UK economy shrinks by the most in nearly two years, ONS says
Gross domestic output shrank by a worse-than-expected 0.3% in April from March - the biggest monthly drop since October 2023 and a much bigger drop than the 0.1% fall forecast in a Reuters poll.
"After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs," Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said.
A fall in real estate and legal activity in April after the end of a temporary tax break on house purchases contributed 0.2 percentage points of the 0.3 percentage point fall in output in April, the ONS said. Car makers also reported lower output and exports to both the United States and the European Union.
Britain's economy expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, outstripping growth in other countries in the Group of Seven advanced economies and prompting the Bank of England to revise up its full-year growth forecast to 1% last month.
However, the BoE revised down its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.25% and said it expected the tariffs to knock 0.3% off British output in three years' time.
BoE policymakers who are expected to hold interest rates next week are faced with competing forces of stubborn inflation and a relatively sluggish economy.
A closely-watched business survey earlier this month suggested much of the economy returned to tepid growth.
Business surveys of British firms have generally been downbeat and shown firms slowed their hiring and investment plans due to big increases in labour costs announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves last October.
Data published this week showed a fall in consumer spending in May.
The ONS said GDP in April was 0.9% higher than a year earlier, growing less than the 1.1% expected in the Reuters poll.
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