Master of deception: How Trump is fudging the numbers
When looking at the latest US Congressional Budget Office analysis of the Trump administration's proposed budget and tariff policies, the saying 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' comes readily to mind because, at the heart of both sets of policies, is financial legerdemain.
The CBO's verdict on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now being negotiated by Senate Republicans is that, in its current form, it would add $US2.4 trillion ($3.7 trillion) to US government's $US36.2 trillion of debt over the next decade.
A separate CBO analysis of the Trump tariffs, however, said it could raise $US2.8 trillion over the same period, suggesting that it would more than cover the increased spending.
At the core of the increase in spending is the extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which mainly favoured companies and wealthy households.
Those cuts had a 'sunset' clause – they were scheduled to end in December this year – which was an accounting artifice to keep their cost below $US1.5 trillion rather than multiples of that amount had they been factored into the CBO's usual 10-year projections.
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In the One Big Beautiful Bill, the Republicans are emulating their 2017 strategy, with a range of the Trump campaign pledges on cuts to the taxes on tips, overtime, social security benefits for seniors and the interest on car loans supposed to expire by the end of his term in January 2029.
Between them, their cost amounts to nearly $US300 billion over that period. If they were extended – and there would be significant political pain for the next administration if they weren't extended – their cost over the normal 10-year budget assessments would be closer to $US1 trillion.
The cost of extending the $US3.8 trillion of core tax cuts – the extension of the 2017 tax package – would increase to $US5.3 trillion if they remain in place over the decade.
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Sky News AU
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an hour ago
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* Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium
