Why are so few candidates dipping their toe in the water in the race for the Áras?

The Journal

6 hours ago

IT'S JUST A few months out from the presidential election, yet the public is none the wiser about who is interested in the top job, despite months of speculation about the runners and riders.
The political parties have been very much in assessment mode trying to figure out who they might put forward, but the government parties do not appear to be in a rush to get the campaign going.
Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin confirmed this week that his party is still taking 'soundings' from people who might be interested in running.
Yesterday, Martin said
he was not aware of any engagement
with former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood over becoming the party's candidate for the Irish presidency, despite Eastwood stating that he may be interested.
MEP Barry Andrews has ruled himself out of running for the party, with some chatter that his colleague MEP Cynthia Ní Mhurchú might be interested.
Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern
has long been talked about, but while some diehard fans of his within the party would only love to see him make a comeback, it is understood in party HQ, dredging up the past is not being viewed as a good move.
In case you're wondering, Martin has also
ruled himself out
.
Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris confirmed this week that presidential candidate nominations for the party will open in early July and will close in mid July. If there is more than one candidate, then a ballot will be held during the summer and the winner announced probably in September.
Former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness has not ruled herself out, with some party sources stating she is 'everywhere', which speaks to her drumming up support. However, others state that MEP Sean Kelly is also keen to throw his hat in the ring, even if it is only to spark hustings within the party.
Harris told
The Journal
in March
that he thinks competition for the candidacy would be 'healthy' for the party.
So other than the two main government parties, who else is in the mix?
While there had been talk that the united opposition would come together to nominate a candidate, they haven't been able to get their act together. Names such as Senator Frances Black and TD Catherine Connolly have been mentioned as possibilities.
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However, Black told Newstalk recently that while she was initially approached about being a possible candidate, the senator said she has heard nothing since.
Whether that was a message for the Left to pick up the phone and get a move on, it remains to be seen, as
Black stated she is over 98% certain she isn't running
.
Connolly is understood to be a favourite among many Left-leaning parties, but some sources state the Labour Party have some issues with the nomination.
One person who might fit the brief is MEP Luke 'Ming' Flanagan
who has confirmed that running is something he might consider.
Flanagan said that he believes he has a chance of winning the election, with his appeal across a number of different constituencies as a three-time independent MEP for Midlands North West.
And what about Sinn Féin?
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill has not ruled out a run for the upcoming presidential election.
When asked yesterday if she was considering putting her name forward, O'Neill said Sinn Féin is working its way through deliberations on putting forward a candidate.
Not a no then. MEP Lynn Boylan also stated on RTÉ Radio yesterday that she wasn't going for the job.
Party president Mary Lou McDonald has also ruled herself out
.
Who else might be runners in the race?
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has said his party intends to run a candidate in the presidential election, though name has been forthcoming.
Businessman Peter Casey has declared he wants to run again. He got 23% of the vote in the presidential election in 2018 but he didn't fare too great in the European Elections where he got 3% of the vote in the Midlands-North-West constituency.
Other names that have been mentioned include Irish Times columnist Fintan O'Toole, who said he would not rule out a bid but that he would not do it alone.
Former TD and co-founder of the Social Democrats Róisín Shortall topped a newspaper poll before Christmas as the favourite to be Ireland's next President at 32%.
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Shortall told the Mail on Sunday at the time that she 'hasn't decided' what her next move will be, so watch this space.
There remains speculation about a few RTÉ stars who might run, such as Liveline's Joe Duffy, who is due to exit from his role with the broadcaster at the end of this month, which could be timely.
Presenter Miriam O'Callaghan, who was talked about as a possible runner back in 2018, is also still in the mix, with some pointing to her new memoir that has recently been released.
Comedian/actor and RTÉ presenter Tommy Tiernan was also quizzed in a recent interview with RTÉ's Brendan O'Connor, where he didn't categorically rule out the prospect.
Of course, there's also MMA fighter Conor McGregor, who hasn't been shy about his ambitions to be the next president.
The chances for his candidacy are slim though as candidates need the backing of 20 members of the Oireachtas or four councils to get on the ballot paper.
This gives political parties a major advantage, given the numbers.
While we generally have a better idea during the summer of who the candidates, things are moving at a slower pace this time around.
It's understood that given the previous bloodbath presidential election campaigns, the main political parties are wary of a long campaign and what it might unearth about any potential candidates.
A short, snappy campaign is being favoured.
Michael D. Higgins, the current president was inaugurated for his second term on 11 November 2018, meaning the next presidential election is scheduled to take place on or up to 60 days before 11 November 2025.
But at this rate, it could be late-August or early September before we finally see how the ballot paper might shape up.
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