Japan Just Caught Up With the Rest of the World
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It's not just US exceptionalism that has taken a beating this year. The same can be said for Japan's status as the exception to all economic rules.
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Stellantis warns of $1.7B US tariff impact in 2025 Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Carney says US trade talks in 'intense phase' The Canadian Press reports: Read more here. The Canadian Press reports: Read more here. Analysts say EU-US trade deal could add up to $19 billion in pharma industry costs The recent trade deal announced between the United States and the European Union is raising concerns in different industries about potential costs. The pharmaceutical industry, specifically, is estimated to take on an extra billion dollars based on new data. Reuters reports: Read more here. The recent trade deal announced between the United States and the European Union is raising concerns in different industries about potential costs. The pharmaceutical industry, specifically, is estimated to take on an extra billion dollars based on new data. Reuters reports: Read more here. 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US and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting this week for at least two days of trade talks as markets continue to focus on relations between the two superpowers and whether stiff tariff rates will be delayed again. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports on what to expect: Read more here. Analysis: Out-gunned Europe accepts least-worst US trade deal Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Clock is ticking for a US-China trade deal. Negotiators are meeting to buy more time CNN reports: Read more here. CNN reports: Read more here. 'Donald Trump ate Ursula von der Leyen for breakfast': How EU leaders are reacting to the US trade deal Europe's reaction to its trade deal with the US is decidedly mixed so far. As we detailed earlier, the deal represents the "least-worst" option for Europe, which was facing 30% duties on its imports to the US. So EU leaders have put on a brave face, saying that they hope this breakthrough is but the first step toward a more favorable, longer-term agreement. Bloomberg rounded up some initial reaction. One that stood out: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Trump ally: From the German chancellor: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the agreement "sustainable": France took a more hawkish approach: Finally, from Slovakia: Read more here. Europe's reaction to its trade deal with the US is decidedly mixed so far. As we detailed earlier, the deal represents the "least-worst" option for Europe, which was facing 30% duties on its imports to the US. So EU leaders have put on a brave face, saying that they hope this breakthrough is but the first step toward a more favorable, longer-term agreement. Bloomberg rounded up some initial reaction. One that stood out: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Trump ally: From the German chancellor: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the agreement "sustainable": France took a more hawkish approach: Finally, from Slovakia: Read more here. Why Big Alcohol needs US tariff relief in five charts European Union wine and spirits producers could emerge as one of the few winners in the US-EU trade deal which was agreed on Sunday. Reuters reports: Shares in Pernod, Diageo and Campari initially rose in early trade. But they stood 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.3% lower by 0707 GMT. Shares in Remy fell 2.2%. Alcohol is among the EU's top exports to the United States, worth about $10.5 billion in 2024, according to Eurostat data, with certain products like Remy Martin cognac and champagne required to be produced in specific European regions. The United States accounts for about 18% of exports for another exclusively French product, champagne. For cognac makers, the U.S. tariffs represent a fresh challenge after producers of the drink managed this month to avert the threat of duties of up to around 35% from China. For Spanish and Italian wines, around 14% and 24% of total exports, respectively, are sold in the United States. European Union wine and spirits producers could emerge as one of the few winners in the US-EU trade deal which was agreed on Sunday. Reuters reports: Shares in Pernod, Diageo and Campari initially rose in early trade. But they stood 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.3% lower by 0707 GMT. Shares in Remy fell 2.2%. Alcohol is among the EU's top exports to the United States, worth about $10.5 billion in 2024, according to Eurostat data, with certain products like Remy Martin cognac and champagne required to be produced in specific European regions. The United States accounts for about 18% of exports for another exclusively French product, champagne. For cognac makers, the U.S. tariffs represent a fresh challenge after producers of the drink managed this month to avert the threat of duties of up to around 35% from China. For Spanish and Italian wines, around 14% and 24% of total exports, respectively, are sold in the United States. Stock in focus after US/EU trade deal: ASML Semiconductor play ASML (ASML) getting a lot of mentions on the Street this morning as a winner from the US/EU trade deal. Shares are up nearly 5% in pre-market trading. I would note ASML just a week ago issued weak guidance that hammered the stock, so be mindful of that. Here's what JP Morgan had to say this morning: "ASML had indicated in its Q2 results that it saw hesitation (and thus lack of orders) from customers to order tools for their new US fabs due to the risk of tariffs on semiconductor equipment. If this information from the US on zero tariffs on semiconductor equipment is correct then this would be very positive for ASML in particular, but also for VAT. Other semiconductor equipment companies in Europe, such as ASM International ( manufacture their tools outside the EU and thus deals with countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and the US will be important for those companies." Semiconductor play ASML (ASML) getting a lot of mentions on the Street this morning as a winner from the US/EU trade deal. Shares are up nearly 5% in pre-market trading. I would note ASML just a week ago issued weak guidance that hammered the stock, so be mindful of that. Here's what JP Morgan had to say this morning: "ASML had indicated in its Q2 results that it saw hesitation (and thus lack of orders) from customers to order tools for their new US fabs due to the risk of tariffs on semiconductor equipment. If this information from the US on zero tariffs on semiconductor equipment is correct then this would be very positive for ASML in particular, but also for VAT. Other semiconductor equipment companies in Europe, such as ASM International ( manufacture their tools outside the EU and thus deals with countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and the US will be important for those companies." Donald Trump freezes export controls to secure trade deal with China The FT reported on Monday that President Donald Trump has frozen restrictions on technology exports to China in order to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing and to help secure a meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, which is in charge of export controls, has been advised to avoid tough moves on China, according to eight people, including current and former US officials. The US and China are due to meet in Stockholm on Monday for a third round of trade talks following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The FT reports: Read more here (subscription required). The FT reported on Monday that President Donald Trump has frozen restrictions on technology exports to China in order to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing and to help secure a meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, which is in charge of export controls, has been advised to avoid tough moves on China, according to eight people, including current and former US officials. The US and China are due to meet in Stockholm on Monday for a third round of trade talks following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The FT reports: Read more here (subscription required). Heineken cheers EU-US trade deal as tariff problems grow Dutch brewer Heineken (HKHHY, said on Monday that it welcomed the trade deal between the European Union and the US and that it was weighing all options to deal with growing tariff challenges in the long term, including shifting manufacturing. Reuters reports: Read more here. Dutch brewer Heineken (HKHHY, said on Monday that it welcomed the trade deal between the European Union and the US and that it was weighing all options to deal with growing tariff challenges in the long term, including shifting manufacturing. Reuters reports: Read more here. Japan expects 1%-2% of $550 billion US fund to be investment Japan confirmed that only a small part, just 1% to 2%, of the $550 billion deal with the US will be actual investment. Most of the money will be in the form of loans, according to Japan's trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. Akazawa said that Tokyo will save roughly $68 billion through lower tariff rates in its deal with the US. The details revealed by Akazawa on Saturday via an interview with public broadcaster NHK, suggest the Japanese may end up giving up much less than at first glance. The $550 billion investment framework combines loans, investments and loan guarantees provided by financial institutions backed by the Japanese government. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan confirmed that only a small part, just 1% to 2%, of the $550 billion deal with the US will be actual investment. Most of the money will be in the form of loans, according to Japan's trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. Akazawa said that Tokyo will save roughly $68 billion through lower tariff rates in its deal with the US. The details revealed by Akazawa on Saturday via an interview with public broadcaster NHK, suggest the Japanese may end up giving up much less than at first glance. The $550 billion investment framework combines loans, investments and loan guarantees provided by financial institutions backed by the Japanese government. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. VW's Audi cuts full-year outlook, citing tariffs and restructuring Following Volkswagen's ( VWAGY) guidance cut last week, the German carmakers premium brand Audi has also cut its full-year guidance, citing the impact of higher US import tariffs and restructuring expenses. Reuters reports: Read more here. Following Volkswagen's ( VWAGY) guidance cut last week, the German carmakers premium brand Audi has also cut its full-year guidance, citing the impact of higher US import tariffs and restructuring expenses. Reuters reports: Read more here. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why markets don't seem to care about the fuzzy details of Trump's trade deals
President Trump's recent trade framework announcements have included sketchy initial details that can take days to fill in and sometimes are even contradicted by those on the other side of the table. Yet markets don't seem to mind this emerging pattern. In fact, the signal investors are apparently taking from these pacts from Europe to Japan to Vietnam is one of increased stability down the road. Even vague details are perhaps better than the ups and downs of negotiations — or the worse outcomes that had previously been on the table. As Mark Malek, Siebert Financial CIO, put it recently on Yahoo Finance, what is known about these complex deals to investors "basically fit into an index card [and] they are basically leaving it all to us to figure out." But Malek added that markets have remained stable because of the overall signal that worst case scenarios are being avoided "so I think for the most part we're happy." Whether that happiness continues remains to be seen with plenty of moving trade pieces still on offer. Negotiations continue with Europe as trade watchers await a formal joint statement on the deal and negotiators still apparently at work to lock in legally binding text. Other major talks — like those with India — remain outstanding and talks with China continue Tuesday in Sweden amid continuing expectation-setting from both sides that another 90-day pause is in the offing. The economic effects of the deals are also starting to come into focus based on what details are available. The latest analysis from the Budget Lab at Yale found that consumers are set to face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.2% — the highest since 1934 — if all the tariffs announced through Monday go forward. Despite that over 90 year high, markets have continued to be relatively sanguine. Another way to explain the market's relatively subdued response was put forth by Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research. He outlined in a recent note that what is known may be sketchy but it's "a bullish outcome v. the range of possibilities, especially the reduction of sectoral tariffs to 15%" — adding that this emerging 15% standard is "better-than-feared." He added that markets also appear to have shifted and instead of a previous hope for a dynamic of "escalate to deescalate" — that is to a say a tense standoff followed by a deal to lower rates — the dynamic now apparently being priced in is one he termed an "escalate-to-escalate-less." Often fuzzy math And the fuzziness of the details is a pattern that has been repeated and appears likely to continue. Earlier this month, Trump announced a deal with Vietnam that included a 20% tariff rate. Later reporting from Bloomberg revealed that Vietnam's leadership was caught off guard by the number and continues to want a lower rate. Likewise in a deal last week with Japan. First, Trump announced a deal including plans for a "new Japanese/USA investment vehicle" even as questions cropped up immediately about what that would entail, with the US and Japanese side offering vastly different accounts. It happened again with a Europe deal announced this weekend that saw Trump suggest the new 15% rate did not apply to sector-specific tariffs at one point calling pharmaceuticals "unrelated to this deal." While 50% tariffs currently levied on steel and aluminum (and on planned duties at the same rate on copper) will remain outside the pact, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors appear very much part of the European deal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the overall 15% rate would apply and, by Monday, the White House confirmed that account with a deal fact sheet that the 15% rate will apply to "autos and auto parts, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors." As Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, put it on Yahoo Finance Monday: "The way markets have been looking at these deals, kind of the fact of the deal is much more important than the details." Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
