A guide to the NSW seats to watch this federal election
There are 46 federal seats in NSW and about a third of them are marginal — making it a state to watch this election.
From a tussle over historically blue-ribbon bastions to traditionally Labor-voting seats balanced on a knife edge, they're some of the electorates with the thinnest margins in the country.
These are the seats to keep an eye on as results pour in over the coming days.
Bennelong
The former seat of Liberal prime minister John Howard, Bennelong in Sydney's inner lower north shore, is one of the tightest races in the country.
A boundary revision, where the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) redraws the map because of changes in population, has shaved the margin to a wafer-thin 0.04 per cent and turned the seat notionally Liberal.
Incumbent Labor MP Jerome Laxale faces a challenge from Liberal candidate Scott Yung.
Gilmore
Labor's most marginal seat is Gilmore on the NSW South Coast.
The 2022 election saw Fiona Phillips defeat former Liberal state minister Andrew Constance, who is again standing as the Liberal candidate, by just 373 votes.
Gilmore was Labor's only true gain at the 2019 election, and both major parties have put up a tough fight for the seat.
Bradfield
Independent Nicolette Boele, a former finance executive, is running against new Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian after incumbent Liberal MP Paul Fletcher decided to retire.
Ms Boele, a Climate 200-backed candidate who secured a strong swing against Mr Fletcher in 2022 pushing the once-safe seat into marginal territory, will again try to turn the traditionally Liberal seat on Sydney's north shore independent.
Its margin has been reduced even further by a boundary redraw triggered by the abolition of neighbouring electorate North Sydney.
Robertson
The Central Coast
Gordon Reid won the seat for Labor at the last election but is being challenged by Liberal Lucy Wicks, who represented the electorate from 2013 until 2022.
A very minor boundary adjustment with neighbouring Dobell was enough to tick the Labor margin down a decimal point from 2.3 per cent.
Werriwa
Western Sydney has been a focus of this campaign, with 10 out of 14 seats held by Labor.
The major party holds three of the four marginal seats in the region, including Werriwa, which takes in Badgerys Creek, Austral and Casula.
Support for Labor has been slipping in this heartland electorate for some time – and incumbent Labor MP Anne Stanley is facing a challenge from Liberal candidate Sam Kayal.
In a sign of how keen the Liberals are to claim a win here, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Coalition luminaries held their campaign launch in the seat.
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