Celcomdigi Berhad (KLSE:CDB) shareholders have earned a 10% CAGR over the last three years

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5 hours ago

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Celcomdigi Berhad (KLSE:CDB) shareholders have seen the share price rise 20% over three years, well in excess of the market return (8.3%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 7.1%, including dividends.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over the last three years, Celcomdigi Berhad failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 6.8% (annualized).
So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
It may well be that Celcomdigi Berhad revenue growth rate of 27% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Celcomdigi Berhad is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Celcomdigi Berhad's TSR for the last 3 years was 33%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
It's nice to see that Celcomdigi Berhad shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 7.1% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 1.7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Celcomdigi Berhad you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.
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