Mike Crapo's megabill Mission: Impossible

Politico

3 days ago

Presented by
IN TODAY'S EDITION:— What we expect on tax policy this week— Johnson's rescissions problem— The impact of Graham's Russia sanctions
It's shaping up to be an enormously consequential week for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda, and there's one lawmaker at the center of it all: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo.
This morning we're going to zoom in on the Idaho Republican and his mammoth to-do list, which includes resolving make-or-break fights over tax policy, Medicaid cuts and clean-energy credits. (Benjamin is out with an even deeper dive that our POLITICO Pro readers got first on Sunday.)
The soft-spoken Crapo has been stealthily working to coordinate changes to the 'big, beautiful' bill. It's looking like he won't release his committee's piece of the package until next week, with several outstanding policy issues unresolved. Senate Finance is expected to begin going through bill text with members and staff beginning today, and Crapo is expected to brief the broader Senate Republican conference mid-week.
'We're working as aggressively as we can to move as fast as we can,' Crapo says.
Crapo's leaning on a cadre of trusted advisers. Finance staff director Gregg Richard, chief tax counsel Courtney Connell and deputy chief tax counsel Randy Herndon are among his critical staff on the bill.
Crapo is known for his spare words — trust us, we've tried to get more out of him — but also for his history of landing deals. One of his biggest wins was the 2018 law that eased the Dodd-Frank banking law — an effort that required bringing along Democrats to help serve up a Trump administration victory.
He also flexed as a deal-killer last year, blocking a tax revamp negotiated by House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith and then-Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden.
Last year's clash soured the relationship between Crapo and Smith, yet the two have found a way to work together to deliver Trump's latest round of tax cuts.
'We've been communicating very closely so we each know what the other is thinking,' Crapo says.
Now Crapo faces his biggest test yet as he tries to resolve Senate clashes over razor's edge deals that Smith and other top House Republicans struck to pass their version of the bill. Some of those conflicts are within Senate Finance itself, with Sen. Thom Tillis pushing for changes to 'no tax on tips' and Sen. James Lankford wanting to scale back planned endowment taxes on private universities.
Crapo's personal priority? He is the leading advocate for using a legislative accounting method known as current policy baseline that would treat the extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts as costing nothing. This is a big flash point between him and fiscal hardliners.
If he succeeds in the Senate, Crapo's compromise will have to survive the House. Some top House Republicans are urging him to go easy on them.
'Mike Crapo is a brilliant senator and he's instrumental on the tax stuff and everything else. You got to respect his opinion,' Majority Whip Tom Emmer tells Mia. 'But at the end of the day, I hope they leave it right where it's at.'
Look for other Senate committees to release their megabill text this week: HELP and Energy on Tuesday; Agriculture on Wednesday; and Homeland Security and Judiciary on Thursday, according to our latest intel. Agriculture text though may slide to later this week or possibly into next week as several governors are now raising concerns about plans for federal food aid.
GOOD MONDAY MORNING. Follow our live coverage at the Inside Congress blog at politico.com/congress and email your Inside Congress scribes at [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail] and [e-mail].
THE SKED
The House is in session. Members are set to vote on resolutions denouncing the Boulder, Colo. terrorist attack and renaming the House Press Gallery the 'Frederick Douglass Press Gallery' at 6:30 p.m.
— Rules will have a hearing on the HALT Fentanyl Act and a bill that would prohibit non-citizens from voting in Washington at 4 p.m.
— Appropriations will hold a subcommittee markup for the fiscal 2026 DHS funding bill at 6 p.m. Bill text released Sunday night would provide DHS with $66.4 billion but doesn't have big increases for the department's immigration agencies as Republicans pursue billions for border security in the budget reconciliation bill.
— House Republican and Democratic leadership will hold private meetings shortly before evening votes.
The Senate is in session and voting on Brett Shumate's nomination to be an assistant attorney general and to end debate on David Fotouhi's nomination to be deputy administrator of the EPA at 5:30 p.m.
— Senate Republican and Democratic leadership will hold private meetings shortly before evening votes.
The rest of the week: The House will take up the rescissions package, HALT Fentanyl Act and immigration legislation targeting D.C. The Senate will work through Trump's nominations, including Stephen Vaden to be deputy secretary of Agriculture and Andrew Hughes to be deputy secretary of HUD.
THE LEADERSHIP SUITE
Johnson's rescissions problem
House GOP leaders are planning a vote Thursday on a rescissions bill that would claw back $9.4 billion in funds Congress has approved for foreign aid and public broadcasting. But there's a new problem for Speaker Mike Johnson — at least 10 moderate Republicans have privately said they currently oppose the legislation, four people with direct knowledge tell Meredith Lee Hill. The holdouts have raised concerns about the impact of the cuts and questioned whether it's appropriate to let the White House slash funding that lawmakers approved. Johnson's leadership circle thinks they can flip the no votes and muscle the package through the floor this week. The first stop is the Rules Committee Tuesday.
LA immigration clashes hit the Hill's agenda
Escalating confrontations between law enforcement and protesters in Los Angeles over federal immigration policy are quickly being felt on Capitol Hill after Trump mobilized the National Guard to respond.
Sen. Lindsey Graham and Stephen Miller, the deputy White House chief of staff, are among the GOP lawmakers and Trump administration officials using the clashes to call for passing the megabill to bolster immigration enforcement. Congressional Hispanic Caucus members talked through the situation in an emergency meeting late Sunday, our Nicholas Wu reports. And look for the issue to come up at tonight's House Appropriations subcommittee on DHS funding, which includes immigration enforcement.
Johnson doubts Musk's megabill sway
Johnson told ABC's 'This Week' on Sunday that he has texted with Elon Musk but not spoken with him since last Monday. But the speaker didn't appear worried about Musk's meltdown over the 'big, beautiful' bill. He said Republicans haven't received many constituent calls urging votes against the bill over Musk's complaints.
Trump is warning Musk to back off of Congress, telling NBC News that he would face 'serious consequences' if he funds Democrats to run against Republicans who support the megabill. Sen. Cory Booker told NBC that he won't accept campaign contributions from Musk, but that the billionaire should 'get involved … in a more substantive way' against the budget reconciliation bill.
ICYMI: House Republicans are making clear that they're sticking with Trump over Musk, Meredith reports with Hailey Fuchs and Ben Jacobs.
'Frankly, it's united Republicans even more to go and defend the great things that are in this bill — and once it's passed and signed into law by August, September, you're going to see this economy turning around like nothing we've ever seen,' House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in an interview Friday.
Stefanik returns to Intel
Rep. Elise Stefanik, the chair of House Republican Leadership, is back on House Intelligence, where she served since 2017 before losing the assignment when she was tapped to be UN ambassador. To make the move work, the House is adding Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen to the panel rather than removing another Republican.
POLICY RUNDOWN
BANKING'S BYRD TEST — Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott is out with his panel's contribution to the GOP's megabill, amid concerns from his own Republican members that several provisions won't be allowed under Senate budget reconciliation rules, our Katherine Hapgood reports. A plan to zero out CFPB funding could run into problems with the so-called Byrd, which restricts proposals that have a negligible budget impact.
ANOTHER CRAPO PROBLEM — Thirteen House Republicans led by Rep. Jen Kiggans are urging Senate leaders to rescue clean energy tax credits that the House-passed version of the GOP megabill would phase down, Kelsey Brugger reports. Most of the lawmakers supported the bill on the House floor.
'We believe the Senate now has a critical opportunity to restore common sense and deliver a truly pro-energy growth final bill that protects taxpayers while also unleashing the potential of U.S. energy producers, manufacturers, and workers,' they wrote to Crapo and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
THE IMPACT OF GRAHAM'S RUSSIA SANCTIONS — Graham's bipartisan bill to impose 'crushing' sanctions on Russia would cut the U.S. off from some of the world's largest economies with 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy our Amy Mackinnon reports. Graham is proposing new carve-outs for countries that provide aid to Ukraine — a big help to the European Union — but some experts remain skeptical.
The Trump administration is trying to get Graham to weaken the legislation, The Wall Street Journal reports.
In the House, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is holding off pursuing a discharge petition to force action on similar legislation, preferring to wait for the Senate to pass the bill, three people with direct knowledge of the plans told Meredith.
Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E:
CAMPAIGN STOP
MEDICAID ADS FLOOD SWING DISTRICTS — TV spots mentioning Medicaid have already run in more Republican-held districts this year than they did all of last cycle as Democrats look to use GOP's proposed cuts to the program as a campaign cudgel, according to a new analysis from our Jessica Piper, Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein.
STOP US IF YOU'VE HEARD THIS ONE — Texas Republicans' messy Senate primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton is giving Democrats hope of finally flipping the Lone Star State, Nicholas and Liz Crampton report. Their logic: Paxton is leading Cornyn in polls, including, as Ben reports, among those who identify themselves as part of the 'Trump movement.' Democrats believe a Paxton general-election candidacy could divide Republicans and potentially even sway some to support a Democrat.
But first Democrats need a viable candidate. Former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O'Rourke have signaled interest in another bid, but some Democrats want the party to look elsewhere. Rep. Joaquin Castro is looking at the race, while Rep. Marc Veasey ruled out a run.
TUNNEL TALK
BABBITT SETTLEMENT — The Trump administration will pay a nearly $5 million settlement in the lawsuit over the wrongful death of Ashli Babbitt, who was killed by a U.S. Capitol Police officer after storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, our Ali Bianco reports. Lawyers reached an agreement last month for a settlement, but no final deal was publicly disclosed until Friday.
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS MOVES — Acting Librarian of Congress Robert Newlen is making personnel moves while the institution's leadership remains in limbo after Trump's attempted takeover last month, our Katherine Tully-McManus writes in.
Edward Jablonski will serve as senior adviser to the acting librarian and was previously the library's chief operating officer. The COO role will be filled by Roberto A. Salazar, who's been serving in an acting capacity since March 3. Jablonski is a Navy veteran who has been at the Library since 2006. Salazar was appointed by President George W. Bush to serve as national administrator of the USDA Food and Nutrition Services — but before that he was a Senate Page.
Former Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden spoke to CBS over the weekend about her firing by Trump. She said no one from the White House has talked to her directly, besides the brief email she received about her termination.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Breaking With Trump, Bacon Says He Won't Follow His Party 'Off the Cliff', from Annie Karni at The New York Times
MTG flirts with Georgia governor bid, from Greg Bluestein at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom, from Richard Rubin at The Wall Street Journal
CAPITOL HILL INFLUENCE
Jason McMahon will join Valinor Enterprises to build out its federal strategy and government relations efforts. He previously was a professional staff member on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
JOB BOARD
Kevin Orellana will be a legislative assistant for Rep. Vince Fong, handling his financial services portfolio. He previously was a legislative aide for Rep. Young Kim.
Gavin Proffitt is now a health policy adviser for Sen. Ron Johnson. He previously was a health policy adviser for the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Julianne Heberlein is now a speechwriter and press adviser for Sen. Deb Fischer. She previously was comms director for Rep. Rob Wittman and is a Larry Hogan alum.
Chelsea Blink is now legislative director for Rep. Lauren Underwood. She previously was director of farm animal legislation at the ASPCA.
Reedy Newton is now director of operations for Rep. Russell Fry. She previously was scheduler for Sen. Tim Scott and is a NRSC alum.
Martina McLennan is now director of policy comms for economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. She previously was comms director for Sen. Jeff Merkley.
Emily Druckman is now comms director and senior adviser for Rep. Kim Schrier. She most recently was communications director for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association and formerly led comms for Rep. Marc Veasey.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Former Rep. Kendra Horn … Ray Salazar of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's office … Joe Curl … Susannah Luthi … Margaret Talev … Liz Mair … Yonathan Teclu of Rep. Ilhan Omar's office … DSCC's Laura Matthews … Jess O'Connell of NEWCO Strategies … Dante Atkins … Candi Wolff of Citi … Ria Strasser-Galvis … Alexandra Toma … Lori Lodes of Climate Power … Democracy Forward's Skye Perryman … Daniel Rankin of Rep. Don Bacon's office … Aryele Bradford of Rep. Shomari Figures' office … Zac Petkanas … Semafor's Sara Amin
TRIVIA
FRIDAY'S ANSWER: Albert Wolf correctly answered that Rep. Laura Gillen was a scuba instructor in Thailand before she came to Congress.
TODAY'S QUESTION, from Mia: The Declaration of Independence painting in the Capitol Rotunda is painted by which American painter? How many paintings does this painter have on display in the Rotunda?
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to [e-mail].