Glory to Ukraine, bravo Odesa

UPI

6 days ago

People inspect the site of a drone strike in Odesa in southwestern Ukraine on March 21 amid the war with Russia. Much of the damage from earlier Russian strikes appears to have been repaired. File Photo by Igo Tkachenko/EPA-EFE
ODESA, Ukraine, June 4 (UPI) -- Spending four days in Odesa has been remarkable for many reasons. The main purpose was to attend the Black Sea Forum, largely sponsored by the very successful English businessman and philanthropist Lord Michael Ashcroft. This is one of the few if any Black Sea conferences actually held on the Black Sea.
The forum was intended to inform as many people as possible about the reality of this illegal war started by Russia and the consequences, good and ill, for the Ukrainian people.
Odesa is an extraordinary example of the positive side of the war. Ravaged by Russian attacks in early 2022, it is the quintessential example of a city seemingly not at war. Virtually all the damage has been repaired, thanks largely to courageous efforts of its residents, aided by many contributions from outside donors and non-governmental offices.
The few signs are a couple of bombed-out buildings and the presence of plywood replacements where glass windows were shattered by shrapnel or blasts. The streets, unlike many in the United States, are immaculate. However, it is the spirit and morale of the Odesa public that are extraordinary.
While not necessarily a cross-section of Ukrainian society, the people we met outside the conference, from cab drivers and hotel workers to waiters and barkeeps in restaurants, showed no sign of faltering under the weight of relentless Russian aggression. How long this will last may be an open question. But if Americans saw this city and their inhabitants, it would be impossible not to be impressed.
Given this testimony to human resilience and the can-do spirit, unfortunately, reality must take hold. No matter the courage and endurance Ukraine shows, unless the West and the United States are to expand military and financial support, possibly by an order of magnitude, time and numbers favor Moscow.
While in Odesa, four Russian drones were shot down outside the city and Operation Spider Web was carried out against Moscow's strategic bombers deep inside the country. In tactical terms, this was the equivalent of Jimmy Doolittle's famous raid over Tokyo in April 1942 and the Special Air Services destruction of more Nazi fighters on the ground than had been shot down in the north African desert the same year.
Apparently, the operation was a year and one-half in planning and brilliantly carried out. No doubt it was more than a pinprick, and it damaged or destroyed a significant percentage of these bombers.
But make no mistake: Vladimir Putin will retaliate. The more likely time frame will be in the so-called Russian summer offensive likely to start within a month or two.
My concern is this: Despite Russian tactical and operational incompetence at every level, that cannot be assumed to be the norm. Russia has made enormous advances in drone technology and other forms of war. The use of extremely light fiber optics to control drones out to 10 miles or more is exceptional. And the Russians have innovated in many other ways regarding improving drone lethality.
If launched properly, this offensive could drive south from Nikolayev in the east through Odesa and then west. In such an attack, the port would be shut and merchant ships attacked. There is evidence that Russia has a drone weapon that can target the bridge and pilot houses of ships, thereby knocking out command and control and effectively disabling each vessel.
It is impossible to know what the United States and its allies are doing to prepare for this Russian offensive, if anything, and if and how this will affect the thinking and decisions of President Donald Trump, who is, as George W. Bush proclaimed about himself, the "decider."
At the conference, the mayor of Odesa showed a nine-minute film that graphically portrayed the initial destruction of the city in 2022 and its remarkable rebuilding.
Whether it would make a difference if the film could be presented to Trump and his advisers, it is compelling in the extreme. The audience of some 1,000 conference attendees was moved. This film would be a prime candidate for an Academy Award as best short documentary.
The war in Ukraine may be -- and may be is too strong a phrase, perhaps -- at a turning point with the forthcoming offensive looming. If the offensive does not falter as those in the past have, the United States and the West will have to decide: Is it "slava" Ukraine -- glory to Ukraine -- or "dasvidaniya," or goodbye?
I fear it will be the latter.
Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist; senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.