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Business Standard
11 minutes ago
- Business Standard
India, Asean drift apart as Trump tariffs strain trade ties and trust
It's still far from clear what President Donald Trump's tariffs will eventually look like. But the pressures they will put on stable trading relationships — even those that don't directly involve the US — are already visible. Ties between India and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations are already fraying: They're being pushed into different camps, and the free-trade agreement they signed in 2010 could become an unexpected victim of the turmoil. Trump might be the immediate cause of this rift, but, as always, China's massive manufacturing overcapacity is at the heart of the problem. Even if no country knows what rates they or others will face, everyone can be reasonably certain that the mainland's tariffs will be the highest of all. Unfortunately, this also means that there's a big incentive to help Beijing game the system enough that we all trust each other less. But, for some, there's also the tempting possibility that China's overcapacity can be turned from an enemy into an ally. Any country that remains integrated both with China and those that are putting up tariff walls could, if it wanted, become a location for the trans-shipment of goods. Instead of paying the higher China levies, importers would pay lower ones imposed on the third country — and share a bit of the take with local partners. Tariff arbitrage could become as profitable in the future as interest rate arbitrage is today. The more countries that impose anti-dumping duties on China, the more money the successful trans-shipper would make. The US, for one, is already very concerned that parts of Asean might take this route — which is why Trump's trade deal with Vietnam included a clause that any goods suspected of being trans-shipped would pay double tariffs. For countries like India, it's an even greater fear. India's commerce minister caused a bit of a stir recently when he described Asean as 'China's B-team.' That was certainly impolitic. But, perhaps, not entirely unjustified. New Delhi has been trying to update its free trade agreement with Asean for a while. Its particular focus has been to tighten rules-of-origin requirements — the way in which you ensure that a free trade agreement only benefits local producers in both countries, not those shipping goods that originate elsewhere. Indian officials feel that Asean has been going slow on these discussions. Meanwhile, news broke in May that the bloc had expanded the scope of its parallel FTA with China. They achieved that in double-quick time — negotiations only started in November 2022 — which raised a few eyebrows in New Delhi. Some in India, clearly including its commerce minister, now seem to think that tariff-free trade with Southeast Asia is the same as opening your market to China. That isn't true — or, at any rate, not yet. But the fact is that member states simply aren't doing enough to reassure their other trading partners, including India. It would be a nightmare for most countries, including India, if closed-off blocs were to replace today's open trading system. Yet Trump's actions, when combined with China's overcapacity, are taking us there. Any country that wants to trade with both sides of the divide — which, clearly, many in Southeast Asia would prefer — will also need to be able to be very transparent about the goods it is exporting, and how much value has been added domestically. In other words, it's Asean's move: They will have to step up and give most of their trading partners, not just India and the US, a clearer view into their supply chains. The US is clearly worried that some countries will evade its tariffs. Those concerns will be shared, especially by India. New Delhi seems to believe that, if world trade blocs form, then Asean has already chosen its side — and it won't be the one India picks. Trade's impossible without trust, and these two partners will have to work to rebuild it.
NDTV
20 minutes ago
- NDTV
"Pretty Boring Stuff": Donald Trump On Jeffrey Epstein Case
President Donald Trump said Tuesday the US Justice Department should release all "credible" information from its probe into notorious sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein as he sought to douse a firestorm of criticism from his supporters over his handling of the case. Trump is facing the most serious split of his political career from his famously loyal right-wing base over suspicions that his administration is covering up lurid details of Epstein's crimes to protect rich and powerful figures they say are implicated. "The attorney general has handled that very well," the Republican leader said of Pam Bondi, who leads the Justice Department, when he was asked about the case at the White House. Trump repeated his claim that the Epstein files were "made up" by his Democratic predecessors in the White House -- even though he said multiple times during the election campaign that he would "probably" release them. "She's handled it very well, and it's going to be up to her," Trump said. "Whatever she thinks is credible, she should release." Trump's latest comments mark a softening of his stance -- he had voiced frustration in the Oval Office and online about his supporters' fixation on Epstein and pleaded with them to move on. "I don't understand why the Jeffrey Epstein case would be of interest to anybody," Trump told reporters Tuesday night, adding: "It's pretty boring stuff." The president's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement has long held as an article of faith that "Deep State" elites are protecting Epstein's most powerful associates in the Democratic Party and Hollywood. Trump has faced growing outrage since his administration effectively shut down Epstein-related conspiracy theories, which have become MAGA obsessions. The Justice Department and FBI said in a memo made public earlier this month there is no evidence that the disgraced financier kept a "client list" or was blackmailing powerful figures. They also dismissed the claim that Epstein was murdered in jail, confirming his death by suicide, and said they would not be releasing any more information on the probe. - 'Let the people decide' - It marked the first time Trump's officials had publicly refuted the stories -- pushed for years by numerous right-wing figures, notably including the FBI's top two officials, before Trump hired them. Beyond angering supporters, the issue has opened a schism within his administration, sparking a fiery blow-up between Bondi and Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, who is said to be considering resigning. Trump's attempts to take the sting out of the controversy have largely failed, with far right influencers continuing to criticize him online. Even his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, a Fox News host, has called for "more transparency" from the administration. Trump's most powerful ally in the US Congress, House Speaker Mike Johnson, pushed Tuesday for the administration to release more information about the case, and his stance has been echoed by multiple Republicans. "We should put everything out there and let the people decide," he told MAGA influencer Benny Johnson's internet show, calling on Bondi to "come forward and explain" apparent discrepancies in her statements about the case. Bondi told Fox News in February a list of Epstein clients was on her desk for review, before backtracking and saying that no such list existed. Epstein died by suicide in a New York prison in 2019 after being charged with sex trafficking. Trump -- who has denied visiting the US Virgin Islands home where prosecutors say Epstein sex trafficked underage girls -- said ahead of his election he would have "no problem" releasing files related to the case. Asked whether Bondi had told him if his name appeared in a file related to Epstein, Trump said "no," adding that Bondi has "given us just a very quick briefing."
NDTV
21 minutes ago
- NDTV
Explained: The Epstein Files, Conspiracy Theories And What's Next
A perceived lack of transparency over the US investigations into notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has carved a rare chasm between President Donald Trump and his typically loyal Republican base. As Trump struggles to quell his supporters' obsessions with the case - one long surrounded by conspiracy theories - AFP outlines its history and why it has caused so much outrage. Origins of the Epstein case Jeffrey Epstein, a wealthy American financier, was first charged with sex offenses in 2006 after the parents of a 14-year-old girl told police that he had molested their daughter at his Florida home. He avoided federal charges - which could have seen him face life in prison - due to a controversial plea deal with prosecutors that saw him jailed for just under 13 months. In July 2019, he was arrested again in New York and charged with trafficking dozens of teenage girls and engaging in sex acts with them in exchange for money. Prosecutors said he worked with employees and associates to ensure a "steady supply of minor victims to abuse." Epstein pleaded not guilty to the charges against him. On August 10, 2019, while in custody awaiting trial, authorities said he was found dead in his prison cell after hanging himself. A separate case against Epstein's girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who was jailed in 2022 for helping him abuse girls, detailed Epstein's connections with high-profile figures like Britain's Prince Andrew and former US president Bill Clinton. Both have denied any wrongdoing. Why are there conspiracy theories? Some people believe that authorities are concealing details about the Epstein case to protect rich and powerful elites who are associated with him, including Trump. Those ideas have gripped Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement - but demands for more transparency have crossed the political aisle. One key theory centers on a rumored client list of individuals who committed sex offenses alongside Epstein. The Trump administration has insisted that no such list exists. Skeptics also allege suspicious circumstances in Epstein's death such as the security cameras around his cell apparently malfunctioning on the night he died, alongside other irregularities. Trump and the Epstein case Trump, who as a New York property magnate rubbed shoulders with Epstein, said when re-running for president that he would "probably" release files related to the case. But since taking office, many of Trump's supporters have been disappointed by what they see as a failure to deliver. The 79-year-old himself was dragged into the conspiracy theories after his former advisor Elon Musk claimed in June - in a now-deleted X post - that Trump was "in the Epstein files." The Trump administration's efforts to appease demands for a full disclosure of the so-called Epstein files have largely fallen short. A bundle released in February that promised to shed light on the Epstein case contained little new information. Meanwhile, an almost 11-hour video published this month to dispel theories that Epstein was murdered fell flat. The camera angle showed a section of the New York prison on the night Epstein died, but appeared to be missing a minute of footage, fueling more speculation online. And a memo from the Justice Department and FBI last week saying the Epstein files did not contain evidence that would justify further investigation was met by calls for the heads of each agency to resign. What comes next? Trump has been towing a delicate line - saying he supports the release of any "credible" files related to Epstein while dismissing the case as "pretty boring stuff." But even the normally authoritative president seems unable to arrest the disruption, as critics and even key allies call for more transparency. Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House, has not followed Trump's line on the issue and has instead urged the Justice Department to make public any documents linked to Epstein. Meanwhile, Democrats have seized on the rift between Trump and his party by demanding his administration publish the full evidence held by prosecutors in their case against Epstein.
