Democrats' Support May Be Eroding Among Strongest Backers—Data

Newsweek

5 days ago

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There has been more activity by Democrats in Virginia on social media speaking out against the Trump administration than there has been to support the Democratic Party's candidate in this year's gubernatorial race, according to analysis for Newsweek by Impact Social.
The data set shows that while former Representative Abigail Spanberger is the frontrunner for the state's top seat, the Democratic Party in the Old Dominion state has spent more time in recent months interacting negatively with President Donald Trump's policies, including the use of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Spanberger, 45, most recently served as a congresswoman for the state's 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025 and is a former intelligence officer.
Why It Matters
Viriginia was once a Republican-leaning state, but suburban shifts and growth in the northern region of the state propelled it leftward over the past two decades. Last November, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by less than 6 points against Trump, down from former President Joe Biden's 10-point win in 2020.
However, the prospect of eroding support among reliable Democratic voters in Virginia could have repercussions beyond the state, potentially signaling vulnerability in key battlegrounds for upcoming elections.
Virginia serves as a microcosm for broader national trends, with historical analysis showing that demographic and shifts in attitude among voters often precede changes elsewhere in the country.
The trend that Impact Social found indicates that Spanberger may lack the key support needed to move her campaign in a winning direction.
"This isn't apathy, it's disengagement. Democrat are showing up online, just not for her," Phil Snape of Impact Social said in his analysis.
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Representative Abigail Spanberger, speaks on April 10 in Alexandria, Virginia.
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Representative Abigail Spanberger, speaks on April 10 in Alexandria, Virginia.
Photo byWhat To Know
The data shared shows that conversations surrounding Spanberger online dropped from about 9 percent in February and March to 5 percent in April and May discussions.
This data is collected from humans, not algorithms, Impact Social pointed out in the analysis.
Similar data shows negative sentiment expressed in social media discussions surrounding the former congresswoman remained around -45 and -47.
"Our sentiment insight reveals a serious vulnerability: Spanberger is struggling to energize her own base," Snape explained.
Other data sets compared to conversations surrounding Spanberger show that her Republican opponent, Virginia's Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, saw a decrease in her net sentiment from +7 in February and March to -3 in April and May.
"But here again, it's Democrats driving the negativity, tying Earle-Sears to Governor [Glenn] Youngkin and the broader GOP VA brand," Snape wrote.
Comparatively, negative conversations on social media regarding Trump from Democrats, which were about 360,000 and a had a net of -12, according to Impact Social, show the Democratic Party's interest in the upcoming midterms.
"Key issues include corruption, Gaza, tariffs, immigration, democracy and DOGE. The tone is unmistakably combative and energized, the kind of oppositional vigor we tracked across blue leaning constituencies throughout 2024," the analysis said.
What People Are Saying
Phil Snape of Impact Social said in the analysis: "How Democrats perform and whether they can energize their base will shape national narratives around turnout, enthusiasm and messaging heading into the next cycle. And that's what makes our latest analysis so troubling from a democratic perspective."
He added: "There's more at stake here than just Virginia. As one of the highest-profile off-year contests this race will be read as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms. The Democratic base is active, mobilized and clear-eyed about the states. So why aren't they rallying behind their own candidate?"
What the Polls Shows
A poll from Roanoke College last week showed Spanberger had a double-digit lead over Earle-Sears. The poll took data from the 658 Virginians who were surveyed between May 12 to 19, Newsweek previously reported.
While 43 percent of respondents planned to vote for Spanberger, only 26 percent indicated they planned to vote for Earle-Sears.
The survey also showed that 41 percent of Virginians view Spanberger favorably while 40 percent view her unfavorably. That's compared to a 32 percent viewing Earle-Sears favorably while 48 percent view her unfavorably.
The same poll showed that favorability is at an all-time low for GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin, with 50 of respondents viewing him unfavorably.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.25 percentage points.
A poll commissioned by business advocacy group Virginia FREE and conducted by Pantheon/HarrisX pointed to a closer race.
That poll found Spanberger leading by only four points—52 percent of voters supporting her, and 48 percent backing Earle-Sears. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to 13, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
What Happens Next?
The results in Virginia will be closely watched for signals about broader national trends as the 2026 midterm cycle progresses.
The Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Lean Democratic, meaning it is "considered competitive" but that Democrats do have "an advantage."