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P.E.I. projects record $183.9M deficit in budget designed with population growth, trade war in mind

P.E.I. projects record $183.9M deficit in budget designed with population growth, trade war in mind

CBC10-04-2025

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Prince Edward Island is projecting the largest budget deficit in its history for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, according to the province's latest operating budget, tabled in the legislature Thursday by Finance Minister Jill Burridge.
The budget projects revenues of $3.34 billion and expenditures of $3.53 billion, resulting in a forecasted deficit of $183.9 million. That is more than triple the $59.5 million deficit forecasted in last spring's budget for the same fiscal year.
The previous record deficit was in 2020-2021, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the province recorded a $172.7 million deficit.
While the government led by new Premier Rob Lantz expects the deficits to decrease in the years ahead, they will still remain high. The province projects a deficit of $167.8 million in 2026-2027 and $119.5 million in 2027-2028.
Burridge said the rising costs are being driven by population growth, an aging population, and ongoing global trade uncertainties — factors she noted are also affecting other parts of Canada.
"We're no different than other provinces out there," she told reporters.
Burridge's speech made promises on two hot-button health-care issues: the future of Prince County Hospital in Summerside and the number of people still without a family doctor or nurse practitioner to manage their primary health care.
"The steps we have taken to stabilize health care are beginning to work," she told the legislature.
"We see it in improved access to care, in shorter wait times, and the return of full-time internal medicine coverage at Prince County Hospital, allowing their ICU to formally reopen this summer. And we will see it when 10,000 Islanders are removed from the patient registry this year — having them connected to the primary care they need and deserve."
The budget was released amid growing global instability, including rising political tensions and trade conflicts, with U.S. president Donald Trump launching a trade war with Canada and many other countries around the world.
"We know the world around us is uncertain," Burridge said. "Today, we take another step forward — securing our future by strengthening our province, investing in the people who make it great, and ensuring a strong, sustainable future for all."
Supporting the economy and workforce
To address the uncertainty, the province is introducing a range of tax reforms that will save Island businesses a total of $9.3 million to reinvest in their operations, Burridge said. These include raising the small business tax threshold by $100,000 to $600,000, and lowering the corporate income tax rate from 16 per cent to 15 per cent.
In addition, province will be addressing personal income taxes. This includes immediately increasing the basic personal exemption to $14,650. Then in January of next year, the province will raise all five tax brackets by 1.8 per cent and further increase the basic personal amount to $15,000.
The province also announced a minimum wage increase to $17 per hour, with details to be released soon, the finance minister said.
Targeted investments to support the economy and workforce include:
$42 million for tariff and trade response, including $32 million for a Tariff and Trade Contingency Fund.
$10 million for a Tariff Working Capital Program.
$3.6 million in oyster industry supports, including a $3-million contingency fund to respond to MSX challenges.
$1.5 million for reskilling and upskilling workers.
$353,000 for expanding air access.
$100,000 to support young farmers through the P.E.I. Young Farmers Association.
Post-secondary students will see increased financial aid, with the George Coles and Marion L. Reid bursaries each rising to $3,500.
Health-care investments
Health care continues to be a top spending priority. Health P.E.I.'s budget will increase from $971.8 million in 2024-2025 to nearly $1.1 billion for the current budget year.
The Department of Health and Wellness will also see an increase from $153 million to $166.4 million.
Highlights include:
$16.8 million for the new Faculty of Medicine based at UPEI.
$21 million for long-term care, including increasing per diem rates for private long-term care homes, and funding to ready 103 new long-term care beds, with plans to add an additional 175 new long-term beds in the future.
$4.8 million to expand virtual care.
$4 million for support programs designed to help seniors stay in their homes longer, including the Self-Managed Care Program and the At Home Caregiver Benefit Program.
$1.1 million to expand health-care training support programs.
$650,000 to hire internationally trained nurses.
$500,000 to expand the Student Nursing Employment Program.
$215,000 for a new upskilling pathway for LPNs to become RNs. This brings to a total investment of $818,000.
A new Practice Readiness Assessment Program will help certify up to 40 internationally trained physicians annually.
Education
Spending for the Department of Education and Early Years will rise from $104.1 million to $117.3 million.
Key investments include:
$10.5 million for early childhood care, including creating or transitioning 190 affordable spaces. This will also include the continuation of the early years centre expansion loan and grant program and increasing wages for early years centres' staff.
$9.2 million for investing in the education system, including new funding for staffing, giving teachers more prep time, and increasing the number of front-line school staff.
$2.5 million in additional support for the School Food Program, bringing the total to $7.5 million this fiscal year.
Investment into communities, infrastructure
As the province is launching a review of the Municipal Government Act, it has entered into an agreement to provide interim funding to municipalities, and $5.5 million will be earmarked for this.
Other key investments include:
$3.2 million for the community sector, including increased funding to food banks.
$3 million to boost the Home Heating Assistance Program to $7.7 million.
$810,000 to create a Joint Enforcement Team to keep communities safe, as police combat mid-level drug trafficking and organized crime.

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Bank of Canada head Tiff Macklem says mandate should evolve in a ‘shock-prone' world
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OTTAWA – Tiff Macklem is wearing an Edmonton Oilers pin as he reflects on coming very close to beating big odds. It's a significant day for the governor of the Bank of Canada: he's just laid out his reasons to the entire country and a global audience for keeping the central bank's benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight time. That night is also Game 1 of the NHL's Stanley Cup finals; Macklem ends his press conference with a hearty 'Go Oilers!' It's a rematch from last year's heartbreak, when the Oilers came oh-so-close to mounting a seemingly impossible four-game comeback against the Florida Panthers, only to fall short by a single goal in Game 7. Macklem, too, was almost safe to declare victory last year. He had just about secured a coveted 'soft landing' for Canada's economy — a rare feat that sees restrictive monetary policy bring down surging levels of inflation without tipping the economy into a prolonged downturn. 'We got inflation down. We didn't cause a recession,' Macklem said in an interview with The Canadian Press after the rate announcement Wednesday. 'And, to be frank, until President (Donald) Trump started threatening the economy with new tariffs, we were actually seeing growth pick up.' Fresh out of one crisis, the central bank now must contend with another in U.S. tariffs. Five years into his tenure as head of the Bank of Canada, Macklem said he sees the central bank's role in stickhandling the economy — as well as Canada's role on the world stage — evolving. Many Canadians have become more familiar with the Bank of Canada in recent years. After the COVID-19 pandemic recovery ignited inflation, the central bank's rapid tightening cycle and subsequent rate cuts were top-line news for anxious Canadians stressed about rising prices and borrowing costs. That was all in pursuit of meeting the central bank's inflation target of two per cent, part of a mandate from the federal government that's up for review next year. Macklem said the past few years have led the Bank of Canada to scrutinize some of its metrics, like core inflation and how it responds to supply shocks in the economy. But he defends keeping the bank's inflation target, particularly at a time of global upheaval. 'Our flexible inflation targeting framework has just been through the biggest test it's ever had in the 30 years since we announced the inflation target,' he said. 'I'm not going to pretend it's been an easy few years for anybody. But I think the framework has performed well.' Macklem said, however, that he sees room to build out the mandate to address other areas of concern from Canadians, such as housing affordability. Whether it's the high cost of rent or a mortgage, or surging prices for groceries and vehicles, Macklem said the past few years have been eye-opening to Canadians who weren't around the last time inflation hit double digits in the 1980s. 'Unfortunately, a whole new generation of Canadians now know what inflation feels like, and they didn't like it one bit,' he said. Monetary policy itself can't make homes more affordable, he noted — in a nutshell, high interest rates make mortgages more expensive while low rates can push up the price of housing itself because they stoke demand. But Macklem said one of the things he's reflecting on is that inflation can get worse when the economy isn't operating at its potential or when it's facing great disruption. 'There is a role for monetary policy to smooth out some of that adjustment — support the economy while ensuring that inflation is well-controlled.' He didn't offer suggestions on how the mandate might expand to address housing affordability specifically, but said 'the work is ongoing' and will be settled in meetings with the federal government next year. Right now, he's trying to make sure that the economic impacts from Canada's tariff dispute with the United States don't result in prolonged inflation. The Bank of Canada is not alone in debating how monetary policy ought to respond in what Macklem called a more 'shock-prone' world. The G7 Finance Ministers' Summit in Kananaskis, Alta., last month also featured roundtables with the bloc's central bankers. Conversations at the summit were 'candid,' Macklem said, and though the nations issued a joint statement at the close of the event, that doesn't mean they agreed on everything. 'International co-operation, to be honest, has never been easy. It is particularly difficult right now, but that doesn't make it less important. That makes it more important,' he said. 'I do think Canada, as the chair of the G7, has a leadership role to play.' The Bank of Canada is also changing the way it has conversations with Canadians and the kind of data it considers. A day after the June interest rate decision, deputy governor Sharon Kozicki told a Toronto business crowd how the central bank is using data more nimbly, relying heavily on surveys and more granular information to make monetary policy decisions in an uncertain time. These sources offer a faster way to see what's happening on the ground in the economy than traditional statistical models allow. Macklem said the central bank would previously have dismissed most supply shocks as transitory — likely to pass without the need for central bank adjustments, such as rising and falling oil prices. But he said the Bank of Canada needs to be running a more 'nuanced playbook' now to respond to some increasingly common shocks: supply chain disruptions, trade conflicts and extreme weather to name a few. An overheating economy running up against a supply disruption is the kind of inflationary fire Macklem is trying to avoid in this latest crisis. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'The economy does not work well when inflation is high,' he said. 'And the primary role of the Bank of Canada is to ensure that Canadians maintain confidence in price stability. That's all we can do for the Canadian economy. That's what we can do for Canadians. And that's what we're focused on.' Later in the day on Wednesday, the Edmonton Oilers took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals. The Canadian team was down but roared back to win 4-3 in overtime. It's still early in the Bank of Canada's response to the latest global shock. But with any luck, Macklem's team might also get a leg up with lessons learned the last time they faced big odds. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 7, 2025.

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