
Will there be load shedding this winter? Energy Minister gives his verdict…
On Wednesday, Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said South Africans could be in for a winter without load-shedding.
This is thanks to improved generation capacity and the return of key power units.
Speaking at the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group meeting in Cape Town, Ramokgopa expressed cautious optimism about a blackout-free winter.
Ramokgopa emphasised that power plant performance is expected to match — if not exceed — last year's levels.
He noted that there is 'no reason' for performance to decline, despite some ongoing challenges.
Without giving too much away, he said a more detailed winter outlook will be presented on 5 May.
'When we went into winter last year, we didn't have Kusile Unit 6, so we didn't have that 800MW,' Ramokgopa told EWN .
'The second thing is that we didn't have Medupi 4. We will have Medupi 4 by the end of May, which has been out for about four years, so that's another 800MW.'
'We are also going to have the benefits of both Koeberg units.'
To that end, Koeberg unit number 1 is expected to come back online in July.
Altogether, the country is projected to have about 2 500MW more electricity during peak winter demand than it did last year.
South Africans have a right to be skeptical however, after Eskom announced Stage 2 load shedding last Thursday.
This marked the first time in over 30 days that the power utility enforced rolling blackouts.
In a statement, Eskom attributed the load shedding to the loss of generation units and higher-than-usual demand.
By Friday morning, the power utility declared that there had been a recovery of generation units, and suspended load shedding.
Nonetheless, with winter looming, it didn't inspire confidence about energy availibility over the coming months.
While acknowledging that the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) remained below ideal levels in April, Ramokgopa attributed the recent issues to isolated post-maintenance failures.
'That was post-outage failure,' the Minister added.
'When you take the unit out on planned maintenance, when it comes back, it can still present a significant number of challenges. So that's something the team is addressing.'
'I really don't foresee that we are going to perform below what we did last year.'
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1.
Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Daily Maverick
an hour ago
- Daily Maverick
The strategic reforms that could transform South Africa's economy
The key is to break the strangleholds that Eskom and Transnet have on our electricity, ports and railways. Introducing real competition into electricity generation and the operation of ports and railways is the key to unlocking real growth in South Africa's stagnant economy. So said Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen at a seminar organised by the In Transformation Initiative last week, where Jakkie Cilliers, head of the African Futures unit at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), presented the unit's latest report, co-written with Alize le Roux, which forecasts SA's growth trajectory to 2043. The seminar pondered why, despite the creation of a government of national unity (GNU) last June and the virtual end of load shedding, the South African economy only grew by a miserly 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Cilliers said South Africa was caught in a 'classic upper middle income growth trap'. From 1990 until 2025, South Africa's economy had grown by an average of 2.3% a year, and on its current path, without significant reforms, he forecast it would grow at an average 2.4% annually from now until 2043. That would expand GDP from about $402-billion in 2025 to about $628-billion in 2043, in constant 2017 US dollars. This 'slow but steady growth' would not be enough to dent poverty. It would barely keep pace with the population, which the unit forecast would expand from about 65.5 million in 2025 to about 77 million in 2043. Cilliers said annual GDP per capita would therefore rise from $12,600 in 2025 to about $14,700 in 2043 — with South Africa falling behind the rest of the world (except Africa) where he forecast average annual GDP per capita would climb from $20,300 in 2025 to $28,500 in 2043. He noted that on its current development trajectory it would take South Africa until 2037 to return to the peak GDP per capita of $13,800 that it reached in 2013. South Africa had been stagnating for years, with steady deindustrialisation, weak investment, and a growing dependence on social grants undermining growth, particularly during the Jacob Zuma presidency, Cilliers said. Cilliers noted that 740,000 South Africans entered the labour market every year, and because of slow growth and a very capital-intensive economy the number of unemployed people increased annually. In 2023, the International Labor Organization (ILO) found that South Africa had the highest unemployment rate globally after only Eswatini. Because being part of the informal sector is considered 'work' by the organisation, South Africa's relatively small informal sector contributed to this high percentage. In South Africa, only about 18% of the labour force is employed in the informal sector. Cilliers noted that about 62% of South Africans were now living below the World Bank's poverty datum line for upper middle income countries, of $6.85 per person a day. On South Africa's current economic path, that percentage would decline 'modestly' to 58% in 2043, though the absolute number of people living below that poverty datum line would increase, from some 40.9 million in 2025 to 44.4 million in 2043 (because the overall population would rise). Cilliers said South Africa should now be reaping a 'demographic dividend' because its ratio of working age population – aged 15 to 64 — to its dependent population (children and elderly) had now reached 2.1. In the African Futures calculations, the demographic dividend should kick in when the ratio of working people to dependents reached 1.7. he said, Economic growth stunted by poor human capital But South Africa was not earning this dividend largely because economic growth was being stunted by poor human capital, mainly an unhealthy population, many of whom were still afflicted by HIV/Aids and tuberculosis and low-quality education. The question, he said, was why South Africa did so poorly on social capital, education and health, given the very high levels of expenditure on those services. 'And the only answer that you can come up with is government inefficiency, the poor use of existing funds. And the question is, how do we escape the middle-income trap?' Cilliers asked. He said the African Futures team had modelled the effects of reforms in eight different sectors on South Africa's economic development. These were demographics and health; agriculture; education; manufacturing; infrastructure and 'leapfrogging' (i.e. bypassing older technologies); free trade; financial flows; and governance. They found that the largest return was from increased manufacturing, followed by freer trade and then better governance. So, for instance, all eight sectors combined would increase GDP per capita in 2043 by about 33%, from the $ 14,750 on the current path to $19,650. Of this, increased manufacturing would contribute about $930; freer trade (with the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement) would contribute about $900; and better governance about $800. The combined impact of those eight reforms would decrease the percentage of South Africans living below the $6.85 a day poverty rate to 50% by 2043, down from 62% in 2023. This would represent 6.1 million fewer poor people than if the economy remained on its current path, though still leaving South Africa with a large poverty burden, Cilliers said. The African Futures team had compiled a laundry list of recommendations, starting with the need to strengthen governance and accountability through evidence-based policies, curtailing corruption and increasing accountability and inclusivity. Deputy Finance Minister Sarupen, of the DA, said much of Cilliers' analysis resonated with assessments by the Treasury's own economic policy team and the work being done by the government's Operation Vulindlela and by various parties in the GNU. He agreed that merely 60% growth in the size of the economy over the next two decades 'will not get us out of the trap that we're in' and that South Africa was in danger of falling from upper middle to lower middle income status. Structural constraints The low growth was driven by structural constraints, weak productivity, low investment in capital, higher inequality and an underperforming formal labour market. The Treasury was 'acutely aware of this'. But he said the government had to prioritise its reforms to tackle the problem because of the many competing demands of a massive amount of social ills and a very strong active civil society. He noted that South Africa had a system of fairly autonomous government ministries that made it harder to pursue coherent policies. Cilliers had identified manufacturing and freer trade as South Africa's best paths forward. Sarupen noted that cheap reliable energy with stability of pricing and supply underpinned manufacturing and industrialisation . 'And one of the drivers of our de-industrialisation has been excessive pricing and inefficiency of supply that really hurts manufacturing in South Africa,' he said. He noted that while prices in the rest of the economy had risen 196% since 2009, Eskom's prices had increased by 403%. So Eskom was driving inflation and deterring investment. Sarupen added that part of the reason GDP growth had been so low over the past year, despite an end to load shedding, was because companies had sunk so much money into load-shedding-proof themselves over the past few years that they had not spent enough on actual business expansion and employment. Sarupen also noted that free trade — another key reform advocated by Cilliers — 'requires you to be able to actually move goods and services cheaply and easily around, so the logistics reforms need a lot of depth and need to maximise competition. 'And so in the reform process that we're undergoing we need to be careful to not just bring the private sector into Transnet's monopoly structure. But rather how do we create competition, across multiple ports for example.' Likewise, South Africa had to maximise competition in railway freight lines. He agreed with Cilliers that crime had to be tackled much better as it was discouraging investment as well as acting as a deterrent to economic activity inside South Africa because, for example, citizens were fearful of using public transport to go to work. Rule of law He said the rule of law was the foundation of all other economic reforms, followed by macroeconomic stability, and then better education and health, and only after that global competitiveness and industrial masterplans. Sarupen did note though that South Africa's foundation of macroeconomic stability was 'probably one of our saving graces'. He also said that the government had to reduce debt. He noted that about 90% of South Africa's debt was denominated in rands, and about 75% of that was purchased by domestic markets. Rand debt was generally better than debt in foreign currency but the scale of government borrowing, about R300 to R400-billion a year, was crowding out the amount of capital that could be invested in business ventures and therefore growth. He added that the relatively high premium of about 11% on a 10-year South African Government Bond was discouraging businesses from investing in riskier ventures. He noted that many of the investments in this year's controversial national Budget were important — such as in public transport. He said, for example, that while a lower income worker in Vietnam earned a similar wage to a lower income worker in South Africa, the Vietnamese worker spent about 10% of his or her income on transport, the South African workers spent around 50%. 'People are going to work to earn money to be able to go to work,' he said. And this was diverting money away from workers buying goods and services, which was essential for economic growth. DM


The South African
an hour ago
- The South African
Large multinational company shuts factory in South Africa
It's sad news for the 78-year old Goodyear factory in South Africa. Last week it was announced that the large multinational will be close its Kariega plant in Nelson Mandela Bay. Without Goodyear, there will only be three international companies with a factory in South Africa: Continental, Sumitomo (Dunlop) and Bridgestone. The trading environment is becoming increasingly difficult for international tyre companies with manufacturing in South Africa. This is primarily due to high energy costs and cheap, sub-par Chinese imports being dumped in the country. Back in 2020, Bridgestone came close to shutting its Brits factory in South Africa. Likewise, Sumitomo was forced into restructuring at its Ladysmith plant in KwaZulu-Natal earlier this year, in February. Nevertheless, the local tyre manufacturers that remain are all part of larger global organisations that feed the rest of Africa. As such, they employ around 5 000 workers collectively, and are responsible for more than 7-million tyres annually, says the South African Tyre Manufacturing Conference (SATMCC). Sadly, the Goodyear factory in South Africa has been in operation since 1947. It employs in the region of 900 workers. The firm announced the closure in a general statement last week, on Thursday 5 June 2025. It said Goodyear South Africa will transform to a 'go-to-market' to optimise its footprint and portfolio, reports TopAuto. Cheap Chinese imports are being challenged by the competition commission. Image: File 'As part of that transformation, Goodyear South Africa is launching a restructuring process in accordance with the provisions of the Labour Relations Act. To address the closure of the factory in South Africa, it will realign sales, administration and general management functions. As such, Goodyear South Africa will continue to maintain sales, distribution and retail presence in South Africa through Hi-Q,' confirms the statement. Goodyear says closing the factory in South Africa is in no way a reflection of the efforts and years of dedication. Therefore, it says it is committed to acting fairly and providing affected employees with appropriate support. As such, the reorganisation process will be overseen by the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation, and Arbitration (CCMA). There are also job loss mitigation initiatives in place with the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber to assist those who have been made redundant. Experts says unreliable electricity supply, above-inflation cost increases and cheap Chinese imports have all contributed to tough trading conditions for local tyre manufacturers over the last five years. It's a shame to see hard-working South Africans losing jobs … Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1. Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.

IOL News
an hour ago
- IOL News
The looming gas crisis that could have serious economic consequences for South Africa
The Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy has emphasised the urgent need for coordinated action to address South Africa's looming 'gas cliff" with Saol sharing its plans to use methane-rich gas as a temporary solution until LNG becomes available. Image: Supplied The Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy has emphasised the urgent need for coordinated action to address South Africa's looming 'gas cliff' and secure the country's energy future. This comes after the committee was briefed by key industry players and government entities on the expected sharp decline in natural gas supplies from Mozambique's Pande and Temane fields by 2028, which currently provide a significant portion of South Africa's gas needs. IOL previously reported that this gas supply supports more than 13,000 direct jobs and reportedly contributes about 5% to the national GDP and that its continued decline threatens around 70,000 jobs. The committee emphasised the need for 'urgent and coordinated action to mitigate the challenge of the impending 'gas cliff' that faces South Africa.' It also noted that 'time is of the essence' with less than six years to implement necessary measures before the gas cliff materialises. "The looming supply shortage poses serious risks to the country's energy security, industrial output, and broader economic competitiveness," Committee Chairperson Nonkosi Mvana said. Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also previously warned that the country was heading toward a 'gas cliff,' and failure to act could trigger serious economic consequences. 'The gas cliff is not a distant event. It is imminent. But it is not inevitable. We have the analytical tools, institutional memory and public-private platforms to act," Ramokgopa said Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading The Central Energy Fund (CEF) also outlined its plans to secure long-term buyers for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. They explained how they aim to fund these expensive projects without increasing the national debt. SASOL shared its plans to use methane-rich gas as a temporary solution until LNG becomes available. Meanwhile, the Industrial Gas Users Association stressed the urgency of the situation, saying there is only a six to nine-month window to take necessary actions to avoid the 'gas cliff. The organisation "proposed the creation of a gas aggregator model and public-private partnership structures to facilitate infrastructure development and unlock private sector investment". IOL Business Get your news on the go, click here to join the IOL News WhatsApp channel