very close relations with Israel and Iran, so there are ramifications for all countries. If the situation spirals, then we have 9 million people living in the region who send remittances to India worth about $50 billion every year."
From a geopolitical, defence and strategic standpoint, Israel has also developed strong ties with India.
"We have interests with both countries, and if this spreads, it will also impact other dimensions of India-West Asia relations," he said.
He added that the end of the conflict is not in sight at the moment, and elaborated, "Israel says its purpose was to ensure that Iran's nuclear weapons capability is set back by a couple of years. I doubt whether that has happened, because Iran is a very determined state, and it has attained a certain level of technology. It may perhaps return to the same nuclear stage in months instead of years."
He also emphasised that both Russia and the United States can play diplomatic roles in helping to de-escalate the current crisis.
Kumar, on the other hand, brought up former US President Donald Trump and his rationale that since Iran has not killed any Americans, there would be no reason for the United States to get involved.
He added that tactically, militarily, economically and politically, the United States is supporting Israel.
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