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Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Glory to Ukraine, bravo Odesa
ODESA, Ukraine, June 4 (UPI) -- Spending four days in Odesa has been remarkable for many reasons. The main purpose was to attend the Black Sea Forum, largely sponsored by the very successful English businessman and philanthropist Lord Michael Ashcroft. This is one of the few if any Black Sea conferences actually held on the Black Sea. The forum was intended to inform as many people as possible about the reality of this illegal war started by Russia and the consequences, good and ill, for the Ukrainian people. Odesa is an extraordinary example of the positive side of the war. Ravaged by Russian attacks in early 2022, it is the quintessential example of a city seemingly not at war. Virtually all the damage has been repaired, thanks largely to courageous efforts of its residents, aided by many contributions from outside donors and non-governmental offices. The few signs are a couple of bombed-out buildings and the presence of plywood replacements where glass windows were shattered by shrapnel or blasts. The streets, unlike many in the United States, are immaculate. However, it is the spirit and morale of the Odesa public that are extraordinary. While not necessarily a cross-section of Ukrainian society, the people we met outside the conference, from cab drivers and hotel workers to waiters and barkeeps in restaurants, showed no sign of faltering under the weight of relentless Russian aggression. How long this will last may be an open question. But if Americans saw this city and their inhabitants, it would be impossible not to be impressed. Given this testimony to human resilience and the can-do spirit, unfortunately, reality must take hold. No matter the courage and endurance Ukraine shows, unless the West and the United States are to expand military and financial support, possibly by an order of magnitude, time and numbers favor Moscow. While in Odesa, four Russian drones were shot down outside the city and Operation Spider Web was carried out against Moscow's strategic bombers deep inside the country. In tactical terms, this was the equivalent of Jimmy Doolittle's famous raid over Tokyo in April 1942 and the Special Air Services destruction of more Nazi fighters on the ground than had been shot down in the north African desert the same year. Apparently, the operation was a year and one-half in planning and brilliantly carried out. No doubt it was more than a pinprick, and it damaged or destroyed a significant percentage of these bombers. But make no mistake: Vladimir Putin will retaliate. The more likely time frame will be in the so-called Russian summer offensive likely to start within a month or two. My concern is this: Despite Russian tactical and operational incompetence at every level, that cannot be assumed to be the norm. Russia has made enormous advances in drone technology and other forms of war. The use of extremely light fiber optics to control drones out to 10 miles or more is exceptional. And the Russians have innovated in many other ways regarding improving drone lethality. If launched properly, this offensive could drive south from Nikolayev in the east through Odesa and then west. In such an attack, the port would be shut and merchant ships attacked. There is evidence that Russia has a drone weapon that can target the bridge and pilot houses of ships, thereby knocking out command and control and effectively disabling each vessel. It is impossible to know what the United States and its allies are doing to prepare for this Russian offensive, if anything, and if and how this will affect the thinking and decisions of President Donald Trump, who is, as George W. Bush proclaimed about himself, the "decider." At the conference, the mayor of Odesa showed a nine-minute film that graphically portrayed the initial destruction of the city in 2022 and its remarkable rebuilding. Whether it would make a difference if the film could be presented to Trump and his advisers, it is compelling in the extreme. The audience of some 1,000 conference attendees was moved. This film would be a prime candidate for an Academy Award as best short documentary. The war in Ukraine may be -- and may be is too strong a phrase, perhaps -- at a turning point with the forthcoming offensive looming. If the offensive does not falter as those in the past have, the United States and the West will have to decide: Is it "slava" Ukraine -- glory to Ukraine -- or "dasvidaniya," or goodbye? I fear it will be the latter. Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist; senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.
UPI
6 days ago
- Business
- UPI
Glory to Ukraine, bravo Odesa
People inspect the site of a drone strike in Odesa in southwestern Ukraine on March 21 amid the war with Russia. Much of the damage from earlier Russian strikes appears to have been repaired. File Photo by Igo Tkachenko/EPA-EFE ODESA, Ukraine, June 4 (UPI) -- Spending four days in Odesa has been remarkable for many reasons. The main purpose was to attend the Black Sea Forum, largely sponsored by the very successful English businessman and philanthropist Lord Michael Ashcroft. This is one of the few if any Black Sea conferences actually held on the Black Sea. The forum was intended to inform as many people as possible about the reality of this illegal war started by Russia and the consequences, good and ill, for the Ukrainian people. Odesa is an extraordinary example of the positive side of the war. Ravaged by Russian attacks in early 2022, it is the quintessential example of a city seemingly not at war. Virtually all the damage has been repaired, thanks largely to courageous efforts of its residents, aided by many contributions from outside donors and non-governmental offices. The few signs are a couple of bombed-out buildings and the presence of plywood replacements where glass windows were shattered by shrapnel or blasts. The streets, unlike many in the United States, are immaculate. However, it is the spirit and morale of the Odesa public that are extraordinary. While not necessarily a cross-section of Ukrainian society, the people we met outside the conference, from cab drivers and hotel workers to waiters and barkeeps in restaurants, showed no sign of faltering under the weight of relentless Russian aggression. How long this will last may be an open question. But if Americans saw this city and their inhabitants, it would be impossible not to be impressed. Given this testimony to human resilience and the can-do spirit, unfortunately, reality must take hold. No matter the courage and endurance Ukraine shows, unless the West and the United States are to expand military and financial support, possibly by an order of magnitude, time and numbers favor Moscow. While in Odesa, four Russian drones were shot down outside the city and Operation Spider Web was carried out against Moscow's strategic bombers deep inside the country. In tactical terms, this was the equivalent of Jimmy Doolittle's famous raid over Tokyo in April 1942 and the Special Air Services destruction of more Nazi fighters on the ground than had been shot down in the north African desert the same year. Apparently, the operation was a year and one-half in planning and brilliantly carried out. No doubt it was more than a pinprick, and it damaged or destroyed a significant percentage of these bombers. But make no mistake: Vladimir Putin will retaliate. The more likely time frame will be in the so-called Russian summer offensive likely to start within a month or two. My concern is this: Despite Russian tactical and operational incompetence at every level, that cannot be assumed to be the norm. Russia has made enormous advances in drone technology and other forms of war. The use of extremely light fiber optics to control drones out to 10 miles or more is exceptional. And the Russians have innovated in many other ways regarding improving drone lethality. If launched properly, this offensive could drive south from Nikolayev in the east through Odesa and then west. In such an attack, the port would be shut and merchant ships attacked. There is evidence that Russia has a drone weapon that can target the bridge and pilot houses of ships, thereby knocking out command and control and effectively disabling each vessel. It is impossible to know what the United States and its allies are doing to prepare for this Russian offensive, if anything, and if and how this will affect the thinking and decisions of President Donald Trump, who is, as George W. Bush proclaimed about himself, the "decider." At the conference, the mayor of Odesa showed a nine-minute film that graphically portrayed the initial destruction of the city in 2022 and its remarkable rebuilding. Whether it would make a difference if the film could be presented to Trump and his advisers, it is compelling in the extreme. The audience of some 1,000 conference attendees was moved. This film would be a prime candidate for an Academy Award as best short documentary. The war in Ukraine may be -- and may be is too strong a phrase, perhaps -- at a turning point with the forthcoming offensive looming. If the offensive does not falter as those in the past have, the United States and the West will have to decide: Is it "slava" Ukraine -- glory to Ukraine -- or "dasvidaniya," or goodbye? I fear it will be the latter. Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist; senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Opinion - From Odesa with love: Ukraine fights on with or without the US
The city of Odesa, once the pearl of the Black Sea and host to nearly 1,000 attendees during this year's Black Sea Forum, has regained its luster. Aside from smatterings of plywood-covered windows and burned-out or partially destroyed buildings, one would be hard pressed to think that it was in a country under siege, fighting for its collective life. This city is enjoying, under the circumstances, a fairly normal existence. The streets are pristine, unlike in too many American cities. Much of the architecture is Russo-French in design, dating back to the turn of the 19th to the 20th century. But most impressive are the Ukrainians. Determined to win this war, one is reminded of the stubborn British enduring the Blitz and Hitler's relentless attacks. This seemingly boundless display of optimism extends to the taxi drivers, restaurants and hotel staff, and the non-conference-attending civilians I encountered during my time here. The message is clear and is echoed by most of the European delegates who attended from parliaments and ministries of government, including the military, as well as the private sector, media and academia: Russia is a menace. If not stopped in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is determined to wreck NATO and reestablish a new and greater Soviet Union-like empire. And America is unconscious or blind to this threat. On one hand, the war in Ukraine is not atop the list of things worrying most Americans. As someone in the distant past remarked, 'it's the economy, stupid.' On the other hand, the behavior of the current president fills the media and the airwaves on a daily basis, often blocking out other news and reporting. Yes, a growing percentage of Americans of both political parties say they support Ukraine, a statistic that is widely used here as evidence that the U.S. can and should do more. Yet, when pressed as to what that support should be in specific terms, from equipping Ukraine with the most modern weapons, to rebuilding a country largely still suffering the ravages of war, to the question of whether to send U.S. troops to the region or not, that consensus quickly dissipates. At this writing, while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and others have gained the support of some 80 of their colleagues to impose sanctions on Russia. Has that chamber suddenly grown a backbone to take on Donald Trump, who so far has dominated Congress in ways Lyndon Johnson would envy? That said, I take the Ukrainian rationale to smash Russia now before it becomes too great a threat — and many would argue that this view has taken hold across Ukraine — with a bit of cold water. I believe we in the West are exaggerating Russia's ability to mount a broader military assault; certainly, for now and for the foreseeable future, while it rebuilds a force that has reportedly taken nearly a million casualties. To be sure, a supermajority of Ukrainians do not accept that Putin's appetite will be satisfied if he perseveres in this war. But the fact is, the acidic warning that the only thing worse than being an enemy of the United States is being a friend or ally may apply here. Millions of Vietnamese, Afghans and Iraqis would not disagree with that observation. Will Ukraine be next is a tragic question that must be addressed. Many of us in the relatively small foreign and defense policy world argued that wars are often lost by getting too little too late; meaning that from Russia's February 2022 invasion (which, for too long, Trump incredibly blamed on Ukraine) the U.S. has not supplied enough weapons and sinews of war to enable the Ukrainian military to turn the tide of battle beyond halting, and in some places, reversing Russian gains. But that is the past. What next? Despite my dissenting analysis of Putin's military muscle, what Russia has done has to be reversed. That almost certainly will not happen. Now, Trump will decide Ukraine's fate for better, or more likely, worse. Tragedy can be defined as a collision with reality. There was every reason to support Ukraine while some exit strategy could be developed. Now it appears the Trump exit strategy will leave it up to the two combatants — Russia and Ukraine — to end the war. Should that be the case, we should not be surprised by the outcome. And frankly if that does happen, Americans should be ashamed. Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and David Richards are authors of the forthcoming book, 'The Arc of Failure: Can Decisive Strategic Thinking Transform a Dangerous World.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
03-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
From Odesa with love: Ukraine fights on with or without the US
The city of Odesa, once the pearl of the Black Sea and host to nearly 1,000 attendees during this year's Black Sea Forum, has regained its luster. Aside from smatterings of plywood-covered windows and burned-out or partially destroyed buildings, one would be hard pressed to think that it was in a country under siege, fighting for its collective life. This city is enjoying, under the circumstances, a fairly normal existence. The streets are pristine, unlike in too many American cities. Much of the architecture is Russo-French in design, dating back to the turn of the 19th to the 20th century. But most impressive are the Ukrainians. Determined to win this war, one is reminded of the stubborn British enduring the Blitz and Hitler's relentless attacks. This seemingly boundless display of optimism extends to the taxi drivers, restaurants and hotel staff, and the non-conference-attending civilians I encountered during my time here. The message is clear and is echoed by most of the European delegates who attended from parliaments and ministries of government, including the military, as well as the private sector, media and academia: Russia is a menace. If not stopped in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is determined to wreck NATO and reestablish a new and greater Soviet Union-like empire. And America is unconscious or blind to this threat. On one hand, the war in Ukraine is not atop the list of things worrying most Americans. As someone in the distant past remarked, 'it's the economy, stupid.' On the other hand, the behavior of the current president fills the media and the airwaves on a daily basis, often blocking out other news and reporting. Yes, a growing percentage of Americans of both political parties say they support Ukraine, a statistic that is widely used here as evidence that the U.S. can and should do more. Yet, when pressed as to what that support should be in specific terms, from equipping Ukraine with the most modern weapons, to rebuilding a country largely still suffering the ravages of war, to the question of whether to send U.S. troops to the region or not, that consensus quickly dissipates. At this writing, while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and others have gained the support of some 80 of their colleagues to impose sanctions on Russia. Has that chamber suddenly grown a backbone to take on Donald Trump, who so far has dominated Congress in ways Lyndon Johnson would envy? That said, I take the Ukrainian rationale to smash Russia now before it becomes too great a threat — and many would argue that this view has taken hold across Ukraine — with a bit of cold water. I believe we in the West are exaggerating Russia's ability to mount a broader military assault; certainly, for now and for the foreseeable future, while it rebuilds a force that has reportedly taken nearly a million casualties. To be sure, a supermajority of Ukrainians do not accept that Putin's appetite will be satisfied if he perseveres in this war. But the fact is, the acidic warning that the only thing worse than being an enemy of the United States is being a friend or ally may apply here. Millions of Vietnamese, Afghans and Iraqis would not disagree with that observation. Will Ukraine be next is a tragic question that must be addressed. Many of us in the relatively small foreign and defense policy world argued that wars are often lost by getting too little too late; meaning that from Russia's February 2022 invasion (which, for too long, Trump incredibly blamed on Ukraine) the U.S. has not supplied enough weapons and sinews of war to enable the Ukrainian military to turn the tide of battle beyond halting, and in some places, reversing Russian gains. But that is the past. What next? Despite my dissenting analysis of Putin's military muscle, what Russia has done has to be reversed. That almost certainly will not happen. Now, Trump will decide Ukraine's fate for better, or more likely, worse. Tragedy can be defined as a collision with reality. There was every reason to support Ukraine while some exit strategy could be developed. Now it appears the Trump exit strategy will leave it up to the two combatants — Russia and Ukraine — to end the war. Should that be the case, we should not be surprised by the outcome. And frankly if that does happen, Americans should be ashamed. Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and David Richards are authors of the forthcoming book, 'The Arc of Failure: Can Decisive Strategic Thinking Transform a Dangerous World.'
