Zombie waiver walking

Politico

21-05-2025

Presented by
With help from Camille von Kaenel, Nicole Norman and Jordain Carney
WAIVING GOODBYE: Senate Republicans are about to kill California's vehicle emissions rules, and state officials are going back to the drawing board.
Democrats' threats of future retribution for overruling the Senate parliamentarian didn't stop Senate Majority Leader John Thune from teeing up votes Tuesday to roll back California's zero-emission sales mandates for cars and heavy-duty trucks, ending a monthslong game of 'will he, won't he' that kept the automotive world on edge.
Next come the inevitable lawsuits once President Donald Trump signs the resolutions. Attorney General Rob Bonta has been ready for this since at least March. 'We don't think it's an appropriate use of the Congressional Review Act, and we're prepared to defend ourselves if it's wrongfully weaponized,' he told us back then.
California leaders are still thinking about what to do after that.
Lindsay Buckley, a spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board, said the agency isn't deterred by an impending vote that 'does not change CARB's authority,' which includes a federal requirement to reduce pollution levels that are among the highest in the nation.
'CARB will continue its mission to protect the public health of Californians impacted by harmful air pollution,' she said in a statement.
But losing the power to dictate automakers' sales targets is undoubtedly a knee-capping of a major tool in the state's climate policy kit. And CARB hasn't detailed what exactly its next steps will look like.
Former CARB Chair Mary Nichols said state and local governments still have multiple options at their disposal that don't require federal approval, including electrification incentives and taxes on fossil fuels reforms that push residents and businesses to invest in EVs.
Craig Segall, a former CARB executive director, said there's also nothing stopping the agency from starting to develop new emissions rules that would be approved by a future Democratic administration.
He said the demise of the EV sales mandates could actually have a silver lining for clean transportation advocates by forcing California, which risks losing federal highway funding if it doesn't reduce pollution, to rethink its strategy and invest more into alternatives like public transit.
'What this opens up, I hope, is the conversation more broadly around what is our transport decarbonization strategy,' Segall said.
California's loss this round could also reopen the window for state officials to negotiate with automakers. That's what happened after Trump's EPA undid an earlier EV waiver during his first term. And while California now has less leverage, car companies already have an incentive to build EVs for growing markets in Asia and Europe.
'What [automakers] wanted was some relief on the sales mandate; they wanted to stop buying credits from Tesla,' Nichols said. 'But when it comes to the types of cars that they're making, those decisions are made years in advance.'
But the odds of that sort of deal materializing quickly aren't looking great. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents major automakers, didn't immediately respond to requests for comment on the impending Senate vote, but the group has lobbied lawmakers for months to kill the waivers.
Worse for California is that Stellantis, which had previously aligned itself with state officials, isn't running to defend the rules. The world's fifth-largest automaker, which owns brands like Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge, inked a deal with California last year to follow the state's EV sales targets even if the mandate goes away, but directed questions to the Auto Alliance when asked about Thune's move Tuesday.
Newsom used the moment to take a jab at Trump, who's made China the top target of his trade war, and accuse the Senate of ceding the car industry to America's biggest economic competitor. Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV producer last year, marking the first time Elon Musk's company didn't hold the top spot.
'Will you side with China or America?' he asked in a statement. — AN
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ABOUT THOSE THREATS: Sen. Alex Padilla — speaking to POLITICO ahead of Senate Democrats' pleas from the floor Tuesday afternoon to spare the waiver — talked about his attempt to hold up EPA nominations in protest of the CRA maneuver and Democrats' vows to inflict payback.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Republicans seem to think you're bluffing. Is your party actually willing to play hardball, and do you have targets in mind for when Democrats are in power?
What goes around, comes around. If they do this and set a new precedent, then you better believe when the majority shifts again, Democrats will not be shy, will not hold back on combing through a whole lot of other agency decisions for the same treatment.
What is objecting to four EPA nominees really going to do? What more will your party do to make Republicans feel pain for their decision, and is leadership willing to take those steps?
We had a long, late meeting [Monday] night in Sen. [Chuck] Schumer's office with a number of Senate Democrats with a twofold agenda. No. 1: What else can we do here at this late stage in the game? What Hail Marys do we have in the back pocket to try to keep this from happening? But No. 2: Starting to think, if the Republicans go through with this and are successful, then what are our next steps?
What was the discussion like? Were there any targets that stood out immediately in your discussion with the leadership and other Democrats?
There's a growing list of potential CRAs that we may bring, and we don't have to wait until we're back in the majority to bring them. There are some CRAs that we would likely bring in the coming weeks, months, if Republicans go through with this.
You advocated for ending the filibuster in 2021 to pass voting rights legislation. Is your concern now politically expedient?
At least when we were debating and taking a vote on abolishing the filibuster specifically for voting rights, we said that's what we were doing. Republicans today are on the verge of this nuclear option, but they're in denial about the filibuster precedent that they're about to set. — AN
DELTA WARS: Stae Sen. Jerry McNerney is laying down the gauntlet against Newsom's budget proposal to fast-track the controversial Delta tunnel.
McNerney said Tuesday he has the votes to defeat Newsom's bid last week to speed up the permitting for a tunnel underneath the state's main water delivery hub, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, if it came to that.
McNerney said his next move is convincing Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire and other legislative leadership to take his side — though he acknowledged they may be reluctant to go against Newsom, who sees the tunnel as a key climate adaptation project he wants to get permitted before he leaves office.
'People don't like to cross the governor, and this is very important to him, apparently,' said McNerney.
Newsom spokesperson Tara Gallegos said, 'Today's press conference demonstrated why this fast track is necessary, as it is clear that misinformation will continue to delay and obfuscate this critical project.' — NN, CvK
DIRTY WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE: Don't blink or you'll miss it, but a California Democrat is thanking the Trump administration for an effort to protect the environment.
Rep. Scott Peters of San Diego thanked U.S. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin in a congressional hearing Tuesday for his attention to the San Diego region's problems with raw sewage flowing across the international border from Mexico, closing beaches and polluting military training sites. Zeldin seized on the issue this spring, including by touring San Diego last month and pressing Mexico to do more to stop the pollution.
There's at least one concrete result so far: The U.S. EPA and the International Border and Water Commission announced Tuesday they are planning to speed up a planned expansion of the South Bay International Wastewater Treatment Plant along the Tijuana River, finishing a first phase of the project in 100 days instead of the originally scheduled two years. — CvK
I'VE GOT MY EYE ON YOU: Speaking of rules that don't have a waiver: The California Air Resources Board settled a lawsuit against their zero-emission truck purchasing rule for fleets last week, signaling their commitment to repealing the regulations that they started walking back in January, right before Trump took office.
CARB reached an agreement with the Specialty Equipment Market Association — which sued over the rule last year — to repeal requirements under the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation that larger fleets and those serving ports phase out purchases of diesel trucks.
The case will be suspended until CARB follows through with their end of the deal.
'This is a necessary agreement,' said Karen Bailey-Chapman, the senior vice president for public and government affairs at SEMA. 'This agreement brings closure to California's attempted overreach beyond its borders and the seriousness of the implications to our nation's system of interstate commerce.'
CARB did not immediately respond to a request for comment. — NN
BACK TO THE LAND: Newsom on Tuesday named Sacramento attorney Matthew Read to serve as chief counsel in his Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation (formerly Office of Planning and Research). Read previously worked at the pollution-awareness group Breathe California, for the Strategic Growth Council and in the office of Sacramento City Councilmember Steve Hansen.
— State Farm is asking for an 11 percent rate hike for next year — on top of the 17 percent emergency rate hike Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara approved last week.
— Nichols, the former CARB chair, says to look at what subnational governments are doing on forests.
— The dairy industry is touting its expected avoidance this year of 5 million metric tons of methane, two-thirds of the way to its state-set goal of reducing livestock methane emissions 40 percent below 2013 levels by 2030.