Erin Rapidly Strengthens To A Category 4 Hurricane
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Met Office issues bank holiday update as Hurricane Erin continues to impact UK weather
August bank holiday weekend is just around the corner, and with many people making plans with friends, family and loved ones, they might be wondering what the weather is set to be like. The extended weekend is set to be fairly dry - good news for those planning to enjoy their time off outside - with a small chance of showers, according to Met Office forecasts. Due to Hurricane Erin, which is soon to become just a classical weather system, there is "uncertainty" over conditions in the UK, the Met Office explains. READ MORE: Haven responds after reports of asylum seekers being moved into holiday parks during summer breaks READ MORE: UK households warned of rules if neighbour's tree is blocking sunlight in your home or garden In a ten day forecast, Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin explained that although things have felt a little cooler these last few days, high pressure is set to build through the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures. "Throughout the weekend there's always the possibility of some showers coming into the West and they can't be completely ruled out particularly on Monday across the far southwest because we could see things getting a bit complicated by then because of this weather system which is of course what's left of Erin. "It is a hurricane, but as we go through the weekend, it will go through what's called extra tropical transition. So it's no longer a hurricane. It's no longer a tropical storm. It is no longer being fuelled by the sea because it's moved northwards over cooler waters. It is now a classical weather system. "There will still be the threat of one or two showers possibly in the southwest on Monday." A lot of the outcome of the weather depends on the jet stream, which is a high-altitude, fast-flowing air current that circles the globe, and whether it picks up Storm Erin. Alex explained: "By Erin moving northwards it creates that temperature contrast which really generates this first arm of the jet stream. So Erin really initially pushes the jet stream on, but then what happens as it changes it goes from being a hurricane to being a more typical area of low pressure. "What happens now is it draws in that colder air behind it on its back edge and now the temperature contrast is on its southern side which is why the jet stream goes from being active ahead of it to potentially being more active to the south of it and that crossing of the jet stream means that low pressure system, no longer a hurricane, could intensify because of its movements across the jet stream. "But it's kind of a chicken-and-egg thing because it's it's generally also sparking that increase in jet stream because of the way it's drawing down the colder air from further north and then the temperature contrast is more marked to the south of it rather than to the north of it. "So quite a complex interaction going on with what will be ex-hurricane Erin by this stage and when we've got that complex interaction with a highly energetic system, well it does bring some uncertainty to the forecast." The UK-wide Met Office forecast for Saturday to Monday reads: "There will be a chance of the odd light shower during the Bank Holiday weekend. Most areas will remain fine however, with clear or sunny spells. Turning a little warmer." Looking ahead at the period between August 25 and September 3, the long range forecast reads: "The forecast for Bank Holiday Monday is for reasonably fair weather, with light winds and sunny spells continuing from the weekend. "However there is still a small chance that western or southwestern parts could see some cloudier skies and a few showers. As the week goes on, skies may become generally cloudier, and there is an increasing chance of outbreaks of rain and showers. "Any precipitation would be initially across the southwestern half of the UK, and possibly spreading further north and east at times. That being said, fair conditions are still possible between weather systems. Winds could be breezy at times too, especially around exposed coasts and some hills." For this period, temperatures are set to be around normal, perhaps a "little above" normal in some places where sunny spells persist.
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
Hurricane Erin Is Disrupting Both Europe's Weather and Forecasts
Hurricane Erin is muddling computer models and making forecasters, analysts and traders question the accuracy of the outlook for heat, wind and storms across Europe next week. Erin, which churned through the Atlantic 330 kilometers (205 miles) off the North Carolina coast on Thursday, is set to create atmospheric ripple effects that could amplify heat and storms in Europe.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane forecast: Erin brings thunderous surf, likely quiet spell till mid-September
The 2010s were an emotional decade. Even the birds were angry. Yet between the cold-pressed juices and hot sauce podcasts, one key tropical ingredient was missing: major hurricane landfalls on the U.S. East Coast. In fact, while hurricane seasons since 2006 have seen historically high U.S. landfall activity, all ten Category 3, 4, or 5 landfalls have occurred between Texas and the Florida Keys. Compare this to a similarly busy period between 1945 and 1964, in which five Gulf Coast major hurricanes were accompanied by a whopping eight from South Florida to New England. Reels and 'Toks to the contrary, Hurricane Erin did not snap the East Coast's 21-year lucky streak following 2004's Hurricane Jeanne. And it's a good thing it didn't, because Erin is an absolute monster. Erin will bring a thunderous surf and low-end tropical storm force winds to mid-Atlantic Coast After riding a top 5 all-time rate of 24-hour rapid intensification to Category 5 intensity over the weekend, Erin has survived eyewall replacement cycles and bouts with wind shear to become one of the larger hurricanes in recent years. While Erin's maximum sustained winds as of Wednesday evening are just shy of Category 3 strength, hurricane-force sustained winds span a diameter of 150 miles, with tropical-storm-force winds over 450 miles wide. Erin's strongest winds have been located by Hurricane Hunters in a broad eastern eyewall wrapped around a smaller core, giving the storm the coiled appearance on visible satellite imagery of the world's largest and most energetic Cinnabon. That tender, flaky spiral covers much of space between Bermuda and North Carolina's Outer Banks. Erin's center is taking a path down the middle of that passage, as its northward track bends northeast and accelerates through early Friday. That will limit Erin's onshore wind impacts to low-end tropical-storm-force wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Outer Banks north to the wild ponies of Chincoteague, Virginia. However, the breadth of that windfield will drive peak 2-3'+ of storm surge across eastern North Carolina, and possibly as far north as New Jersey, despite the center passing at least 250 miles offshore. Coastal flooding is a major risk. The main impacts of Erin will be thunderous surf of 6-12' or more and powerful rip currents through the first half of the weekend on beaches from Florida to New England. Littoral hazards have accounted for about 1-in-6 hurricane deaths in the last decade, so when the NHC urges 'against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents,' that's why. Erin's legacy includes watering down the tropical threats behind her Erin will become a vigorous post-tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic over the weekend, but its effects will linger, including on two tropical disturbances tagged by the NHC as code orange (40-60% chance) candidates for development over the next 7 days. As Erin departs, it will reinforce jet stream troughing over the eastern U.S. — the pattern which has frequently protected the East Coast over the last two decades — and that should absorb the Orange Julius chasers to Erin's Cinnabon. Thus, there is no credible indication of any U.S. landfall threat for the rest of August. Of the two tropical disturbances, a tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is the stronger bet for medium-term development, most likely as it passes north of the islands this weekend and early next week. That deep eastern U.S. troughing will turn anything that forms north in the general direction of Bermuda, so we don't need to worry about it. Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been maintaining impressive thunderstorm activity for the last couple of days, but isn't quite organized enough at the surface to qualify as a tropical depression. This wave may briefly develop, but by Friday looks to be scoured by dry air and weaken again. After Erin, it could be relatively quiet all the way to mid-September It's worth watching the leftover disturbance down the road should it continue west into the Caribbean, but there's no cause for concern. Otherwise, unfavorable upper-level wind conditions are expected to kick up this week over the Atlantic's Main Development Region, and the end of August and first week of September should be relatively quiet in the Tropics. Things may perk up again towards mid-September and beyond, aided by an increasing tilt towards the La Niña-like environmental conditions favorable for hurricane activity. That means you should have a default skepticism towards any rumors of storms Zuckerberg apps confront you with for the foreseeable future. As a rule, forecast models are not accurate or skillful for individual storms beyond seven days ahead of time. One to two weeks out, the average output of many individual members of a model ensemble can give a useful sense of whether the overall pattern is favorable or unfavorable for tropical activity, but can't predict specific storm tracks. Location-specific impact forecasts really can't enter the conversation more than 3 to 5 days from a potential landfall. Finally, consider the source of your information. Gulf Coast Extreme Hurricane/Monster Jam ALERT HQ is an estimable outlet for the latest news on Dennis Anderson, but those Sons of Guh-rave Digger didn't stay in school until 22nd grade studying hurricanes like I did. (Also I'm more of a Bigfoot fan.) If it was up to the fear merchants, the 21-year U.S. East Coast major hurricane landfall drought would have ended about ten times in the 2010s, instead of still thankfully going strong even in Erin's wake. Enjoy the break from tropical threats coming our way and keep watching the skies. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit to learn more. Email Truchelut at ryan@ This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida hurricane forecast: As Erin passes, tropics may go quiet
