Kentucky Derby: Rodriguez, Grande Scratch; What Baeza Has To Do To Win

Forbes

02-05-2025

Finally, A Stall In The Derby Gate: Baeza lopes in hand on May 2, one day prior to the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. (Photo by)
Getty Images
Two talented Kentucky Derby entries, Rodriguez and Grande have been scratched from the race, leaving Grande's trainer Todd Pletcher without a runner in the race for the first time in 21 years and halving Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's entries in the race, leaving him with the improving Citizen Bull in tomorrow's running. Baffert hadn't liked the look of Rodriguez' right forefoot at mid-week, and his scratch of Rodriguez allowed the young, hot gunslinger Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, into the gate.
All that commotion caused quite a different look in the 151st Kentucky Derby's gate composition. Rodriguez had occupied the 4th stall from the rail, and Grande had drawn square into the middle of the field, in the 10-hole. As of today, May 2, that means that all horses in their original post-positions of 5-9 would be moved toward the rail by one stall (but will keep their saddle cloth numbers), and all horses in their original post positions of 11-20 will move toward the rail by two stalls, also keeping their original saddle cloths. For his part, latecomer Baeza will receive the saddle cloth number 21, but he will move in as well, to break from post position 19.
There is no further alternate (below Baeza in the point standings) that qualified according to the Churchill stewards, thus the 2025 Derby will have nineteen runners. Nota bene: Only the horses in post positions 1-3 will bear saddle cloths that match their post positions. Every other horse will have been moved in by one or two stalls, according to their position. To be clear: the saddle cloth numbers 4 (Rodriguez) and 10 (Grande) will be retired. Accordingly, we list the post positions in parenthesis after the saddle cloth numbers.
Here is the look of the Derby's new gate:
1.(1.) Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 20-1
2.(2.) Neoequos, Saffie Joseph Jr., Flavien Prat, 30-1
3. (3.)Final Gambit, Brad Cox, Luan Machado, 30-1
4. SCRATCH Rodriguez, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 12-1 SCRATCH
5. (4.)American Promise, D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, 30-1
6. (5.)Admire Daytona, Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire, 30-1
7. (6.)Luxor Café, Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira, 15-1
8. (7.)Journalism, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 3-1
9. (8.)Burnham Square, Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., 12-1
10. SCRATCH Grande, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 20-1 SCRATCH
11. (9.) Flying Mohawk, Whit Beckman, Joe Ramos, 30-1
12. (10.) East Avenue, Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco, 20-1
13. (11.) Publisher, Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1
14. (12.) Tiztastic, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20-1
15. (13.) Render Judgment, Kenny McPeek, Julien Leparoux, 30-1
16. (14.) Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, 30-1
17. (15.) Sandman, Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 6-1
18. (16.) Sovereignty, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 5-1
19. (17.) Chunk of Gold, Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, 30-1
20. (18.) Owen Almighty, Brian Lynch, Javier Castellano, 30-1
21. (19.) Baeza, John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, 12-1
(Source: Churchill Downs, 5/2/2025)
It's a mark of Baeza's standout athletic qualities that three of the Daily Racing Form's nationally-renowned veterans — correspondent Brad Free, speed-figure god Andrew Beyer and former DRF publisher and author Steven Crist — bluntly criticized Baeza's being shut out of the Derby via a curious points-reduction rule change and that, five days before he was finally invited to the Churchill gate, they insisted on including him in their top-four picks for the Derby. Said another way, Baeza was not yet in the race, but he was just that good.
Free picked him to win outright. Crist, prophetically, said that he fully expected Baeza's double-digit odds to come down but that he would be happy to bet him at 'anything in double digits.' All three gentlemen left their rambunctiously thoughtful, amusing DRF livestream hoping that Baeza would gain a stall in the gate.
And exactly that has transpired, sadly, at a cost to Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez, who turned up with a bruised foot, but whose connections immediately got busy allowing their colt to heal up and point to the Preakness. The 151st Derby will definitely miss Rodriguez not being in the mix while leaving quite a few of the weaker contenders such as , although Baeza will bring a similar sort of weight and sharpness that Rodriguez' departure subtracts. Bottom line, it would have been a better Derby with Rodriguez in it and but before we get into the dynamics of what Baeza has before him tomorrow at post time, here, a refresher on the field minus Rodriguez but with Baeza perched on its very outside.
As we know, Baeza is both swift and swiftly improving, so that it can be that the former DRF publisher and Jedi master-handicapper Crist will be wrestling with whether to jump on him with quite so much alacrity, or cash, if the track starts loving Baeza, today and tomorrow, so much that the colt ratchets down into single-digit odds.