NBA Finals odds: Oklahoma City among most lopsided favorites ever against Indiana

New York Times

2 days ago

One city will soon win its first NBA championship, and the odds are saying it's far more likely to be Oklahoma City than Indianapolis. The Thunder are heavily favored to beat the Pacers in the NBA Finals, set to start on Thursday.
On BetMGM, the Thunder are -700 to beat the Pacers in the finals. After winning 68 games in the regular season and cruising past Minnesota in five games in the Western Conference finals with three wins by double-digits, including a 30-point victory in Game 5, it's no surprise to see the Thunder as favorites.
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For context, the Thunder were -350 to beat Minnesota, -800 to get by Denver in the second round and an even more dominant -2000 to beat Memphis in the first round. Considering Denver took the Thunder to a Game 7 and the Timberwolves only won one game, the odds haven't correlated with how competitive the series have been.
Not only is Oklahoma City clearly expected to win, but the odds also point to a short series. According to BetMGM's odds, the most likely outcome is the Thunder winning in five games, which pays out at +200. The next most likely outcome is a Thunder sweep at +325.
The Thunder are the biggest favorites in several years entering the NBA Finals. Even last year, with a 64-win Boston against a 50-win Dallas, the Celtics were only -225 to win.
The last time one team was this strongly favored entering the finals was 2018, when the Golden State Warriors were -1075 in the fourth of four-straight finals against LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers. Golden State swept that series.
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, this matches the seventh-most lopsided odds for an NBA Finals. The 2001 Lakers were the biggest favorite in the history of the finals with -2000 odds against the Philadelphia 76ers. Allen Iverson famously stepped over Tyronn Lue in a Game 1 upset, but the Lakers won the next four games.
There is hope for the Pacers, according to this list. The 2004 Detroit Pistons had the same +500 odds to beat the Lakers as the Pacers have now and the Pistons won that series in five games. That's the only upset in the group.
There's no shock that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the regular season MVP, is also a massive favorite to win NBA Finals MVP at -625. It's hard to see Oklahoma City winning without SGA being the MVP.
If Indiana is able to spring the upset, it's likely to be Tyrese Haliburton, who has +700 odds for the award. However, Pascal Siakam (+2200) just won MVP of the Eastern Conference finals.
Both teams are looking to break through with their first-ever titles. The Thunder made the finals in 2012 in their fourth season after moving from Seattle. That year, James' Miami Heat beat Oklahoma City in five games. The Thunder have had two more conference finals appearances since.
Meanwhile, Indiana's only other finals appearance came in 2000, when Shaquille O'Neal's Los Angeles Lakers beat the Pacers in six games. This year was the 10th time the Pacers made the Eastern Conference finals since 1994, but only their second victory.
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In more recent history, the Thunder beat the Pacers in both meetings this regular season. OKC picked up a 120-114 win in Indiana on Dec. 26 and a 132-111 win in Oklahoma on March 29.
In a bit of trivia, this year's finals is also a meeting of the two losing finalists in the NBA Cup. Indiana lost in the final last year to the Lakers, while the Thunder lost to Milwaukee this year.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: William Purnell / Getty Images)