Gulf Analysts Warn of Escalation, Urge Mediation Efforts

Asharq Al-Awsat

6 hours ago

Gulf analysts have warned that escalating tensions between Israel and Iran pose serious security and economic threats that could destabilize the region, urging the activation of mediation channels and stepped-up diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider confrontation.
Despite the firm and longstanding position of the Gulf states condemning all acts of aggression regardless of their source, analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that they remain vulnerable to potential disruptions in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as direct threats, including missile strikes or attacks by Iran-backed groups.
The conflict between Iran and Israel has sharply escalated, with heavy rocket fire and airstrikes continuing after Israel launched a sweeping aerial assault that killed senior military commanders and scientists and targeted nuclear sites in a bid to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Analysts have warned that a potential strike on Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor could trigger a catastrophic radiation leak into Gulf waters, posing a direct threat to desalination plants that Gulf countries rely on for their primary water supply.
The Gulf Cooperation Council said no abnormal radiation levels had been detected in any member states so far, adding that environmental and radiological indicators remain within safe and technically permissible limits.
Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said the region's geographic proximity and strategic interdependence with Iran place Gulf states in a particularly vulnerable position.
'The key priority is to prevent Gulf countries from being drawn into the ongoing military confrontation, which could expose their sovereignty, territories and societies to serious threats that would undermine their security and stability,' he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
'Security threats top the list of potential risks, with significant impacts on Gulf economies,' added Sager.
'There is also the risk of an increase in irregular migration and displacement from Iran if the conflict continues. Finally, the potential for political and security chaos looms if the conflict evolves into instability within the Iranian regime,' he explained.
Dr. Hesham Alghannam, an expert at the Malcolm Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, believes Gulf states are at risk of being drawn into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran due to their geographic proximity and the presence of US military bases that Iran may target if tensions rise.
Alghannam told Asharq Al-Awsat that the confrontation could also lead to disruptions in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting Gulf economies, as well as direct missile strikes or attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups.
Alghannam, who also heads the National Security Program at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences, warned that a strike on the Bushehr nuclear reactor—if it were to happen—could result in a catastrophic radiation leak that contaminates Gulf waters.
'This would threaten the desalination systems Gulf countries depend on and further inflame an already volatile political landscape,' he said.
Strategic analyst Dr. Dhafer Al-Ajmi said the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel poses a direct threat to Gulf security, warning that Iran could target energy facilities and critical infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states.
'Such escalation would likely drive up oil prices and disrupt global energy supplies, negatively impacting both regional and global economies,' he said.
'It could also embolden Iran-backed groups to exploit the turmoil and carry out attacks within Gulf states, threatening internal stability,' added Al-Ajmi.
On his part, Sager stressed that the Gulf stance is rooted in firm principles that reject aggression from any side.
'The most important principle adopted by Gulf states regarding the Iranian-Israeli-American conflict is neutrality and non-involvement,' he said. 'Gulf countries have sought to maintain balanced relations with all parties to the conflict, while adhering to international law and legitimacy'.
Sager noted that Gulf states have consistently opposed Iran's violations of international norms and have repeatedly called on Tehran to respect the sovereignty of other nations, abandon its expansionist policies and regional ambitions, and fully comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the prohibition on developing or acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
Moreover, Sager said that Gulf states also reject Israel's efforts to impose dominance in the region and its aggressive use of illegitimate force, which he said violate international law and regional stability.
'The Gulf position on US policy has also become clear,' he said, 'with opposition to any American actions or positions that contravene international law and legitimacy'.
Meanwhile, Dr. Dhafer Al-Ajmi said Gulf countries should adhere to a policy of 'constructive neutrality,' activate mediation and diplomatic channels, and strengthen international partnerships to secure support in the event of escalation.
He also called for boosting defense and security readiness, intensifying coordination with global allies to safeguard critical infrastructure, and supporting regional de-escalation efforts through political solutions that can prevent the conflict from widening.