Why Labour's path to power is relevant internationally

Arab News

03-03-2025

https://arab.news/vxxhk
The UK Labour Party last week celebrated the 125th anniversary of its founding, following last year's 100th anniversary of the first Labour government. While sometimes written off as a political force in the past, the party's landslide victory in 2024 may now offer insights for other centrist and center-left parties seeking to win back power.
To be sure, Labour's election record is not nearly as good as that of its chief rival, the Conservative Party, which is sometimes called the most successful democratic political party in the world. Nonetheless, from humble origins, Labour has put its stamp on UK politics in the 20th and 21st centuries.
It was on Feb. 27, 1900, that trade unions and socialist groups came together to form the UK Labour Representation Committee. This was the first step toward the party's formation.
What started with a motion from railway workers in Doncaster led to a meeting in London, where delegates united behind a call for a Labour voice in Parliament. The party won just two seats in the 1900 election, but it gradually built a movement that would win power multiple times.
The party has tended to do best when it has offered a clear, bold and optimistic vision for the future of the country. Thus, Prime Minister Clement Attlee in 1945 developed a historic reform program that included the creation of the National Health Service, helping him win reelection in 1950.
This was followed by the modernizing missions of Harold Wilson, who won four general elections (in 1964, 1966 and two in a single year, 1974) and Tony Blair, who won three successive election victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
Given the electoral success of the Conservatives, Labour's victories have often followed significant periods in the political wilderness. The party was shut out of power between 1951 and 1964, 1979 and 1997 and 2010 and 2024, for instance.
At times during these periods, Labour was written off as a political force. Yet, so far at least, the party has always bounced back.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer today finds himself with relatively few left-of-center and centrist allies across the world. This was reinforced by this month's German election, which saw Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz turfed out of power.
Meanwhile, in the US, the Democrats last November lost control of not only the presidency, but also the Senate. This means that Republicans now control all three federal institutions, the so-called trifecta of power, including the House of Representatives.
As much of the political center and left around the world licks the wounds of defeat, there may be insights from Labour's last half-decade that are of relevance for a fightback.
Labour suffered a significant setback in the 2019 election, winning just 202 seats — its lowest total since the 1935 general election. The party's pathway since may be particularly relevant for the Democrats ahead of the 2026 congressional elections and 2028 presidential ballot, when President Donald Trump will be constitutionally barred from standing for reelection.
It remains highly uncertain whether the political appeal that surrounds Trump today can be transferred to any single successor, even someone in his family. Instead, like Boris Johnson, whose Conservatives won in 2019 in an election shaped by Brexit, much of the president's Make America Great Again appeal may be tied to just one individual with unusual political strengths and weaknesses.
Like Labour, the Democrats have proven themselves able to rejuvenate after major setbacks, including three straight presidential election defeats in the 1980s. The reason why the Democrats may now benefit from insights from Labour is that the nature of the Republican victory in 2024 had such parallels with the UK's Conservatives in 2019.
What delivered Trump's win was his demolition of the Democrats' so-called blue wall, including in Michigan and Wisconsin. He also dented Democratic majorities in several northeastern states, including New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Meanwhile, Sun Belt states in the South held strong for Republicans.
This pattern has significant similarities with Johnson's victory in 2019. Then, he knocked down the 'red wall' in the English North and Midlands, while retaining political predominance in Southern England.
From humble origins, Labour has put its stamp on UK politics in the 20th and 21st centuries.
Andrew Hammond
Both Trump and Johnson effectively tapped into the anti-establishment mood that has shaped the Western political landscape since at least the international financial crisis that began in 2008. They both brought together powerful coalitions defined by cultural conservatism, including on immigration, with promises to support economically challenged regions. These insurgent coalitions were very unusual compared to those led by other Conservatives and Republicans in recent decades.
For Johnson, a key focus was winning over voters in the areas Labour tended to regard as its historical political heartland. This saw him espousing what he called a 'leveling-up' agenda, with an ambition of seeking to spread economic and social opportunity more equally across the country.
However, Johnson was forced out of office in 2022 after a series of scandals, despite some predictions in 2019 that he could remain in power for a decade. So, especially as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, he got no big, sustained traction on his important agenda and Labour won back a critical mass of the red wall in 2024.
While Trump's coalition won him power again last November, it may also fragment sooner rather than later, especially if the Democrats can respond as quickly to their defeat as Labour did after 2019. The US electorate, like that of the UK, remains febrile and will punish the Republicans if the party is perceived as not delivering in the coming years.