Risks remain in Syria but none of the main players want the country to implode

The National

25-05-2025

Syrian businessman Khaldoun Qassem is in two minds on whether to return from Warsaw for good and invest in his homeland, which he fled during the civil war. US and EU decisions in the past ten days to lift sanctions on the Syrian economy have helped mitigate some risks. No longer does he expect problems to liquidate part of a small fortune he has made in exile and transfer it to Syria. This is in case he goes ahead with a plan to turn one of several courtyard houses he owns in Old Damascus into a hotel. Still, Mr Qassem, a supporter of President Ahmad Al Shara, believes Syria has not yet left the danger zone. Crime and lawlessness are rife. The economy and the infrastructure are in shambles after 14 years of civil war that resulted in the removal of Bashar Al Assad by forces led by Mr Al Shara's Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), an armed group with past links to Al Qaeda . Although western and Arab powers have given Mr Al Shara 'the green light' to try to turn the country around, Mr Qassem fears that some of his own base could undermine his rule. He cites armed militants who patrol parts of Old Damascus and are blamed for enforcing gender segregation in public spaces and for carrying a deadly raid on a nightclub. Mr Al Shara has promised accountability and fair elections, despite a vague timetable and accusations of continuous sectarian killings. "Jihadists" in the system are bad for business,' Mr Qassem said. 'There are two Syrias. The one the president is talking about, which is not the same as the one some of the state-sponsored militants think they are living in. 'If they do not adapt, Al Shara must purge them,' he said, adding that he plans to wait six months before deciding whether to return to Damascus for good. Risks to stabilisation go beyond whether Mr Shara is in full control of the myriad currents that form his military base. Washington has twinned its lifting of sanctions with warnings that if financial inflows do not soon arrive to Syria, pressure on livelihoods could swell ISIS's ranks. The country, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, could slide into another civil war, resurrecting the influence of Iran, the main regional backer of the former regime. A European diplomat said the EU's decision to lift sanctions was motivated by a need to stop the country turning into another Libya. This undermines the official narrative that Syria is open for business, with the new state having awarded a French and a UAE company concessions to operate Syria's two main ports. Mr Al Shara has been setting up multilayered security structures to spread the reach of the new, HTS dominated state. He has sent waves of auxiliaries to quell resistance in areas inhabited by Alawites, the sect whose members ruled majority Sunni Syria for almost six decades, and is now primary target of the sectarian killings. Last month, military intervention by Israel halted an onslaught by HTS-allied militias on the Druze minority. The sect's heartland in the southern province of Suweida continues to come under attack. However, Mr Al Shara is yet to find an answer to a recalcitrant foe: the US-backed, mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia, which is in control of large swathes of eastern Syria. The area, near the border with Turkey is the main reservoir of the country's oil, gas and commodities. Turkey, the main non-Arab backer of Mr Al Shara, regards SDF as a main enemy. In March, the SDF agreed to join the new state, but no substantial progress has been made, with the SDF insisting to remain as a separate division within the army. Ties frayed further after the SDF convened a Kurdish conference last month that demanded a federal system, which was rejected by Mr Al Shara. An SDF official did not rule out that the US might at one point abandon the SDF in a possible deal with Turkey, noting that President Donald Trump met Mr Al Shara in Riyadh upon the urgings of Ankara, and Saudi Arabia. However, the Syrian leader will undermine his international position if he moves military against the SDF, he said. 'There is ten per cent chance of war,' the official told The National. "I don't think Al Shara will embark on it because his international image is so important for him". Another diplomat cautioned that Mr Al Shara's perceived heavy handedness in dealing with outlaying regions could cause the minorities to unite against him. The issues of minorities have also contributed to tensions between Turkey and Israel, which is irked by Turkish expansionism, does not want Jihadists near its border and may benefit if Syria's new central authorities remain weak. Turkey has condemned Israel's intervention in favour of the Druze. Israeli media reported this week that the two countries have reached an agreement mediated by Azerbaijan to minimise the risk of clashes between their forces in Syria, indicating that as much as their interest diverge in Syria, neither want to risk a tipping point into war. Kamel Ghribi, chairman of GKSD Holding, a company based in Milan and specialising in infrastructure and healthcare, expects Syria to remain vulnerable "to push and pull forces" until a balance is reached. Mr Ghibri, who recently met Mr Al Shara in Damascus, said the Syrian government must act in the wake of the removal of sanctions to "build trust" through "genuine commitment to political reform, accountability and human rights". Stabilisation in Syria, which links Europe with the Gulf, could reactivate trade routes and energy pipelines, "benefiting the entire region", he said.