What the voter gender divide means for Canada's political future

Yahoo

20-05-2025

Canada's recent federal election suggests a growing gender divide in political preferences.
Polling indicated women voters leaned strongly toward the Liberals, while an increasing number of men — particularly younger men — gravitated toward the Conservatives.
This polarization was not simply a matter of partisan preference, but reflected deeper social, cultural and economic realignments rooted in identity politics and diverging values.
The gender gap also mirrors patterns across western democracies, where far-right populist parties increasingly draw male support through nationalist, anti-immigration and anti-feminist narratives, while women — especially racialized and university-educated — opt for progressive parties promoting equality and social protection.
Read more:
While official voting records by gender are not available, several public opinion polls heading into the election indicated gender was a key predictor of party support.
Abacus Data found that women's early preferences were nearly evenly split — 31 per cent for the Liberals and 32 per cent for the Conservatives. But as the campaign progressed, Liberal support among women rose steadily by two to three points per week, reaching 35 per cent by April 8, while support for the Conservatives fell to 30 per cent.
This pattern was echoed by an EKOS Politics analysis, which described the 2025 election as defined by a 'massive gender divide' — women supported the Liberal Party by a 25-point margin, while the Conservatives held a slight lead among men, especially those under 50.
Findings from Angus Reid further underscored this divide. Among men, support was closely split, with the Conservatives holding a slight lead over the Liberals (44 per cent to 42 per cent). Among women, however, the Liberals enjoyed a commanding lead, with 51 per cent support compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives.
Together, these three polls suggest a growing gender gap in Canadian politics — one that shaped party support throughout the election campaign.
The New Democratic Party, meanwhile — once positioned as a progressive bridge between working-class voters and social justice movements — struggled to attract voters as it had in previous elections.
The NDP's waning influence in the 2025 election highlights the erosion of class-based solidarity, which has seemingly been supplanted by identity politics.
This gender gap was not just about party preference — it reflected deeper ideological divides shaped by cultural values, policy priorities and gender identities.
Research into voting patterns in Canada over the past two decades found that Canadian women are more likely to support social welfare, state intervention and wealth redistribution — driven not by self-interest, but by values of equity and collective responsibility.
These preferences are shaped not only by gender, but also by age, race, class, religion and gender identities. The research highlighted a growing feminist consciousness and suggested that evolving understandings of identity, especially among younger women, have strengthened support for progressive platforms.
Voting preferences in the 2025 Canadian election reflected these patterns. Rising geopolitical tensions — fuelled by punitive American tariffs on Canadian goods and United States President Donald Trump's threats to annex Canada — stirred national anxiety and shaped voter priorities.
At the same time, the American rollback of reproductive rights and attacks on diversity, equity and inclusion policies raised alarm among women worldwide, reinforcing concerns about gender equity and human rights.
That meant that how the Conservative and Liberal party leaders articulated their stances on these issues played a crucial role in shaping voter preferences.
The Conservative Party emphasized economic policies such as tax cuts and reducing government spending. The party also tapped into cultural frustrations by opposing 'woke' ideologies and promoting traditional values.
This dual approach sought to resonate with voters alienated by progressive norms, particularly younger men who have felt marginalized by the housing crisis, insecure job markets and shifting cultural expectations around gender roles.
Read more:
In contrast, the Liberal platform emphasized defending Canadian sovereignty, promoting national unity, expanding housing affordability, addressing climate change and advancing economic measures for the middle class — policies that seemingly resonated more with women voters, particularly those prioritizing social programs and long-term social stability.
Although reproductive rights were not a central issue in Canada's 2025 campaign, the erosion of those rights in the U.S. cast a shadow north of the border.
The Liberal Party pledged to make its Sexual and Reproductive Health Fund permanent and to introduce a new IVF program offering up to $20,000 per cycle — measures aimed at improving access, especially for 2SLGBTQI+ Canadians.
The Conservative platform emphasized support for universal health care but made no mention of reproductive health. As a result, many women may have viewed the Liberals as stronger defenders of both reproductive rights and Canadian sovereignty.
The 2025 election did more than reveal a partisan split; it exposed fundamentally different visions of Canada's future between men and women.
Gender divides in politics often mirror divisions in online discourse. Social media platforms tend to reinforce gendered political identities, with men more likely to be drawn into algorithm-driven spaces that amplify anti-establishment and masculinist narratives.
Following the U.S. presidential election in 2024, The Guardian noted how social media algorithms feed their users content that's aligned with the preferences of similar users, deepening ideological silos.
American podcaster Joe Rogan exemplifies this dynamic — his show consistently tops charts in the U.S., Australia, the U.K. and Canada, but with an audience that's more than 80 per cent male.
These digital bubbles not only reflect polarization — they entrench it, merging political and online identities in ways that make cross-cutting dialogue harder to achieve.
This divide affects more than politics. It's reshaping personal relationships. As political identity becomes central to personal values, dating and marriage across ideological lines have become more difficult.
According to the American Survey Center, these political divisions are even preventing young people from building meaningful relationships.
Similarly, the Atlantic reports that nearly two-thirds of liberal and conservative singles are likely to reject a potential partner who does not share their political beliefs. In this climate, political compatibility is becoming a prerequisite for long-term commitment, rather than a negotiable difference.
Addressing this fragmentation requires building narratives that transcend identity silos and foster common ground, both online and offline. It's essential for democratic resilience and for sustaining meaningful human connection.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organisation bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Marshia Akbar, Toronto Metropolitan University
Read more:
Mark Carney's cabinet: A course correction on gender, but there's more work ahead
The attack on public broadcasting is part of a growing threat to press freedom and democracy
The King's speech: The world will be watching when Charles opens Canada's Parliament
Marshia Akbar receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).