Spain's Pedro Sanchez won't limp on for long
Ahead of next week's Nato summit in The Hague, Spain's socialist prime minister has refused to increase his country's defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Pedro Sánchez says that the increase, championed by President Trump and backed by Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, is 'unreasonable'. His refusal has disrupted preparations for the summit at which all the allies were to be asked to commit to the 5 per cent target.
Spain, currently the lowest spender on defence in Nato, recently pledged to increase from 1.3 to 2 per cent of GDP. To increase to 5 per cent would cost a further €80 billion (£68 billion) a year, Sánchez said in a forthright letter sent to Rutte on Thursday. That would require tax increases and cuts to healthcare, education, pensions, green investment and the much-needed housing budget. Instead Sánchez proposed that Spain be exempted from any spending target agreed next week or at least be allowed to adopt a flexible, voluntary approach.
The events of recent days have left Sanchez's credibility in shreds
Sánchez's anti-Trump stance will be well-received by the radical left-wing and separatist parliamentary allies that prop up his fragile minority coalition government. Engulfed in corruption scandals, Sánchez desperately needs their continued support to remain in office. Allegations of kickbacks on public sector contracts and sleaze in his left-wing party emerge almost daily. Even El País, Spain's centre-left newspaper of record whose support Sánchez can usually count on, has suggested that he should resign.
The most damaging allegations centre on long-standing, systemic corruption in Sánchez's inner circle. Sánchez has tried, so far unsuccessfully, to distance himself from what he calls the 'toxic triangle' of two former right-hand men and a close adviser. This week audio recordings in which the men, who all deny wrongdoing, discuss how to divide the kickbacks as well as the different merits and attributes of various prostitutes whose company they are preparing to enjoy have surfaced.
Those recordings have caused revulsion across Spain and the damage has been compounded by a series of unforced errors by Sánchez. In a parliamentary debate on Wednesday he provoked outrage by describing the corruption allegations as merely 'an anecdote'. Previously he attempted to dismiss the importance of another recording which appears to show evidence of vote-rigging by two of the toxic trio during his election as party leader in 2014. Unimpressive too are Sánchez's suggestions that others have done worse things and that his main problem is that he is such a trusting person that it never occurs to him that such things might be going on under his nose.
It is not only Sánchez, though, who is showing signs of strain. Three of his ministers recently claimed that a member of the Guardia Civil police force was plotting to assassinate the prime minister. Even when the accusation, based on fake news, was shown to be false, the ministers refused to withdraw the accusation. A few weeks previously, one of the three, the Deputy Prime Minister, alarmed the public by declaring that the principle of presumption of innocence is a disgrace. When reminded that it's actually a cornerstone of democratic freedom, she tried to pretend that she'd never suggested otherwise.
Meanwhile, Trump's press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, has confirmed that the President wants to see all Nato countries pay their fair share towards defence by meeting the 5 per cent target. She said that she had not yet seen 'Spain's comments' but 'would make sure the President sees them'.
But Sánchez's resistance to the increase in defence spending may not pose a long-term obstacle for Trump. Sánchez came to power promising 'democratic regeneration', so the events of recent days have left his credibility in shreds. With revulsion growing and further revelations expected, it seems increasingly unlikely that his government will survive until August 2027 when the next general election is due.
Whenever that election is held, it's likely to usher in a right-wing coalition government of the Partido Popular and Vox. Vox in particular is strongly supportive of Trump. So, despite Spain's pacifist tradition – a 2024 Gallup survey showed that only 29 per cent of citizens were willing to take up arms in case of war, compared to a global average of 52 per cent – Spain's next government may well be more willing to align with Trump's defence priorities.
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The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
‘The final countdown': Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez fights for his political life
Pedro Sánchez could be forgiven for remembering the autumn of 2018 with a deep and nostalgic sigh. Back then, having been in office for just six months, Spain's socialist prime minister could afford to mock his opponents' frequently hyperbolic attempts to depict him and his administration as an existential threat to the country. 'I know you think I'm a dangerous, extreme leftwinger who's trying to break Spain apart,' he told the senate at the end of October that year. 'I know that everything I do, and everything my government does, is illegal, immoral and even fattening.' Almost seven years on, that barb hasn't aged well. The EU's last centre-left leader is fighting the most crucial battle of his political life. The events of the past seven days – and, indeed the past year – have battered the reputation of Spain's socialist-led minority government and of the man who came to power as a self-declared scourge of corruption. Sánchez, 53, made Spanish political history in June 2018 when he became the first opposition leader to successfully use a motion of no confidence to oust a sitting government and become prime minister. By then, the conservative People's party (PP) had been in power for seven years, was mired in graft scandals and had just been irreparably damaged by a court's ruling that the party had profited from an illegal kickbacks-for-contracts scheme. Its then leader, Mariano Rajoy, had also suffered the ignominy of becoming the first serving Spanish prime minister to give evidence in a criminal trial. Unveiling his no-confidence motion, Sánchez complained that the PP had 'seriously damaged the health of our democracy' and plunged the country's politics into what he termed a 'corruption thriller'. It is another phrase that hasn't aged well. Today it is his government and his circle that sit at the centre of a web of alleged plots that would seem too numerous, too unlikely and too convoluted for an airport novel. The question now is whether the great survivor of Spanish politics will make it to the next general election, scheduled for 2027. To mangle Hemingway's line on going bankrupt, how does a government slide into ethical and electoral insolvency? 'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.' Last week, Sánchez's right-hand man, Santos Cerdán, the organisational secretary of the prime minister's Spanish Socialist Workers' party (PSOE), resigned after a supreme court judge found 'firm evidence' of his possible involvement in taking kickbacks on public construction contracts. His case is tied to those of two other men, the former transport minister José Luis Ábalos – who was Cerdán's predecessor as the PSOE's organisational secretary – and Ábalos's former aide Koldo García. Ábalos was sacked from Sánchez's cabinet in 2021 and suspended by the PSOE in February last year after refusing to resign when García was accused of taking bribes to facilitate mask contracts during the Covid crisis. Both men have denied any wrongdoing. Over the past few days, leaked evidence handed to the Guardia Civil's anti-corruption unit has purported to show Cerdán discussing kickbacks with Ábalos and García, and Cerdán instructing García to interfere with the 2014 party vote that saw Sánchez elected PSOE leader. Audio of a crude discussion between Ábalos and García in which they appear to discuss the various attributes of different sex workers has also surfaced. It's little wonder then that Sánchez proclaimed on Thursday of last week that he should never have trusted Cerdán, who insists he is innocent. The prime minister's accompanying mea culpa – 'I have many shortcomings … but I have always believed in working for clean politics and fair play in politics' – came hours after the PSOE had denied that Cerdán had ever been involved in any conversations about taking bribes. Those cases are not the only graft allegations facing those around the prime minister. Both Sánchez's wife, Begoña Gómez, and his brother, David Sánchez, are also under investigation. Gómez is being investigated for alleged corruption and influence-peddling after a complaint by the pressure group Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), a self-styled trade union with far-right links that has a long history of using the courts to pursue political targets. Manos Limpias has accused Gómez of using her influence as the wife of the prime minister to secure sponsors for a university master's degree course that she ran. Sánchez has complained of being the victim of 'lawfare' and has described the case against his wife as baseless and 'an ugly fit-up driven by the far-right groups behind the complaint'. The emergence of the allegations last year led him to take a five-day break from his public duties while he considered whether to carry on as prime minister. David Sánchez, meanwhile, is facing trial over allegations of influence-peddling and other offences in a case that also began with accusations from Manos Limpias and other groups. He denies the charges. It doesn't end there. A former PSOE member has been accused of trying to wage a smear campaign against the Guardia Civil anti-corruption unit, which is also investigating Gómez and David Sánchez. And Spain's top prosecutor could face trial for allegedly leaking confidential information from a tax fraud case involving the partner of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the populist PP leader of the Madrid region who is also one of Pedro Sánchez's loudest and brashest critics. No degree in political science is needed to see just how bad things are for the PSOE. Sánchez's big worry now is that there could be still more damaging revelations to come about the activities of the 'toxic triangle' of Cerdán, Ábalos and García. On Friday morning, Guardia Civil officers visited the PSOE's Madrid HQ and the transport ministry to clone Cerdán and Ábalos's email accounts. Although the PP, now led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, doesn't yet have the votes it needs to bring a no-confidence vote against the government, the PSOE's parliamentary allies – who include small Basque and Catalan nationalist parties – could decide that the socialist brand is too radioactive for them to be associated with. In the meantime, Sánchez, a politician known for confounding expectations and opponents – and a man who famously called his 2019 memoir Manual de Resistencia (Resistance Manual) – is insisting that the PSOE is not institutionally rotten. 'I will not allow you to turn an anecdote into a category,' he told his adversaries during a loud and rancorous session in congress on Wednesday. 'The left is not corrupt.' The PP, which believes it may finally have Sánchez cornered, is not without its own issues. Ayuso – whose eccentric pronouncements tend to eclipse Feijóo's more muted leadership style – is still under pressure over her boyfriend's judicial issues with the tax authorities, and over her government's Covid protocols after more than 7,200 people died in the region's care homes during the early stages of the Covid pandemic. The party is also facing continuing scrutiny over its response to last year's deadly floods in Valencia, another of the regions it governs. Then there is its own well-documented history of corruption, not to mention the inconvenient fact that the PP is all but certain to have to rely on a deal with the far-right Vox party to govern. But there is a growing sense that what was supposed to be one of Europe's few remaining beacons of social democracy is dimming, even as the far right is gaining strength around the continent and beyond. If successive conservative and socialist governments in Spain are brought down by corruption scandals, the big winners are likely to be those, such as Vox, who rage against what they say is an old and rotten two-party system. Recent events over the border in Portugal are also sobering. In last month's snap election, the Portuguese socialist party – which was forced from government by a corruption scandal in 2023 – finished third behind the far-right Chega party. While a similar outcome in Spain is deeply improbable, Vox's appeal – especially to young men – is increasing. As the accusations mount, the achievements of the Sánchez administration risk disappearing under the rapidly accumulating weight of mud. As well as delivering an enviably strong economy and calming the tensions in Catalonia after the failed 2017 push for independence, the government has, in conjunction with its successive, more leftwing partners, introduced menstrual leave, a minimum basic income scheme, a euthanasia law and updated abortion legislation. Perhaps most eye-catchingly of all, Sánchez has also bucked the continent-wide political trend by defending immigration and its benefits. 'Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed-off, poor country,' he told parliament in October. 'It's as simple as that.' The coming weeks will determine the prime minister's future, but some believe the days of the Sánchez government are numbered. 'As I see it, the legislature is already over,' said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid's Carlos III University. While he acknowledged his view might sound harsh, he said the recent revelations were damaging precisely because they struck at the very heart of the PSOE's progressive and administrative credibility. Simón said the allegations of irregularities in the PSOE primaries, the apparent use of sex workers – 'which breaks that whole image of a feminist government that believes in equality' – the perceived hypocrisy of a party that professed a zero tolerance approach to corruption, and Sánchez's repeated cries of lawfare and conspiracy, now added up to a damning whole. 'With those four corners of the government's narrative demolished, the situation is now terminal,' he said. 'We don't know how the legislature will end or when it will end, but we're now in the final countdown … No one knows exactly what else could come out.'
BreakingNews.ie
an hour ago
- BreakingNews.ie
Israel-Iran war stretches into a second week without diplomatic breakthrough
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Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
Four-star general reveals Iran's Ayatollah isn't cutting peace deal as Trump's countdown begins
Iran isn't cutting a U.S.-brokered peace deal with Israel because its leaders are confident they can rebuild its nuclear program even if it's wiped out, a retired general says. General Jack Keane, the former Vice Chief of Staff to the U.S. Army, told Fox News that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes the country will be able to restart its nuclear bomb with relative ease after the ongoing conflict with Israel ends. The U.S. has not joined the conflict so far. President Trump says he'll decide whether to do so in the next two weeks, after urging Iran to halt its nuclear bomb building. 'The nuclear enterprise is vast, and it is resilient,' Keane told Fox News. '(There are) multiple sites, centrifuges, so you can spin up enriched uranium. They did that to survive.' Keane said the Ayatollah has 'never made a deal' because 'he has built an enterprise to survive an attack' that he believes is strong enough to withstand airstrikes even if President Trump decides to join the conflict. 'He believes they can absorb an attack, survive it, recover from it, and then rebuild. That is where this guy is,' he said. 'I don't see him, in the near term, making a deal here whatsoever.' Keane, a four-star general, was likely referring to Iran's nuclear bomb factory, which is called Fordow and which sits deep under a mountain. The United States' most powerful 'bunker buster' bomb has been touted as a possible match for the Fordow facility, if President Trump decides to join the conflict at the end of a two week deadline he's just announced. Other experts believe a tactical nuclear weapon would be needed. Using a nuclear bomb in an act of war is a huge taboo unbroken since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. "I don't see him in the near term making a deal": @gen_jackkeane on the Ayatollah's approach — FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) June 20, 2025 The general said for Trump to succeed, he needs to 'take the whole enterprise down' and wipe out the nation's top leadership and military capabilities, after Israel significantly weakened Iran in recent weeks. 'Look, Israel have destroyed all 70 of their air defense batteries, all of them. Air force, gone. The 12 nuclear sites, damages or destroyed. Then, leadership (is) decapitated, military and nuclear scientists. They can replace nuclear scientists, but in the near term, major problem.' Iran has long vowed to obliterate Israel at the first chance it gets, with Israeli intelligence beginning their bombing campaign earlier this month over fears leaders in Tehran were just months off completing a nuclear weapon. World leaders and many military strategists have urged Trump to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis, fearing that any direct US intervention could spiral into all-out war. Trump has warned that if Iran don't agree to stop their nuclear weapons program within two weeks, he will commit US forces to join Israel in the conflict. Iran's allies include Russia and China, meaning the stakes for the current conflict could not be higher. Trump has instated a two-week deadline to make a decision, primarily whether to use a 30,000lb 'bunker buster' bomb to penetrate Iran's underground enrichment plant in Fordow. But Keane, who was heavily involved in the Iraq War, said he 'absolutely' believes Trump should use the bunker buster, saying 'the alternative is unacceptable.' He admitted that using the weapon could face challenges as we've never actually done' it before, but insisted 'that doesn't mean you don't do it.' Keane's urging of Trump to use the 'bunker buster' bomb comes as experts say the weapon is one of the only tools in the US military arsenal that could take out the Fordow enrichment site. The 30,000lb bomb is the largest non-nuclear bomb at America's disposal, and can smash through several hundred feet of earth, with the Fordow site said to be located up to 300ft underground. The GBU-57A/B 'bunker buster' bomb, as it is known, is arguably the top military reason that Israel wants the United States to join its air campaign against arch-foe Iran. The US designed and built the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) and remains the only nation to possess the bomb, as well as being the only country with warplanes capable of dropping its formidable payload. Crucially, it is also the only weapon widely believed to be capable of smashing through Iran's deeply buried nuclear facility at Fordow.
