
Trump cannot hope to solve a China ‘problem' he has misdiagnosed
Amid a US-China trade truce, negotiators in London reached a
'framework' agreement to activate the Geneva deal, raising hopes for an immediate alleviation of the trade conflict, including potentially a US commitment to
revoke some of its tech embargoes in return for China's relaxation of rare earth export restrictions.
The full details of the London agreement are expected to be available after both US President
Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have approved it.
The two-day London negotiations had swiftly followed
Trump's call with Xi last Thursday, more than four months into his second term. Both sides had continued to cross swords over trade after their officials
met in Geneva last month.
Critically, China unprecedentedly tightened its
rare earth exports , displaying its ability to retaliate. The pain inflicted on US car manufacturers and
defence companies was obviously the most pressing reason for Trump to talk to Xi, as the trade tussle was rapidly escalating into a crisis of global supply chains.
The London talks may have de-escalated tensions but I see little room for optimism – unless they also spark a reorientation of Washington's trade and foreign policy thinking.
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