Analyst who nailed Tesla's collapse has a new prediction as Musk turns bearish
Analyst who nailed Tesla's collapse has a new prediction as Musk turns bearish originally appeared on TheStreet.
In August 2022, crypto investor and analyst Tuur Demeester made a bold call: sell Tesla (TSLA), buy Bitcoin. At the time, it may have seemed contrarian. But five months later, the trade proved golden.
'It was indeed a good time to swap one for the other,' Demeester posted on Jan. 4, 2023. 'TSLA lost 53% against BTC in 5 months.'
Now, nearly two years after his original post, Demeester is revisiting the chart. 'Is it time to get back into TSLA, with Elon being super bearish on the US dollar?' he wrote on June 5, sharing an updated long-term ratio chart between Tesla and Bitcoin.
As per Kraken's price feeds, Bitcoin is up 11.6% over the past 30 days and 47.9% over the past year. The asset hit an all-time high of $111,814 on May 22, 2025, and is currently trading around $104,902 — down about 6.2% from that peak.
Demeester's annotated charts show Tesla's value measured in Bitcoin — a view only seasoned crypto traders tend to track. In early 2020, TSLA began its parabolic run, outperforming Bitcoin significantly and entering what he called the 'TSLA Pump Zone.'
But by mid-2022, the ratio peaked and began a sharp descent. The zone he had once dubbed 'RIP TSLA' wasn't a joke — Tesla's BTC ratio plunged from over 0.015 to just 0.003 as of June 2025.
In this context, the ratio (TSLA:BTC) tells you how many Bitcoin you could buy with one share of Tesla stock. It's a way of comparing Tesla's performance directly against Bitcoin, rather than just looking at their dollar prices. If the ratio rises, Tesla is gaining value faster than Bitcoin. If it falls, Bitcoin is outperforming Tesla.
His final chart, shared this week, shows the ratio bottoming out again. It's the lowest it's been since late 2019, with Tesla now worth just 0.3% of a Bitcoin per share — down over 80% from its peak in BTC terms.
At the same time Demeester's chart hits rock bottom, Tesla is facing fresh macro threats. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman believes Donald Trump's proposed 'One Big Beautiful Bill' could deal a multibillion-dollar blow to Tesla's earnings.
'The legislation would get rid of the $7,500 federal tax credit EV buyers receive, resulting in a $1.2 billion (19% of its EBIT) headwind,' Brinkman said. He also warned Tesla could lose access to California's ZEV regulatory credits — a move that could have added another $2 billion in losses last quarter.
Musk, once Trump's pick to run the Department of Government Efficiency, isn't pleased either. 'It increases the budget deficit… and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,' he said last week.
With political uncertainty, Fed rate pressure, and Musk's robotaxi gamble all in play, TSLA still faces serious headwinds. But if Bitcoin starts to cool off — or if the EV giant pulls off a surprise earnings beat — Demeester's ratio chart could signal a rare re-entry point.
'The political & operational risk is significant, of course,' he added.
For now, he's just watching. But others may start charting the same flip — from BTC back to TSLA — if sentiment turns.
At the time of writing, Tesla holds 11,509 BTC — worth approximately $1.2 billion. The company first bought Bitcoin in February 2021 and famously sold 75% of its holdings in July 2022. Despite that sale, Tesla remains one of the largest public corporate holders of Bitcoin today.
Musk has repeatedly warned that the U.S. government is spending recklessly. With the national debt crossing $36.9 trillion, he believes the dollar is being devalued, which undermines its long-term stability.
Musk slammed Trump's new 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' calling it 'a massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill.' He said it worsens the deficit and undoes the cost-cutting efforts he was tasked with under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Analyst who nailed Tesla's collapse has a new prediction as Musk turns bearish first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 5, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 5, 2025, where it first appeared.
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