Canada election 2025 live: first polls close in neck-and-neck race

Times

29-04-2025

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Results are trickling in after a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives was turned on its head by Trump's tariffs
The Times
What you need to know
Results are starting to trickle in as the first polls have closed
The Liberal leader Mark Carney is facing off against the Conservatives' Pierre Poilievre
Polls have suggested the race will be tight after the Liberals' near decade in power
Carney, who took over as prime minister last month after Justin Trudeau's resignation, has run a campaign on his economic credentials and President Trump's threats against Canada
Poilievre is a firebrand populist whose combative style has drawn comparisons to Trump
Listen to live updates on Times Radio
11 minutes ago
2.20am
Liberals comfortably ahead
With counting well under way, the Liberals are projected to win 19 seats in the next parliament and lead in four other races.
The Conservatives have claimed six seats, including the only flip of the night so far, and lead in four more races.
In the popular vote, the Liberals are ahead comfortably with 52 per cent of the vote counted compared with the Conservatives' 41 per cent.
Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, the party that wins the most seats will be invited to form the next government.
29 minutes ago
2.02am
The Conservatives are making the best of the early running as the vote count continues.
The opposition party has increased their share of the vote by about 12 points across the four provinces of the Atlantic Canada region, while their Liberal rivals have gained 7 points, according to the CBC.
Third parties such as the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois have seen their support evaporate in recent months as fears grew about the trade war with the US.
31 minutes ago
2.00am
In pictures: gearing up for the results
Bloc Québécois supporters at the party's election night headquarters in Montreal
MATHIEU BELANGER/REUTERS
MATHIEU BELANGER/REUTERS
The Conservatives have flipped their first seat of the night, with the CBC projecting that Carol Anstey will win the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Long Range Mountains.
With about half of the vote counted, Anstey had 55 per cent of the vote to 38 per cent for Don Bradshaw, the Liberal incumbent.
The tally sits at five to three in the Liberals' favour from a total of 343 federal election seats.
1 hour ago
1.27am
First win of the night goes to Liberals
The Liberals have picked up the first victory of the night.
The CBC, the public broadcaster, is projecting that Philip Earle will retain the seat of Labrador for Mark Carney's party in the first result of the evening.
The Liberals are also projected to hold the ridings of Cape Spear and Acadie-Bathurst, while the Conservative Party is projected to hold the riding of Central Newfoundland.
Elections Canada has said that 'some electors are experiencing difficulties' accessing its website.
With voting still open in most provinces, the agency provided a phone number people could call to find a polling booth or check their voter identification card.
They did not explain why the website had crashed.
After a month of stump speeches thick with ice hockey metaphors, Mark Carney's campaign will come to an end at an arena which is usually home to the Ottawa 67s.
The TD Place Arena has been dressed for the occasion, with back curtains lit in shades of red. An announcer, apparently testing the sound system, just asked the empty arena to welcome Carney's wife, Diane Fox Carney, to the stage.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party will see in the results at a convention centre in the capitol a few miles to the north.
The Elections Canada website appeared to be down as the first votes were being counted in the general election.
It is unclear what caused the outage, but the site appeared to be unavailable across large parts of Canada, according to the CBC, the public broadcaster.
Elections Canada, which is responsible for running federal elections, has so far not provided a statement on the outage.
Ballots in Canada are counted by hand, and observers say the outage is unlikely to impact the counting of votes.
1 hour ago
12.57am
Who do you think will win?
1 hour ago
12.55am
Young Canadians hope for Conservative win
JENNIFER GAUTHIER/REUTERS
Casting their votes today, many Canadians remarked on the strange reversal that has seen the Liberal Party attracting older voters, anxious to maintain the status quo, while many younger voters seek change via the Conservatives.
'I prefer Pierre Poilievre, I feel like he has a better grasp of what's better for the young people's futures, like mine,' said Julia Sajnog, 27, who runs a bakery business, sitting outside a coffee shop in the Conservative Party leader's riding of Carleton.
Leaving a nearby polling station, Zach, 30, who works for a furniture delivery business and declined to give his last name, said Poilievre would cap immigration and focus on crime and reducing the cost of living. 'I'm a homeowner but a lot of my friends are paying over C$2,000 to rent a bachelor apartment,' he said.
If Carney wins, he said, he would conclude that 'the over-60 crowd came in and they cared more about their personal investments'.
2 hours ago
12.30am
Polls close in Atlantic time zone
Polls have just closed in the rest of the Atlantic time zone, an area that includes New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and the peninsula of Nova Scotia.
2 hours ago
12.23am
Carney: Your vote matters
With voting still open in most provinces, Mark Carney has made a last-ditch plea to supporters to get out to a polling station.
'If you're in line when the polls close, stay in line. You can still cast your ballot. Your vote matters,' he wrote on X a few minutes ago.
2 hours ago
12.04am
First polls close
The first polls have just closed in the easternmost Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador.
The overwhelming English-speaking province of about 575,000 residents has seven seats in Canada's House of Commons.
12.01am
April 28
Trump attacks spawn Canadian patriotism
President Trump's attacks on Canada's sovereignty and economy has spurred a wave of patriotism among normally reserved Canadians.
Canadians are boycotting American products and have cancelled trips south of the border en masse.
Liquor stores have removed Jim Beam and other American spirits from their shelves, while boos ring out routinely at ice hockey stadiums when The Star-Spangled Banner, the US national anthem, plays. At cafés, Americanos have been replaced by 'Canadianos'.
Nationalism is not something typically associated with the Canadians, who are known more for apologising than flag-waving.
The Liberals had enjoyed a ten-point advantage only a few weeks ago as anger towards President Trump's trade war intensified.
But according to the final pre-election polling released on Sunday, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives had closed to within three points of Mark Carney's Liberals.
Translated into electoral seats, or riders, the Liberals were projected to win 158 to the Conservatives' 108, with 62 too close to call. The Bloc Québécois was expected to pick up 16 seats, and the New Democrats three.
Nik Nanos, a leading pollster, told the CTV news channel that the all-important provinces of Ontario and British Columbia were in a statistical dead heat.
'If something tilts one way or another, if one party has a better organisation on election day to deliver their vote, it could be a bit of a game changer,' he said.
'We'll have to wait and see what happens when it comes to converting the vote into seats. Structurally the Liberals have an advantage, the question is will that continue in this election.'
3 hours ago
11.00pm
April 28
Poilievre faces 90 protest candidates
Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, is facing more opponents than ever after 90 protest candidates put their name forward to stand in the riding of Carleton, Ottawa.
Most of his opponents are linked to an electoral reform campaign group called the Longest Ballot Committee.
The group is calling for a citizens' assembly to oversee electoral reform to be more representative of the electorate and move away from the two-party system.
The group has pulled similar stunts in the past, recently overloading ballots in two by-elections last year, including in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Montreal, where voting slips ran over a metre long.
Elections Canada, the independent body overseeing the vote, said it was anticipating a slow vote count in Carleton.
3 hours ago
10.56pm
April 28
Who will win Canada's election?
The Liberals, who have been in government since 2015, looked down and out at the end of last year, and the Conservatives were 20 points ahead.
However, they have seen a surge in support since Trudeau's January announcement that he planned to step down amid threats of tariffs.
Last week, the polling firm YouGov published their final MRP which has the Liberals on track to win a majority. They predicted Mark Carney's party winning with a range between 162 and 204 seats.
3 hours ago
10.51pm
April 28
When do the polls close in Canada?
Canada is the second largest country by area in the world, and poll closing times across its six different time zones vary depending on their location.
The first results from the province of Newfoundland and Labrador will start to come in just after polls close at 7pm ET (12am GMT).
The next tranche of results will arrive when polls close in the Atlantic time zone, which includes Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, at 7.30pm ET.
At 9.30pm ET, polls close in the Eastern, Central and Mountain time zones, which include the cities of Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Calgary.
Polls close in the Pacific time zone, which comprises most of British Columbia, at 10pm ET.
The winner of today's election will face a litany of challenges amid Canada's ongoing cost of living crisis.
More than 75 per cent of Canada's exports go to the US. Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada's production into the US could severely damage the Canadian economy.
Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the US in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both economies.
By Will Pavia, Ottawa
Many Canadians casting their vote for Mark Carney in the riding of Ottawa, where he is standing for election, for the first time credited someone else entirely for persuading them to back the leader of the Liberal Party. 'I have been watching this guy for many, many years,' said Errol Cephas, 64, a retired construction worker.
'This guy does not know what the truth is. We had a normal thing going on, but he wants Canada as the 51st state.' He was talking about President Trump. 'I don't think Canada should go the American way,' he said. 'Canada is a more civilised country.' He thought Carney would be better than other candidates at dealing with Trump.
Kai Keskinen, 67, an engineer, said he usually voted for the Conservative Party. 'Carney changed my mind,' he said. 'He's well educated, he should understand the economy and he's not preaching a politics of division.'
Mark Carney at a memorial for victims of the attack
SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP
The Canadian election is taking place on a day of mourning for victims who were killed in a car ramming attack on Saturday in Vancouver.
Eleven people aged five to 65 were killed and dozens more injured when a driver rammed his SUV into crowds on a narrow street at a Filipino street festival for Lapu-Lapu Day.
Kai-Ji Adam Lo, 30, has been charged with eight counts of second-degree murder by prosecutors in British Columbia, and is expected to face further charges.
Flags flew at half mast at government buildings across the country, and voters made time to visit memorials in honour of the victims along with casting their ballot.
The tragedy prompted the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.
4 hours ago
10.16pm
April 28
Poilievre rails against 'lost Liberal decade'
Pierre Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, has tried to keep the focus on domestic concerns and the issues that made Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deeply unpopular towards the end of his decade in power.
The Tory leader has argued throughout the campaign that Mark Carney would continue 'the lost Liberal decade' and that only the Conservatives would act against soaring costs, housing shortages and other non-Trump issues that Canadians rank as priorities.
But Trump's prominence in the race has hurt Poilievre, with many viewing his brash style as similar to the US president's, and criticising his previous warmth towards Trump's White House.
He has since sought to shift away from Trump and the repeated taunts that Canada should join the US as the 51st state.
4 hours ago
10.10pm
April 28
Carney pledges steady ship in economic storm
Mark Carney faces off against local children during a campaign stop in Nova Scotia last week
CARLOS OSORIO/REUTERS
Mark Carney has largely run his campaign on his economic and business credentials.
The prime minister and Liberal leader had a lucrative career as an investment banker before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.
Carney has argued that his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada's response to President Trump.
'We don't need chaos, we need calm. We don't need anger, we need an adult,' Carney said in the campaign's closing days.
Carney is also considered to have moved the party towards the centre ground after succeeding Justin Trudeau. In his first days in office he removed a controversial carbon tax that Trudeau had introduced nearly a decade ago, a policy that had been championed by the Conservatives.
4 hours ago
10.00pm
April 28
Meet the key players in Canada's election
The seat of Canadian power is up for grabs as voters head to the polls today.
The country's voters do not cast their ballots for prime minister directly, but the leader of the party which wins the most seats in parliament traditionally assumes control over the government.
Polls show a tight race between Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, who took over as prime minister from Justin Trudeau, and Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives.
4 hours ago
9.50pm
April 28
Leaders cast ballots in Ottawa
Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, was spotted casting his vote at a polling station in Ottawa, the capital of Canada.
Carney, 60, who was with his wife, Diana Fox Carney, voted in the Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester riding where they live.
The prime minister is not an MP, having only entered formal politics at his election to the Liberal leadership in March.
He is hoping to enter Canada's House of Commons for the first time, after standing in Nepean, another suburban Ottawa riding, considered to be a safe Liberal stronghold.
The Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, 45, cast his vote at an Ottawa polling station alongside his wife, Anaida Poilievre.
4 hours ago
9.40pm
April 28
Record early turnout
A record 7.3 million Canadians cast their ballots over four days of advanced voting before polling day, official figures showed.
Analysts have suggested the high early turnout may be a possible sign of elevated interest in the campaign, stoked by taunting from President Trump.
At the last federal election, in 2021, 5.8 million Canadians voted early.
All ballots will be counted by hand in front of witnesses. The final results will then be validated and shared online.
Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are needed for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed as a minority since 2019.
5 hours ago
9.28pm
April 28
Trump told to 'stay out of our election'
Pierre Poilievre with his wife, Anaida, casting his ballot today. He said that Canada would 'NEVER be the 51st state' of the US
ADRIAN WYLD/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, told President Trump to 'stay out of our election' after he called for Canada to become 'the cherished 51st state of the United States of America'.
'The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,' Poilievre wrote on X. 'Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.'
Trump's prominence in the race is widely viewed to have hurt Poilievre's chances of becoming prime minister, given his previous warmth to the US president.
Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, also chided Trump, saying on X: 'This is Canada and we decide what happens here.'
5 hours ago
9.15pm
April 28
Trump's taunts continue
President Trump continued his taunting of Canadians on election day, suggesting that he was on the ballot and repeating his calls for Canada to become 'the cherished 51st state of the United States of America'.
Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump described the border between the two nations as an 'artificially drawn line from many years ago'.
He also claimed that America 'can no longer subsidise Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past' unless it became a US state.
Canada is a sovereign state and is not subsidised by the US.
5 hours ago
9.00pm
April 28
Late drama makes election a nail-biter
Until February the Conservatives were riding high on a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters had given Pierre Poilievre's party a 99 per cent chance of winning if an election was called at the time, ending Justin Trudeau's almost decade in power with the Liberals.
But the arrival of President Trump into the White House and his aggressive posture towards Canada, threatening its economy and sovereignty, has dramatically changed the tide.
Poilievre's similarities to Trump and a surge in nationalism amid the president's taunts has put the Conservatives on the back foot.
Poilievre's party now trails behind the Liberals.