Who could be the new Pope? The cardinals tipped to come out on top in the Conclave

Independent

08-05-2025

The doors of the Sistine Chapel have been sealed with the cardinals inside, cut off from the outside world electing the next Pope.
Before they entered four favourites have emerged to succeed Pope Francis but the uncertainty around whether any candidate has sufficient support has meant that it is one of the most wide open conclaves in history.
According to insiders cardinals Pietro Parolin (Secretary of State), Peter Erdov (Hungary), Jean-Marc Aveline (France) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem) are the frontrunners.
But more than a dozen others are in the running. In particular, cardinals Cristóbal López Romero (Morocco) and Robert Prevost (an American Vatican insider) are rising as possible dark horse alternatives to Aveline.
Much will depend on whether the largest and most powerful faction of the late Pope Francis' closest supporters - the 'Bergoglian' faction (in reference to Francis' surname) - decide to fall in behind one candidate or support the Secretary of State Cardinal Parolin.
But the death of Pope Francis set in motion a centuries-old ritual involving sacred oaths, performed by the cardinals who will elect his successor.
The process of electing a new Pope is shrouded in secrecy, with cardinals forbidden from communicating with the outside world what happens in the conclave, which takes place within the frescoed walls of the Sistine Chapel.
The pontiff's age, along with his health concerns in recent years – including his recent complex lung infection – led to questions being asked well before his death about who would succeed him.
As is always the case, in the months and years prior to the death of a pope, a selection of candidates known as papabile emerge as the frontrunners to become the new leader of the Catholic Church.
What happens now?
The Vatican convened the papal conclave on Wednesday 7 May, in which the College of Cardinals came together to elect the Church's next head.
The rules of the conclave, as of 22 January 2025, state that of the 252 cardinals, 138 qualify as electors. Only those under the age of 80 may take part in the secret ballot in the Sistine Chapel.
Four rounds of voting take place every day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, in a process that typically lasts around 15 to 20 days, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
The belief is that the Holy Spirit will move the conclave to find the worthy successor to St Peter.
There are already a number of well-known cardinals whose names have been informally put forward to fill the role. In 2020, Edward Pentin released an authoritative book on the topic, titled The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates.
But candidates known as papabile have risen and fallen even since the publication of that book. Favourites entering the conclave rarely emerge as Pope, which has spawned the Italian adage: 'Enter the conclave as Pope and leave as a cardinal.'
In fact, of the last six conclaves only Pope Benedict in 2005 would emerge as Pope having entered as the favourite. So many will be looking at the compromise candidates as a possible successor to Francis.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Moderate
Cardinal Parolin is now considered 'the main candidate', a strong favourite to be the next Pope but 'not a certainty'.
As the Vatican's secretary of state since 2013, 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking member of the electing conclave. Rather than adhering to 'left' or 'right' political leanings, Cardinal Parolin has long been considered a sensible, moderate figure within the Church.
Most recently, Cardinal Parolin gave an interview with Italian newspaper L'Eco di Bergamo in which he commented on a number of geopolitical issues.
He said: 'Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions must never be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire peoples, otherwise there will never be a just and lasting peace.'
A well placed Vatican insider told The Independent: 'It is hard to know if he [Parolin] really is the main candidate because the group of cardinals are very difficult to read. They are a very strange bunch and they don't really know one another.
'What they see as a good candidate may be very different to what the media say.
'Parolin is a very safe bet because they all know him. He was nice to everyone and never had conflicts with anyone. He has been working in the Vatican for more than 10 years and knows how it works.'
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Conservative
As a former president of the Council of the Bishops' Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdo is known for being a devout Marian, meaning he devotes his practices to Mary, mother of Jesus.
He is the leading candidate on the conservative wing of the Church, and it is thought he could be the main challenger to Cardinal Parolin in the early conclave votes.
The 72-year-old Hungarian has famously been a more conservative voice within the Church, having opposed the practice of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving Holy Communion due to his belief in the insolubility of marriage.
He has also compared the act of taking in refugees to human trafficking. Erdo was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline
Moderate liberal
The Archbishop of Marseille is a name that has gathered traction and apparently a great deal of support. Cardinal Aveline is said to have been the successor that Pope Francis himself wanted and is rapidly becoming the candidate of those who supported his agenda.
While he was not previously described as papabile, he has emerged as a serious contender among moderates since Pope Francis' death.
The 66-year-old French prelate originates from the old French Algeria colony but spent much of his life in Marseille.
The cardinal has been described as a "rather liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus" by the College of Cardinals Report website. It makes him a candidate who could potentially reach out to the different factions.
Cardinal Aveline has also regularly been portrayed in the French press as Pope Francis' favorite prelate, and is said to be the most 'Bergoglian' (in reference to Francis' surname) of France's bishops.
His chances of being elected depend very much on if the allies of Pope Francis fall in behind him early, if not he could miss out to one of Cardinals Tagle, Zuppi, López Romero, Grech or, a late inclusion in the Papabile, Prevost.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Moderate conservative
The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem is only 60 and much younger than all the other contenders but has gone from a left field option in the conclave to one of the favourites. It may be by the time the conclave begins that he has become one of the more serious contenders.
Essentially, it his role as leader of the Catholics in the Holy Land at a time when Middle East events in Israel and Gaza are at the forefront of world and Church politics.
Choosing Pizzaballa would be a significant geopolitical statement by the Church, especially at a time it has been highly critical of Benjamin Netanyahu's government.
However, Pizzaballa has not taken sides as others have done. He was one of the first to condemn Hamas for the 7 October attacks on Israel and offered himself in exchange for Israeli children taken as hostages by the Palestinian terrorists.
As well as being a heroic figure with a keen ability as a diplomat he is also a leading Biblical scholar. Pope Francis was known to highly respect him and called him almost daily.
He will almost certainly get votes in the conclave and if he does not emerge this time because of his relatively young age he will be a contender again in the future.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Moderate liberal
As the seventh Filipino to become a cardinal, Cardinal Tagle would be the first Asian pope and had been considered one of the favourites.
But now there are serious questions over whether he has much support among fellow cardinals and is actually, according to Vatican insiders, a favourite only in the media coverage rather than reality.
The 67-year-old currently serves as the pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation, having been made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI. He is the most liberal candidate among the frontrunners and often dubbed 'Francis 2' in his similarities to the late Pope.
Cardinal Tagle has typically shown more left-leaning politics, similar to those of Pope Francis, and has criticised the Church's attitude and language towards gay people, unmarried mothers, and divorced or remarried Catholics.
He said in 2015: 'The harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers [and so on], in the past they were quite severe. Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society.'
Cardinal Robert Prevost
Moderate liberal
While many observers think that cardinals will revert to a European Pope after the Francis experiment, if they do go back to the Americas then the 69-year-old Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishop will be a name who is discussed.
Cardinal Robert Prevost hails from Chicago which is the biggest Archdiocese in North America and famously turns the river green on St Patrick's day.
He is believed to be in serious discussion now as the main 'Bergoglian' candidate (Pope Francis allies) instead of Aveline, Tagle or Zuppi. Vatican insiders describe him as the 'dark horse' candidate who has quietly risen to prominence in the days just before the conclave.
He was only promoted to his influential role in the Vatican in 2023 and made a cardinal-bishop in February this year.
A member of the influential Augustinian order his main appeal may be that he is an expert in canon law. There have been concerns over Francis that the Church moved away from a reliance on canon law and the traditional institutions. This makes Prevost a compromise candidate for Francis inspired reformers and those who want some traditional order restored.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Liberal
Another leading 'Bergoglian' candidate Cardinal Zuppi was considered to be a favourite of Pope Francis, and has been president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.
The 69-year-old was made a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since been sent on a number of global trips. He went on a peace mission to Ukraine where he met president Volodymyr Zelensky, but not Russia's Vladimir Putin, and he went to the United States to meet the then president Joe Biden.
Prior to being a cardinal, Mr Zuppi shared his positive view of the LGBT+ community when he wrote in an essay in James Martin's 2018 book Building a Bridge (Un ponte da Costruire) that it would be 'useful for encouraging dialogue, as well as reciprocal knowledge and understanding' to adopt a new pastoral approach towards 'our LGBT brothers and sisters'.
Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero
Moderate liberal
Is a late name to emerge in the days before the conclave. The 72-year-old Archbishop of Rabat crosses several geographical camps as the prelate in Morocco. As a Spaniard with family from Paraguay he attracts support from Africa, Europe and South America.
López Romero is described as a Francis ally in the powerful 'Bergoglian' camp and his candidacy will very much depend on which prelate the largest and most powerful faction in the conclave eventually gets behind.
Among his progressive stances is emphasising the importance with working with Muslims, something that is born of his experience of leading the Catholic community in a Islamic country.
He has avoided taking positions on issues like same-sex marriages or female diaconate.
He has strongly expressed his wish not to be elected, a stance which may help his cause because cardinals tend to dislike ambition.
López Romero told Spanish media: 'Absolutely, I do not want to be elected. One would have to be crazy to desire such a great responsibility. Being Bishop of Rabat already often overwhelms me in scope and intensity.'
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke
Conservative
Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist, Cardinal Burke, born in Wisconsin, was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
He has publicly clashed with Pope Francis's more liberal philosophies, particularly regarding the latter's willingness to allow divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. He has also called the Church's new language around artificial contraception, civil marriage and gay people 'objectionable'.
He previously said that Catholic politicians who support legalised abortion, such as Mr Biden, should not receive the Eucharist.
Cardinal Mario Grech
Liberal
A former conservative, the Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech has emerged as probably the most progressive option for the conclave to consider.
The 68-year-old is the the one leading Church figure to attempt to reach out to LGBT+ communities and reconsider doctrine on a complex issue.
Speaking to the Synod in October 2014, Grech said that "the doctrine of the faith is capable of progressively acquiring a greater depth" and that addressing people in complex familial relations, or homosexuals or parents of homosexuals, "It is necessary to learn to speak that language which is known to contemporary human beings and who acknowledge it as a way of conveying the truth and the charity of the Gospel."
A favourite of Pope Francis', Grech was appointed to the influential role of Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops.
Cardinal Peter Turkson
Conservative
The Ghanaian prelate, 76, has emerged as one of the leading papabile in recent months and would be the first African pope since Pope Gelasius I in the fifth century.
Cardinal Turkson was a candidate in 2013, but now has more support than when Pope Francis was elected in the last conclave.
With Catholicism growing in Africa and declining in European and other Western countries, there is a feeling that its centre of gravity is shifting to the developing world.
Cardinal Turkson is politically on the left, and has led for the Church on social justice issues, been a critic of neoliberal capitalism and worked for peace.
However, theologically he is very conservative, and was a leading voice against the use of condoms despite the Aids pandemic in Africa. He also defended a more hardline view on homosexuality.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Conservative
Another African papabile is Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea. The 79-year-old conservative was an ally of the previous pope, Benedict, and served as his president of the Pontifical Council.
Cardinal Sarah has been a leading player in the Vatican since 2001, and carries a lot of experience through various roles in the Church's institutions. Some thought that his best opportunity came in 2013, when Pope Francis emerged as the choice of the cardinals instead.
Cardinal Sarah is a traditionalist and a conservative, who has suggested that some of the reforms brought in by the Second Vatican Council to modernise the Church in the 1960s are not obligatory. He is very anti-LGBT+ and has opposed attempts to recognise homosexuality in various African countries.
One of his strengths is that he has a deeper understanding and respect for Islam, as a cardinal from a country where the population is divided between the two religions. He has opposed attacks by the West on Muslim countries such as Iraq. He once noted: 'The Islam in my country is a fraternal, peaceful religion.'
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Conservative
Completing the African contingent is Archbishop of Kinshasa and head of the Church in the Democratic Republic of Congo. At 65 he is one of the younger papabile but is a name rising on various lists as a possible successor to Francis.
Besunga has played a key role in the spread of Catholicism in Africa and won admirers for standing up to the DRC government who ordered for him to be investigated for sedition.
But like the other African cardinals he is a conservative and hit international prominence with his opposition to blessings of same sex unions.
Also in the running
Cardinal Reinhard Marx
Liberal
Could the Catholic church deal with a dose of 'Marxism'? The 71-year-old Archbishop of Munich and Freising is a divisive figure who, like his namesake Karl, is a strong critic of capitalism.
Form many years he was a strong ally of Pope Francis from the liberal wing of the church and has been much more progressive on LGBT+ issues than most. However, he was removed Francis' council of cardinals in May 2023, falling out of favour having been a key adviser.
Added to that in 2021 he offered his resignation for failing to deal with historic abuse in the Church, although this was rejected at the time.
Cardinal Marx has not been afraid of getting involved in politics and even criticised Brexit even though he insisted the 2016 vote should be respected.
He has experience with the inner workings of the Vatican not least its finances having been on the Council for the Economy when the Holy See had a deficit.
He has been a prominent figure at international events including presiding over the funeral of former German football captain and manager Franz Beckenbauer.
But in many ways he is the Pope most likely to bring the Church into the 21st century but one whose time may have passed.
Cardinal Angelo Scola
Moderate conservative
The former Archbishop of Milan is the leading name of four Italian cardinals who are seen as potential stop gap candidates if the conclave's factions cannot come to agreement over the leading contenders. He is believed to have come second to Francis at the last conclave.
At 83 Scola would be the oldest cardinal elected as Pope since Clement X in 1670 and it would be hoped he could provide steady but uncontroversial leadership to give the church breathing space to decide which direction to take in the future.
However, last time cardinals took this safe stop gap option they elected the 77-year-old John XXIII in 1958 who turned out to be one of the most radical and consequential popes in history. He launched the Second Vatican Council to modernise the church and changing Catholicism forever.
Cardinal Wim Eijk
Conservative
The Archbishop of Utrecht, 71, has been one of the biggest conservative critics of Pope Francis' papacy. A medical doctor by training he is unusual among the cardinals in having a scientific background but has been a fierce opponent of LGBT+ rights.
In 2015 he came to public attention for removing a parish treasurer from their position because they were transgender.
He was also highly critical of ecumenical attempts to reach out to other Christian denominations. In 2018 he condemned Pope Francis for failing to completely rule out a German proposal to allow Protestants to take the eucharist.
Cardinal Gerhard Müller
Conservative
Cardinal Gerhard Müller is a German prelate who hails from Mainz and is seen as a champion of the traditionalist wing of the Church particularly those who want the Latin Mass restored.
The 77-year-old has become a fierce critic of Francis after the late Pope sacked him from the pivotal Vatican role as cardinal-prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith last year.
Müller is a strong opponent of relaxing rules on homosexuality arguing that it is 'a condition of totalitarianism'.
He has though been associated with leftwing Liberation Theologians seeking social justice for the poor but only after he was persuaded by Gustavo Gutiérrez, the father of the Liberation Theology movement, that it was an orthodox part of Catholicism.
He was also one of the most outspoken critics of former US president Joe Biden for supporting abortion.
Cardinal Christoph Schönborn
Moderate
The 80-year-old Archbishop emeritus of Vienna has just retired from his roles and will not get a vote in the conclave because of his age.
Nevertheless, as a figure who was respected across the different factions Cardinal Schönborn may be a name still in contention.
Most of all he won respect for being one of the stronger voices in dealing with the historic sexual abuse in the Church.
In May 2010 Schönborn told the Austrian Catholic news agency Kathpress: "The days of cover-up are over. For a long while the Church's principle of forgiveness was falsely interpreted and was in favour of those responsible and not the victims."
He has though been a strong opponent to Church reform not least in his fight with a dissident priest movement in Austria which was made up of around 10 per cent of its priests and demanded radical changes. This included allowing priests to marry, as well as allowing divorced Catholics and non-Catholic Christians to receive communion.
Despite meeting with the group known as Pfarrer Initiative in June 2012 the Austrian prelate publicly reaffirmed the official position of the Vatican on the issues raised by the dissident group and directed that no priest expressing support for the "Call to Disobedience" be allowed to hold any administrative post in the Austrian Catholic Church.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet
Moderate
The Canadian cardinal from Quebec speaks seven languages fluently. At 80, he is now too old to vote in the conclave, although he remains a candidate for the papacy.
Cardinal Ouellet's hopes, though, have been hit by allegations that emerged in August 2022, when a lawsuit involving an unnamed woman was filed against him.
Prior to that he had been one of the leading voices for change in the Church in the wake of the sexual abuse scandal involving priests.
In 2018, he said: 'We will need more participation of women in the formation of priests, in teaching, in the discernment of candidates and their emotional balance.'
Cardinal Vincent Nichols
Moderate
The 79-year-old has been head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales since 2009, and is just young enough to vote in this conclave because he does not turn 80 until November.
Cardinal Nichols is seen as a steady, middle-of-the-road candidate, and could potentially emerge as a compromise figure if there is a standoff between the factions within the conclave.
The English cardinal, originally from Crosby in Lancashire, would be the first British pope since Adrian IV in 1154.
He has carefully picked his battles on social issues in the UK, steering clear of interventions in the LGBT+ debates, but has launched a strong fight against the assisted dying bill currently being debated in parliament.
That said, he has not been named as one of the papabile, and would be a longshot for the throne of St Peter. Nevertheless, non- papabile have been elected Pope on eight occasions, including John XXIII, who initiated the Second Vatican Council, and John Paul II.
Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe
Moderate
One underrated name is Dominican friar Timothy Radcliffe, 79, who is much loved by many Catholics for his spiritual writings. He was a frequent adviser to Pope Francis.
He was only made a cardinal in October last year and is a Master Emeritus of Order of Preachers.
Like Vincent Nichols he is highly unlikely to win any votes in the conclave but cannot be completely ruled out.
Cardinal Arthur Roche
Moderate liberal
At 74 Arthur Roche is the youngest of the British cardinals. The former bishop of Leeds now heads up a Vatican department called Divine Worship where he has become a controversial figure blamed for the suppression of the traditional Latin mass.
Roche is a Vatican reformer who was close to Francis and is more likely to be an influencer in the election than a candidate.
Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald
Moderate
Much respected by Pope Francis for his work on interfaith dialogue especially with Muslims, Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald is a highly experienced diplomat.
However, at 87 he will not have a vote in the conclave and will be considered to be too old to succeed Francis.
The stand-in
Cardinal Kevin Farrell
Moderate conservative
Currently, Cardinal Kevin Farrell, an Irish born American who announced Pope Francis' death to the world, is effectively standing in as temporary administrative head of the church in his role as Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church.
The 77-year-old cannot be completely ruled out as a successor but he is not considered to be a papabile and there are a long list of contenders ahead of him.
Added to that his conservative views have not seen him shy away from diplomatic controversy. In 2018 he infamously prevented the then Irish president Mary McAleese, a supporter of women's ordination and same-sex marriage, from speaking at a Vatican conference on Women in the Catholic Church.
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