India's strike will hit Pak where it hurts the most

Time of India

06-05-2025

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India's dam strike is already spooking Pakistan
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A strike where it hurts the most, the stomach
Pakistan's domestic water wars
Inflation can again shoot up
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While Pakistan nervously awaits India to hit it with a surgical strike to avenge the Pahalgam terror attack, as it had done in case of Pulwama attack in 2019, India has already launched a surgical strike -- a strike on Pakistan's food economy. While India is expected to be planning a military action against Pakistan, it has since Sunday restricted flows through Jammu's Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric dams on the Chenab river that runs on to Pakistan, causing an unprecedented drop in water levels. The actions demonstrate India's ability to regulate timing of water releases and comes after the Centre's decision to suspend Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack. Under IWT, India would have had to inform Pakistan before regulating Chenab's waters.The move is part of the country's detailed roadmap, prepared after suspension of the IWT to prevent and regulate flow of western rivers -- Indus, Jhelum and Chenab -- to Pakistan.Limited flushing and desilting of reservoirs at Baglihar and Salal - both run-of-the-river hydro-power projects on the Chenab river -- are being undertaken by India in an immediate move to prepare them for storing and regulating flow of water to Pakistan during the winters. TOI has reported that more dams will undergo the process in coming days to ensure better storage in India.Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee on Monday expressed deep concern over a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India, which may result in a 21% water shortage in Pakistan during the early Kharif season. IRSA Advisory Committee meeting was held to approve the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the balance period of Kharif from May to September 2025."Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee (IAC) reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of "Early Kharif" (May-Jun 10) Late Kharif (Jun 11-Sep) season. It was noted with concern unanimously that sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in Early Kharif Season," the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) stated in a press release.Pakistan may face a significant water shortage during the Kharif season due to reduced water supplies from India. "IAC declared an overall shortage of 21 per cent for the remaining Early Kharif Season in case supplies in River Chenab remains normal. However, the situation would be monitored daily and if the decrease continues in "River Chenab", the shortages would be revisited accordingly. The Late Kharif Shortages are expected to be 7 per cent," it added.The IWT suspension by India can considerably affect Pakistan, as this agreement regulates the usage and allocation of water from the Indus River system and its tributaries, which are essential for Pakistan's water requirements and agricultural sector. The Indus River network, comprising the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers, serves as Pakistan's principal water resource, supporting a population of tens of millions.Pakistan receives about 80% of the total water flow, which is vital for agriculture in Pakistan, especially in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Pakistan relies substantially on this water supply for irrigation, farming and potable water.The agricultural sector contributes 23% to Pakistan's national income and supports 68% of its rural inhabitants. The Indus basin supplies 154.3 million acre-feet of water yearly, which is vital for irrigating extensive agricultural areas and ensuring food security. Any interruption to water flow would significantly impact Pakistan's agricultural sector, a crucial component of its economy and rural livelihoods.Reduced water availability will likely lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability in rural areas dependent on farming. Pakistan already faces critical water management issues such as groundwater depletion, salinization of agricultural lands, and limited water storage capacity. The country's water storage capacity is low, with major dams like Mangla and Tarbela having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF, which is just 10% of Pakistan's annual water share under the treaty. The suspension exacerbates these vulnerabilities by cutting off a guaranteed water supply, leaving Pakistan with fewer options to manage its water needs.The suspension of IWT by India comes at a time when the implications of the move will hit the Pakistani establishment hard.People in the Sindh province of Pakistan have been protesting against a project aimed to divert Indus river water in Punjab which would decrease the downstream supply to Sindh. The project, which the Pakistani government says it has shelved due to protests, happens to have the blessings of army chief Gen. Asim Munir who is believed to have approved the Pahalgam terror attack. When Sindhis are protesting against a part of their share of water in the Indus river going to Punjab, suspension of IWT will create further unrest in Pakistan because now India diverting Indus waters will squeeze the supply to Pakistan, fuelling domestic conflicts over sharing of water.India reducing the flow of water to Pakistan will hit crop yields and cause a spike in food inflation. In the past few years, Pakistan has seen one of its worst spells of inflation which it is now bringing under control.Amid easing of inflation, Pakistan's central bank on Monday decided to cut the policy rate by 1 per cent, bringing it to 11 per cent. The low inflation is primarily attributed to lower prices of key food staples such as wheat and its derivatives, onions, potatoes and certain pulses, as well as a cut in electricity and fuel charges. These items carry significant weight in the inflation basket - the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - meaning minor price changes can heavily influence the overall rate.Restriction of water supply by India will show effect on the Kharif output which can spike inflation once again.Inflation in Pakistan has been declining for several months, hitting low double digits in February, after it soared to around 40% in May 2023. Pakistan has been trying to prove to its lenders that it is improving its macroeconomic conditions. Pakistan says its $350 billion economy has stabilized under the $7 billion IMF bailout that had helped it stave off a default threat in 2023.Moody's Rating has said recently that Pakistan's macroeconomic conditions have been "improving", with growth gradually rising, inflation declining and foreign-exchange reserves increasing amid continued progress in the IMF programme.If restriction of water by India lowers the crop yield and boosts food prices, Pakistan will again be struggling with high inflation.(With inputs from TOI and agencies)