Analysis: Is Reform UK's Nigel Farage a threat to the Union?
Just a few months ago the prospect of Mr Farage winning the keys to Number 10 would have seemed unbelievable.
Reform has just five MPs but unprecedented gains in local elections in England in May, plus successive polling, has now led to the former Ukip leader becoming the bookmakers' favourite to be Britain's next Prime Minister.
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With the rise of Reform observers are now thinking through the consequences and what will be the impact on the constitutional question.
Of course, there are the caveats that this is just one poll and that the next general election isn't scheduled to be held until sometime before August 2029. Political parties' fortunes and misfortunes can radically change in four years.
Sir Keir Starmer may be able to move on from some of the controversial decisions such as the cut to winter fuel payments for pensioners which damaged his and his government's popularity in the weeks that followed Labour's election success in July last year. Perhaps Labour may even change leaders and refresh its offering ahead of polling day? Maybe the Tories will recover, though at the moment that is looking very unlikely.
But even should none of these changes take place and Reform do storm to victory in 2029, recent history should calm unionist fears that the UK is about to break up.
Over the last decade or so similar polling forecasts were made about the rise in support for independence based on various scenarios regarded as fundamentally unpalatable to the values and outlook of Scots.
First it was Brexit - leaving the EU would make Scotland independent it was claimed by the SNP.
Then it was the Boris Johnson "clown" ; then it was Scotland apparently handling Covid better than the Conservative government, then it was Liz Truss and her dodgy budget and then it was Keir Starmer's and his various "betrayals" of pensioners and the disabled.
Yet nine years after the Brexit vote and the turmoil in UK politics which was left in its wake Scotland is still very much part of the Union.
So based upon what has happened before I am sceptical whether a Prime Minister Farage would turn Scotland into a nation of Yessers.
Besides the 54% support for independence is somewhat off from the level of support First Minister John Swinney suggested would be needed to bring about indyref2.
Last month Mr Swinney talked about securing "demonstrable support" for independence and compared it to the 1997 referendum for a Scottish Parliament, which was backed by around 74% of Scots.
But it seems that whatever happens at Westminster a certain proportion of Scots may rail about the state of affairs and show their disapproval in opinion polls, before simply getting used to the political landscape there and reluctantly tolerating it.
It's a phenomenon which illustrates the limitations of the negative case for independence.
So it's probably safe to reassure pro-UK voters that they need not fear that the UK is on course to break up in the next decade, whether Keir Starmer remains in Downing Street after polling day in 2029, gives way to a Labour rival or whether Nigel Farage indeed wins power.
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