A troubling reminder of Japan's vulnerability to natural disasters

Japan Times

2 days ago

A massive earthquake off Russia's far eastern coast Wednesday prompted tsunami warnings across the entire Pacific Ocean. While the temblor triggered waves of 3 to 4 meters in its immediate proximity, there were no reports of substantive damage in affected areas.
Past tragedies have forced governments throughout the region to better prepare for such disasters. While this incident appears to have been handled well, experts warn that there is no room for complacency. Many countries, including Japan, are not ready for another big natural disaster and the crises it will create.
The epicenter of the earthquake, which had an estimated magnitude of 8.7 or 8.8, was 150 kilometers east of the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, some 20.7 km below the surface of the earth. It was preceded by earlier quakes of magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 and afterward there has been a series of aftershocks that included a 6.9-magnitude quake. This temblor is the world's strongest since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and one of the 10 strongest ever recorded.
Earthquakes are frequent there. The Pacific and North American tectonic plates brush against each other at that location. That activity has produced multiple major earthquakes of magnitude 8.3 or higher since 1990. This was the strongest since 1952, when a 9.0 magnitude temblor hit the same area. It produced a tsunami that crossed the Pacific, and powerful aftershocks that reached magnitude 6.9.
Fortunately, while some people were reported injured by the quake, there are as yet (at the time of this writing) no reports of deaths. A tsunami hit the Russian coast, forcing the evacuation of several thousand people.
Wednesday's quake triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific, with authorities anticipating waves exceeding 3 meters as far as Ecuador and the West Coast of the U.S. Waves of 1.5 meters hit parts of Hawaii, but there are no reports of damage, even though beaches and low-lying areas were evacuated and government offices shut down.
Smaller waves, between 1 and 3 meters, were possible along coasts of Chile, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, Hawaii, Japan and other Pacific islands. Still smaller waves were possible elsewhere, including Australia, Colombia, Mexico, New Zealand, Tonga and Taiwan.
In Japan, authorities said it hit 2 on Japan's seven-point shindo earthquake intensity scale in several places in Hokkaido. More alarming were the tsunami alerts. A warning forecasting waves up to 3 meters high was issued for the Pacific coasts of Hokkaido and Honshu, as well as advisories projecting waves of up to 1 meter for Shikoku, Kyushu and Okinawa.
Waves of up to 1.3 meters were reported in Iwate, some up to 60 cm high were observed in Hokkaido and Kuji in Iwate Prefecture and waves from 10 cm to 50 cm high were recorded along the Pacific coast from Hokkaido to Miyazaki. The Japanese government set up a task force in the Prime Minister's Office to monitor developments.
Again, thankfully, there have been no reports of deaths or damage, although some towns were evacuated, highways were blocked, dozens of train operations were stopped and Sendai Airport temporarily closed. There were no reports of malfunctions or abnormalities at nuclear power plants in Japan.
Dangers have not yet passed, however, and coastal residents need to remain vigilant and continue to monitor information from authorities, including the Meteorological Agency.
The consequences have been minimal for a quake this size. In December 2004, a 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the Indonesian coast set off a tsunami that killed more than 200,000 people in nearly a dozen countries. Experts credit improved warning systems created in the aftermath of that disaster for helping reduce the human casualties.
There is no room for complacency, however. Earthquakes are a far too common experience in Japan, as are the tsunamis they create. Attention has for some time focused on the possibility of a major temblor on the Nankai Trough. The fault line, which runs for about 900 km along Japan's Pacific coast, has produced major earthquakes — magnitude 8 or greater — every 100 to 150 years. The Japanese government forecast earlier this year an 80% chance that such a quake will occur within the next 30 years, which could cause nearly 300,000 deaths and economic losses exceeding ¥270 trillion.
Yet despite that risk and the experience of major earthquakes in Kobe in 1995, Tohoku in 2011 and the Noto Peninsula in January 2024, Japan is still struggling to prepare. Acknowledging that localities don't have the capacity to deal with such emergencies of any real magnitude, the government plans to set up a disaster management agency in fiscal 2026 to improve its response.
There is considerable work to be done. Multiple studies and surveys of municipalities show that they are not prepared for a big incident. Nearly 30% reported in a Nikkei survey earlier this year that they have not drawn up continuity plans. Some of those that have done so plan to relocate to tsunami-prone areas, meaning that they are not likely to work in a crisis.
That survey also revealed that some 60% of Japanese localities in the area where that earthquake is expected to hit said that they lack one or more of the critical supplies that would be needed for the 12.3 million people that could be displaced. According to Cabinet Office data, 82 of 130 local authorities in the danger zone completely lack at least one of eight critical items needed to accommodate evacuees, a list that includes baby food and toilet paper.
Less than a quarter of the Nikkei respondents said they had enough food to last three days, which is the expected length of time it will take for relief supplies to reach disaster areas. Less than one-third have enough toilets to meet international standards. More than 60% lack blankets. Nearly 40% of the communities surveyed reported that they could not accommodate the projected maximum number of evacuees.
Many coastal areas either lack seawalls or the ones they have are designed to protect against smaller tsunamis, not the big waves expected to be produced by a major quake.
Meanwhile, the massive influx of foreign tourists to Japan — an estimated 3.3 million in June and 21.5 million for the first half of the year — creates new risks and vulnerabilities. While local governments are required to have a disaster management plan, 16 of Tokyo's 23 wards do not have plans to deal with international visitors. Even getting rudimentary information out is a challenge.
There is another dimension to this problem. There are many military bases in this region and they too are vulnerable to the same threats. The Self-Defense Forces, like all military forces, must prepare for disasters as their civilian counterparts do. This means strengthening ports and harbors, preparing bases for flooding and isolation along with other details of contingency plans.
This week's incident underscored the vulnerability of military nuclear facilities. Russia's Rybachiy submarine base is located near the epicenter of the quake. Submarines are built for underwater shocks but their command and control infrastructure, along with storage and maintenance facilities on shore, are susceptible.
Japan learned over a decade ago that systems failure at nuclear facilities poses unacceptable national security risks. A similar crisis at a military base could result in radiation leaks, the loss of materials or weapons or even accidental missile launches. Since military nuclear assets are among the closest guarded national secrets, it is hard to know how prepared Russia, or any country, is in such a situation. That is another reason to better prepare for the next, inevitable, natural disaster.
The Japan Times Editorial Board