Climate 200 Teals, Independents Surge Across Multiple Electorates

Epoch Times

07-05-2025

It's not just Labor that's staging a return in the 2025 federal election.
The Climate 200-backed 'Teals' and other independents, who first shook the system in 2022, continue to be an influential force eroding the traditional dominance of the two major parties.
While several seats remain undecided, current counts highlight the staying presence of independents who are not only absorbing a major fraction of the primary vote, but are also playing a significant role directing preferences.
Teal Independents Surging in Once-Safe Seats
The safe Labor seat of Bean in the Australian Capital Territory is facing a strong challenge from Teal independent Jessie Price, who is pushing sitting Labor MP David Smith to the brink.
As of May 7, the vote count has see-sawed between both candidates in the seat Labor won in 2022, with a two-party preferred 25.9 percent margin.
This time, Price has won 26.7 percent of the primary vote in her first outing, taking support from the Greens, Liberal Party, and other minor parties.
In the once-safe Liberal seat of Bradfield in northern Sydney, the high-profile clash between Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian and Teal independent Nicolette Boele continues.
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Kapterian holds a razor-thin lead with 50.1 percent while Boele trails closely at 49.9 percent—a mere 195-vote difference.
While Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson saw local Teal, Ellie Smith, absorb 12.5 percent of the primary vote, which was likely redirected to victorious Labor candidate Ali France.
Backed by over $10 million from Simon Holmes à Court's Climate 200, Teal candidates—mostly professional women with local community roots—have proven their staying power.
Climate 200 backs independents have largely campaigned on their support for stronger climate change issues, and have appealed to working professional voters and women looking for alternative candidates.
A early morning moped rider passes political signage outside Bondi Surf Bathers' Life Saving Club polling booth in Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia on May 3, 2025.
LisaNot Just the Teals
Muslim Votes Matter candidates in western Sydney also managed to capture large swathes of the electorate, but fell short of winning.
In Watson, independent Ziad Basyouny secured 15 percent of the primary vote on his first outing against Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, who won 49 percent.
While pharmacist, Ahmed Ouf, managed to secure 20 percent of the primary vote against Education Minister Jason Clare's 46.45 percent in the sat of Blaxland.
Former party members were also able to drag a portion of voters with them.
In New South Wales (NSW), Independent Andrew Gee, who left the Nationals in 2022, retained his seat as an independent after winning 23.9 percent of the primary vote.
Overall, Gee secured a two-party preferred vote of 56.3 percent over the Nationals new candidate Sam Farraway on 43.7 percent, a swing of over 15 percent in a seat previously considered safe for the Nationals.
Farraway's primary vote dropped by 17.4 percent.
While in the eastern Victorian seat of Monash, two independent candidates including Teal Deb Leonard, and former Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent secured 17.3 percent and 10.3 percent of the vote, respectively.
The Liberal Party's candidate Mary Aldred is currently leading with 32.4 percent of the vote.
A Reckoning for the Two-Party System
Graham Young, executive director and pollster at the Australian Institute for Progress, says the trend is driven by eroding confidence in the two-party system.
'In fact, you could probably use the independent vote to measure the implied competence of the 'uniparty,'' Young told The Epoch Times.
He noted that about one-third of voters opted for a candidate outside the Coalition or Labor this election.
'In the early 70s, fewer than 10 percent voted for minor parties and independents,' he said.
Though preferences often bring votes back to major parties, Young sees the initial support for independents as a clear protest against policy and representation failures.
Traditionally, independents were hyper-localised, like Ted Mack in North Sydney or Cathy McGowan in Indi.
But the new wave, specifically the Teals, were backed by strategic funding and professional campaigning.
'They target mostly upper-middle-class seats held by the Liberal Party that have a low Labor vote, but where a significant minority of Liberal voters are not aligned with the party on mostly three issues—climate change, women in politics, and corruption,' Young said.
He likens the model to a political franchise rather than true independents.
'If they can peel off enough Liberals, and marry them to tactically voting Labor and Greens voters, they have the potential to win these seats on preferences.'
Teals Featured Heavily Across Many Seats
In Wentworth, high-profile teal MP Allegra Spender has comfortably retained her seat against Liberal candidate Ro Knox. Spender achieved 56.7 percent, ahead of Knox's 43.3 percent, securing a second term in this once-blue-ribbon seat.
In Flinders, Victoria, the Teal independent Ben Smith is now the main challenger to Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie.
While in Kooyong, independent Monique Ryan, is locked in a see sawing battle with Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer.
In the neighbouring Goldstein, former Liberal MP Tim Wilson looks likely to secure his former seat against incumbent Teal Zoe Daniel.
While in Wannon, regional western Victoria, Shadow Minister Dan Tehan narrowly retained his seat against Teal independent Alex Dyson, and Labor's Agriculture Minister Julie Collins has just managed to fend of anti-salmon farming campaigner and Teal Peter George in Franklin, Tasmania.
Collins retained the seat with 57.3 percent against George's 42.7 percent.