‘High risk' severe weather, tornado outbreak targets 30 states through Sunday
The same storm, capable of producing clouds of dust and fast-moving wildfires in the southern Plains, blizzard conditions for the northern Plains and flash flooding from the Tennessee Valley to the Eastern Seaboard, will bring a major multiple-day outbreak of severe weather that includes multiple strong tornadoes from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast, Great Lakes and Atlantic coast.
Since the middle of the week, meteorologists at AccuWeather have designated a portion of the threats for Friday and Saturday as "high risk," which means they are expecting widespread severe weather. The severe weather threat, including multiple strong tornadoes, will extend well beyond the daylight hours, tremendously adding to the danger.
The severe thunderstorm threat alone will stretch across approximately 1 million square miles and include 30 states as it progresses eastward from Friday to Sunday. There will be the risk of power outages and major travel disruptions, and property owners and road crews should be prepared for downed trees and flash flooding.
Friday
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather with tornadoes will ramp up on Friday afternoon over the Mississippi Valley states and may quickly escalate into a very dangerous and life-threatening situation in portions of Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas before expanding into portions of Nebraska and Minnesota and unzipping southward to portions of northeastern Texas and Louisiana.
The primary threat will be powerful wind gusts as the thunderstorms organize into one or more solid lines. The damaging winds, with gusts ranging from 75-85 mph and AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gusts near 100 mph, will move east-northeastward and may cover hundreds of miles. Such conditions in the past have been designated as derechos.
Ahead of the main line of storms, some individual discrete thunderstorms, called supercells, may develop. These have the potential to produce multiple tornadoes.
Within the solid line of thunderstorms, there may also be embedded tornadoes that can be concealed by heavy rain and low clouds.
From late Friday afternoon through much of Friday night, the greatest risk of tornadoes will extend from central portions of Missouri and Arkansas to southern Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
However, an isolated tornado can occur as far to the north as parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin to as far south as the northwestern Gulf coast into Friday night.
Saturday
AccuWeather meteorologists believe that severe weather-and especially the tornado threat-will reach its peak during the multiple-day outbreak from Saturday afternoon to Saturday night. In some areas, such as portions of the Tennessee, Cumberland and Ohio River valleys, the heightened severe weather threat will be accompanied by an elevated risk of flash flooding.
As the severe storms from Friday continue to press eastward on Saturday, any lull may be short-lived and limited to parts of the morning and midday hours. The risk of severe thunderstorms will extend from southern Ontario to the central Gulf coast.
Just as with Friday, there will be the potential for a tornado to occur just about anywhere in this zone. However, AccuWeather believes the greatest risk for tornadoes will focus from just south of Interstate 40 in Tennessee to near Interstate 10 in southeastern Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
Multiple tornadoes are likely on Saturday in this area, some of which may be strong and on the ground for more than just a couple of minutes. Like Friday, the threat will carry on well after dark, and some of the tornadoes may be concealed by heavy rain and low clouds, which will add to the danger.
AccuWeather meteorologists strongly urge residents and visitors in the severe weather threat zones from Friday to Saturday to monitor weather bulletins closely and have an audible means to get bulletins when traveling or going to sleep at night.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
Sunday
While the intensity of the severe weather and tornado risk may be past its peak by Sunday, there will still be a risk of severe weather that extends from northern Florida to New York state.
Strong wind gusts and torrential downpours will be the greatest threats from the storms on Sunday as they progress from the I-81 and I-85 corridors to I-95.
The combination of both can lead to dangerous conditions on the highways and trigger ground stops and flight cancellations at the major airport hubs from Charlotte to Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York City.
Even though widespread severe weather may not occur in northern New York and New England later Sunday to Sunday night, there is likely to be heavy rain and gusty winds that can lead to travel delays, flash flooding, power outages and some tree damage.
The severe weather threat will come to an end as a strong cold front associated with the storm pushes off the Atlantic coast later Sunday night to early Monday. Some heavy, gusty thunderstorms may still occur on the tail end of the front in South Florida and the Keys on Monday.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
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