South Alabama at Arkansas State odds, picks and predictions
South Alabama picked up its fourth win in the last 5 games Saturday, edging the Texas State Bobcats 70-65 in OT. Saturday marked South Alabama's third OT win during the 5-game stretch, though it failed to cover as a 7-point home favorite while the Under (136) cashed.
South Alabama F Barry Dunning Jr. secured his fourth double-double of the season Saturday, finishing with a game-high 34 points and team-high 11 rebounds. The Jaguars forced 17 turnovers in the win.
Arkansas State dropped its third game in the last 4 with a 71-70 loss to the visiting Troy Trojans Saturday, failing to cover as a 6.5-point favorite with the Under (145) cashing.
Arkansas State G Terrance Ford Jr. led the way with 18 points, 5 assists and 2 steals in the loss. The Red Wolves' last 3 losses have been by a combined total of just 7 points, and Arkansas State has outscored opponents by an average of 6.8 points over its last 4 games.
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South Alabama at Arkansas State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:55 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : South Alabama +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Arkansas State -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
: South Alabama +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Arkansas State -350 (bet $350 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : South Alabama +8.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -8.5 (-110)
: South Alabama +8.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -8.5 (-110) Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
South Alabama at Arkansas State picks and predictions
Prediction
Arkansas State 72, South Alabama 67
PASS.
I think South Alabama (+280) can win this game outright, but I'd rather play it safe and take the points.
BET SOUTH ALABAMA +8.5 (-110).
This matchup feels way closer than the line suggests. It's the Sun Belt's best offense against one of its top defenses. The Red Wolves lead the conference in scoring at 79 points per game (PPG), while the Jaguars are giving up just 63.7 PPG.
South Alabama dominated the first meeting — a 76-62 Jaguars home win Jan. 9 — winning by 14 and holding Arkansas State to just 62 points. But expecting a repeat seems like a stretch.
The Jaguars come in hot, while Arkansas State has been in a bunch of tight games, with a few tough losses. This one should be another close battle. The key? Mistakes. South Alabama takes care of the ball with a -4.5 turnover differential, making it tough to put away late.
Still, Arkansas State is at home, and it has been right there in recent games. If it keeps it close, it should have a shot to pull this one out in the end.
BET UNDER 141.5 (-110).
Both of these teams like to slow things down, and it shows in their betting trends. They've both hit the Under consistently, going a combined 19-30-1 O/U this season. The Under has cashed in 4 of the last 6 meetings, and Arkansas State has stayed Under in 7 of its last 10 overall.
With South Alabama's strong defense setting the tone, this one has all the makings of a low-scoring battle. The smart play is the Under.
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