Which college football coaches are under the most pressure this season?

Fox News

a day ago

We might be in the heart of the college football offseason, but remember, we're continuing to move closer to the start of the season one day at a time. And when the season begins, the pressure will turn on.
For a good handful of coaches, they might already be feeling some pressure entering the 2025 season. So, I wanted to look at 10 coaches around the sport and gauge just where they are on a pressure index that I created before the new season.
I want to stress, this isn't me sharing just how hot I think these coaches' seats are entering the 2025 season. This is just how I feel the current sentiment is surrounding each of these 10 coaches and where in the season they might feel the most pressure. I placed the 10 coaches in five groups: "We're just happy you're here," "We like you, but …," "Trying to be patient," Is this going to work?" and "It's time."
So, let's take a look at my pressure index!
This is different from the rest of the coaches on this list. I don't think the pressure index is on Belichick. Let's be honest, Belichick isn't going to feel a lot of pressure at UNC. If this doesn't go his way, he's not going to lose a lot of sleep over this.
Rather, the pressure is on the fan base. You can tell that the fan base is invested in this in a way that's similar to Colorado and Deion Sanders. They hired possibly the best coach in NFL history, so maybe they're just happy he's in Chapel Hill.
That's why the pressure doesn't ratchet up in UNC's schedule. It ratchets in the New York Giants' schedule, or another NFL team that could be a potential suitor for Belichick. Belichick can certainly pay the $1 million to get out of his contract, and if he has the opportunity to coach the Giants (who he has a history with) or another NFL team, he could opt to go that route.
So, I think the pressure point date here is Dec. 1, when the Giants take on the New England Patriots right before their bye week. If New York is 2-11 entering that game and loses, do you think Brian Daboll is getting fired right after? I think he could. That's also right when the college football regular season ends. The Giants wouldn't be able to name their next head coach right after, but Belichick could have an inkling on whether he could become their next head coach around that date.
I initially resisted listing Heupel on the index list. However, I didn't love the Nico Iamaleava saga. So, where do we sit, Tennessee fans? The Volunteers have had a couple of really good years with Heupel, but there have also been some marquee failures. It doesn't help that they lost their quarterback, and there's more to the story than what the Tennessee faithful would let you believe. They threw Iamaleava under the bus, essentially. I'm not saying that Iamaleava wasn't blameless in that ordeal, but now Tennessee doesn't have a clear answer at quarterback.
Tennessee fans seem to be happy with how the Heupel era has started. Tennessee reached the CFP for the first time last year before losing in the game at Ohio State.
The schedule is pretty difficult for Tennessee this season, though. I think the pressure point for Tennessee is the Oklahoma game on Nov. 1. There are a couple of games prior to the Oklahoma matchup that I thought might have served as the pressure point for Tennessee (at Alabama, at Kentucky), but everything should come to fruition in that Oklahoma game. I think Tennessee will be 5-1 through its first six games, losing to Georgia in the first half of its regular-season slate before potentially losing to Alabama to start the second half of its schedule. So, I think Tennessee will be 6-2 entering that Oklahoma game and the Sooners will look to potentially dethrone the Volunteers from one of the seats in the upper-echelon of the SEC.
After going 13-1 in 2023, Florida State fell on its face and went 2-10 in 2024, becoming the first preseason top 10 team to lose 10 games. He got a massive contract extension between those seasons, so I don't think Florida State is ready to move off Norvell. However, that's a wild dropoff.
That's why I think the game against Miami (Fla.) on Oct. 4 is a really big one for Florida State. FSU fans want to make sure that last season wasn't a one-year anomaly, where the Seminoles got blown out by the Canes. That game also helps determine the hierarchy of the programs in the state of Florida. Miami has some juice right now, and Florida State needs to prove it can play at that level again.
Napier had the hottest seat in the country at one point last season before coaching Florida to a winning record down the stretch. Bringing him back was the right move by the school, with quarterback DJ Lagway blossoming as the Gators won their last four games.
The expectations are much higher this year, though. Florida's schedule is just as tough as last year's, playing an incredibly tough four-game stretch early in the year. I think it needs to win at least two of the games in the stretch that features LSU (Sept. 13), Miami (Fla.) (Sept. 20), Texas (Oct. 4) and Texas A&M (Oct. 11). Just like Florida State, that game against Miami is one that Florida particularly has to win in order to establish itself in the state hierarchy. Also, if the Gators don't beat Miami, I'm not sure where they can pick up the other two wins.
Let's face it, Year 1 in Tuscaloosa was a little bit underwhelming for DeBoer. Alabama went 9-4, falling short of 10 wins for the first time since 2007 - which was Nick Saban's first year there. The fans aren't going to sit around and wait as you put up eight or nine-win seasons. So, they're trying to be patient.
DeBoer has been great everywhere else he's been as a head coach. Of course, he made the national championship game with Washington right before he left for Alabama. But he's now at a place where you're expected to win big and at the sport's highest level. You can't miss the College Football Playoff, especially as we continue to expand the field.
I think it could get a little uncomfortable for DeBoer this season. When you look at the schedule, I actually don't think the Georgia game is the pressure game for DeBoer this season. That's always been a coin-flip game. But if Alabama loses to Tennessee in October, I think that's when the fan base's patience with DeBoer starts to wear thin. Home losses aren't good, but that's the first game of a tough second half to the schedule (South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn). If Alabama already lost to Georgia and Tennessee, it would likely have to run the table to make the CFP.
Fickell has gone .500 in his first two seasons in Madison, with last season being a bit disappointing. He received an unusual one-year extension, which was part of the program's annual review process.
Wisconsin might have the toughest schedule in the country, which makes the building process really difficult. It has Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon on its slate this year. If Wisconsin loses those games, I don't think it'll be huge fodder for the fan base. I think the fan base is trying to be patient with Fickell, but he'll be facing pressure when Wisconsin hosts Iowa on Oct. 11. That's a great measuring stick game for the Badgers because those two programs come from the same place. Both programs were previously able to define their success based on how they performed in the Big Ten West. They constantly represented the Big Ten West in the conference title game and got to play in major bowl games because they were in the easier division.
Now, Wisconsin and Iowa need to prove to their fan bases that they can rise above and play on equal footing with the other powerhouses in the Big Ten. This is another one of those hierarchy games. If Wisconsin loses to Iowa at home, you look at that schedule and think it might go 3-9. If Wisconsin wins, 8-4 seems possible and the losses to Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon would be much easier pills to swallow.
We saw promise in Riley's first year in SoCal, when the Trojans nearly made the CFP in 2022. But the last two years have been underwhelming, going 15-11. I will say, they had a good close to the season last year and there are things to get excited about. They won three of their last four games, including a bowl win over Texas A&M.
We all felt Riley was a home run hire when USC brought him in. He's still an elite coach, but he's got to turn it around.
When you look at USC's schedule, the pressure moment for Riley and his squad this year might come as early as Sept. 27 at Illinois. That game should tell us everything we'll need to know about what USC can be at the top end and what it could be at the bottom end. I think both teams should be 4-0 when they meet that week, but that game marks the start of a tough four-game stretch for USC (Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska). If USC loses to Illinois, I don't have a lot of faith that it will win those other three games and Riley can't have another 7-5 season. If USC wins that game, it could be a momentum changer for the program in not just its season, but also in recruiting.
After Riley left for USC, Oklahoma's recovery to get Venables was viewed as a home run. Similar to Riley, he's had one great year and two underwhelming ones. Oklahoma beat Texas en route to winning 10 games in 2023 and climbed into the top five at one point that year.
Oklahoma has taken a step back since then. Dillon Gabriel left in the transfer portal following that season and Oklahoma's been 10-10 since that win against Texas. But they made some investments in the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in a really good player in Washington State quarterback John Mateer and Cal running back Jadyn Ott. The Sooners also brought in a new offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, from Washington State. Venables will call plays for Oklahoma's defense, which is a really good thing.
The pressure point for Venables is early in the season, before conference play gets going. Oklahoma hosts Michigan in Week 2. That's a giant moment for Venables. If Oklahoma takes care of business in that game, the SEC schedule doesn't look as daunting. But if Oklahoma loses, it has uphill battle with its SEC slate with upcoming games against Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU. If the Sooners lose to Michigan, I sense they will go 2-4 at best in those games, which means another 7-5 season in Norman.
Everyone around that program knows it's time. This program has built itself on such solid footing over the last few years, reaching the CFP semifinal and playing for a Big Ten title last year. Yet, Penn State still doesn't have that "big" win against a team that's on equal footing or superior to it.
Now, Penn State and Franklin have done something that's incredibly difficult to do: They don't lose to teams they should beat. So, they're incredibly consistent. That's a credit to Franklin, but it's time to win a big one.
Franklin will feel the pressure when Penn State hosts Oregon on Sept. 27. It's a White Out Game, too, which is one of the best environments in college football. Oregon is bringing in a new quarterback and doesn't have a veteran under center like it's had the last few years. As good as Oregon has been, the talent in this game is equal, especially with all the players Penn State is returning.
If Penn State loses that game, all anyone will talk about is that James Franklin can't win these games. We'll start to wonder "Oh no, is this going to work?" Luckily for Penn State, it will have a chance to redeem itself with a game against Ohio State at The Shoe in November. Penn State could also make the Big Ten Championship Game and CFP again.
It's already Year 4 for Kelly in Baton Rouge. Remember when he debuted that accent? Or that video of him dancing with a recruit?
Anyway, Kelly had two 10-win seasons to go with a nine-win year during his time at LSU. That sounds good on paper, but the expectations are higher for that program. Every LSU coach this century has won a national title. That's why Kelly went to LSU, not to build South Bend South.
The pressure point for Kelly and LSU is right away: Week 1 at Clemson. That's the moment for Kelly. He can't lose that game, and I actually think Clemson is a little better than LSU. So, now we're expecting him to beat a slightly superior team on the road against a title-winning coach, along with an accomplished quarterback in Cade Klubnik.
After Week 1, LSU still has games against Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Alabama and Oklahoma. So, if LSU loses at Clemson, winning each of those games becomes more paramount for the Tigers if they're looking to make the CFP. They'd have to go 6-2, at minimum, in those games to finish 9-3. If LSU wins that game, it could have a victory over the eventual ACC champion on the road for its résumé. That could end up being massive down the line.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.
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