Stocks fall and oil prices hit three year high after Israel strikes Iran

Irish Times

19 hours ago

Stocks fell along with equity-index futures and investors rushed to the safety of haven assets after Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program sites in a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil jumped 9 per cent, the biggest move in more than three years.
Contracts for the S&P 500 index retreated 1.6 per cent, and a gauge of Asian stocks dropped 1.1 per cent. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield falling one basis point to 4.34 per cent. Gold rose and cryptocurrencies tumbled.
A gauge of the dollar rose 0.4 per cent after initially falling, buoyed by the shift to safer currencies even amid recent doubts about the reliability of dollar. The currency had hit a three-year low on Thursday.
The airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program and ballistic-missile sites renewed a standoff between the two adversaries that risks spiralling into a wider conflict.
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While the market reaction was strongest in crude oil, moves in other pockets of the market suggested that investors are watching how long the tensions will last and whether the situation escalates.
'We are seeing classical risk-off moves,' said Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management.
'What we are watching now for is the speed and scale of the response from Tehran. That will shape the duration of the current moves. Quite often these moves fade after the initial shocks.'
Israel said the operation will continue for 'as many days' as it takes to remove the threat and Iran vowed to respond 'harshly.'
The move came after repeated warnings by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu about striking Iran and crippling its nuclear program. Iran had previously said it would inaugurate a new uranium-enrichment facility in response to censure by the UN atomic watchdog over its nuclear program.
The oil futures curve strengthened on concerns that Israel's latest strike on Iran could have severe and long-lasting repercussions.
The most obvious market impact was in oil as Iran is a major exporter of crude to countries such as China and India. Moves in other sectors were more measured as investors braced themselves for the possibility of a steeper selloff.
'This is very serious,' said US-based Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.
'It's surprising the market isn't down more. Do I expect things to get lower in the coming hours? Heck yeah I expect it to be lower by the time I wake up but it'll also depend who's talking and what's happening.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the US is not involved in the air strikes and that Israel took unilateral action against Iran.
The attack is coming at a time when global financial markets had recovered from a slump in April caused by Trump's tariffs. An index of global stocks touched a record Thursday, gaining more than 20 per cent from a low hit in April.
The attack is 'poised to echo through global markets — not just as a geopolitical flashpoint, but more as a stark wake-up call,' said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne.
'Investors now have to face the mounting threat of multi-front tensions, where potential new hot wars and intensifying trade wars collide, reshaping risk sentiment in real time.'
Separately, officials at the Bank of Japan see prices rising a little stronger than they expected earlier in the year, a factor that may open the door to discussions over whether to raise interest rates if global trade tensions ease, according to people familiar with the matter.
The officials expect the central bank's benchmark interest rate to be left at 0.5 per cent at the end of a two-day gathering next week as they need to monitor developments in tariff talks globally and their economic implications, the people said. – Bloomberg