Boeing trims projection for 20-year jet demand
Boeing expects global demand for air travel to increase by more than 40% by 2030, driving the need for thousands of new jetliners in the next few years, according to its 20-year demand forecast for commercial airliners released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow.
The company expects demand for 43,600 new airliners through 2044. That is essentially the same as last year's edition, which projected demand for 43,975 new deliveries through 2043.
European rival Airbus last week revised up its own 20-year commercial demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, saying the air transport industry was expected to ride out current trade tensions.
Boeing's delivery projection includes nearly 33,300 single-aisle airliners, just over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 factory-built freighters and 1,545 regional jets. Single-aisle jets include the 737 MAX and competitor Airbus's A320neo family and make up roughly four of every five deliveries now.
While Boeing's deliveries projection is roughly the same, it pared down its 20-year forecast for passenger traffic growth from 4.7% in last year's outlook to 4.2% this year. Likewise, it lowered its global economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.3%, cargo traffic growth from 4.1% to 3.7% and fleet growth from 3.2% to 3.1%.
Despite the lower projection for cargo traffic, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst told reporters in a briefing that trade volatility is not expected to significantly shift long-term demand.
"I think we need to point back to the perspective that the last 20, 40, 60 years have given us in terms of the value of air cargo, and the fact that it's roughly a 4% growth market through all this time," he said.
Since Covid-19, air travel demand has bounced back, but airplane production is only half or even less than what it was before the pandemic, resulting in a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 airliners, he said. Both Airbus and Boeing have struggled to return aircraft production to pre-pandemic levels.
Boeing has been dealing with production safety concerns following a 2024 mid-air blowout of a panel on a nearly new Alaska Airlines 737 Max. As a result, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration capped 737 production at 38 airplanes a month. Boeing has significantly improved production quality in recent months, but the crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner on Thursday put it back in crisis mode.
CEO Kelly Ortberg cancelled his plans to attend the Paris Airshow in order to assist with the crash investigation. Global air travel is projected to increase by more than 40% by 2030, compared to the pre-pandemic high, according to the forecast.
During the next 20 years, Boeing expects about 51% of demand for new aircraft to come from growth rather than replacing older airplanes.
China and South/Southeast Asia, which includes India, are expected to account for half of that additional capacity, according to the outlook. North America and Eurasia account for more than half of projected deliveries for replacing older aircraft.
China makes up an estimated 10% of Boeing's existing order backlog. The country paused taking delivery of new Boeing aircraft as China and the U.S. clashed over tariffs. However, deliveries are expected to resume this month, Ortberg said in May during an investors conference.
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CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
Boeing Dreamliner crash, military escalations darken mood at Paris Air Show
Kelly Ortberg's first Paris Air Show as Boeing CEO was set to be relatively upbeat. Under his leadership that began in August, the company has made strides in ramping up production of its bestselling 737 Max jets, increasing cash-generating deliveries of new planes, and indicating that it's turning a corner from a series of manufacturing and safety crises and years of lost ground to rival Airbus. Shares are up more than 13% this year, outpacing the S&P 500. But after an Air India flight crashed on Thursday, marking the first fatal air disaster of a Boeing Dreamliner, Ortberg canceled plans to go to the massive air show that begins on Sunday. The trade event is a big draw for the industry and is held every other year, alternating with the Farnborough Air Show in the U.K. Boeing, Airbus and other aerospace giants host champagne-flowing parties, hold flashy deal-signing ceremonies with executives flanked by model planes, and show off their new aircraft with extreme maneuvers for spectators below. "As our industry prepares to start the Paris Air Show, Stephanie and I have both canceled plans to attend so we can be with our team, and focus on our customer and the investigation," Ortberg said in a note to employees late Thursday, referring to Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope. All but one of the 242 people aboard Air India Flight 171 were killed when the more than 11-year-old Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that was headed for London on a sweltering day crashed into a medical student dining hall seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad in western India. The sole survivor was an India-born British national in seat 11A. The cause of the crash is unknown and will take weeks or months to determine. Questions focus on how the plane so quickly and evenly lost altitude, appearing to glide into a fireball crash. Cockpit voice and data recorders, known as "black boxes," will provide key information. "It is important that we do not speculate about the accident and let the investigators do their work," Ortberg wrote. The plane's engine maker, GE Aerospace, said it will postpone an investor day scheduled for Tuesday. The crash isn't the only outside factor changing the gathering in Paris. Shortly before the Paris Air Show was set to begin, Israel launched overnight missile strikes on Iran. Hours later, Iran launched drones toward Israeli territory. Airlines canceled flights, with jets in the air diverting or returning to their destinations, while hundreds of others skirted the airspace. The escalating tensions will make military budgets and spending an even bigger focus for the air show, but they also raise concerns about how conflicts and geopolitical tensions could impact demand for commercial air travel. Despite the crash and other external concerns, Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are expected to lock in hundreds of airplane orders. Wait times for popular new aircraft models already stretch into the next decade with demand still strong. Boeing forecast on Saturday that the world will need 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades, with emerging markets driving growth. It expects those markets will account for more than half of the world's fleet in 2044, up from a 40% share last year. Some of the order signings could come from previously undisclosed customers, though there are many new orders on the line, aviation analysts say. Ongoing issues, such as a lack of trained workers, have delayed deliveries of new planes, while on-again, off-again tariffs have raised concerns about more expensive aircraft and components. Pricing has also firmed up. A new Airbus A321neo was going for $65 million as of the end of April, up from $58 million at the start of 2023, while a new Boeing 737 Max 8 cost about $55.5 million in April, compared with $50.25 million in early 2023, according to Ishka an aviation data and advisory firm. With aircraft still in short supply, lease rates are also going up for older planes for airlines that prefer not to make multimillion-dollar aircraft purchases up front or that might need them for shorter time periods. A 12-year-old Boeing 737 costs $241,000 a month to rent as of the end of April, up nearly 42% from two years earlier, and an Airbus A320 of the same age was $239,000 a month, a 50% gain, according to IBA Insight, another aviation data firm. U.K.-based IBA predicted manufacturers could see between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders during the Paris show, a tally that includes firm orders, options, and looser commitments like purchase intention letters and memoranda of understanding. Customers could include Ethiopian Airlines and Polish carrier Lot, as well as Vietnam Airlines, AirAsia, Royal Air Maroc, Etihad and Saudi carrier Riyadh, said Ishka. "A large deal from China is inevitable sometime, for replacement if not growth reasons," Ishka said in a note last week. Air India, which Ishka had previously listed as a potential customer, was no longer expected to buy new planes given last week's tragedy. Airplane customers are going bigger as international travel continues to bring in money. "It used to be all about single-aisle orders," said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory. Now, "everyone is booking these monster twin-aisle orders for international traffic." He said major international airlines like Turkish Airlines, Gulf carriers and others have expanded in recent years, competing for more global travelers, "slicing the pizza into smaller pieces." Since orders are placed years in advance, Aboulafia said he doesn't expect a big impact on demand because of the crash, though some might be held back during the show. "It's a terrible tragedy. It doesn't make anyone's lives easier," he said. "I just don't think given what we know now it has anything to do with the design or the build of the airplane. It sure doesn't look like it."
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Eve Air Mobility Twenty-Year Market Outlook Highlights Growth of Urban Air Mobility Globally
Outlook highlights a $280 billion passenger revenue and 30,000 aircraft opportunities driven by urban population growth, traffic concerns, and a commitment to sustainability. PARIS, June 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Eve Air Mobility (NYSE: EVEX; EVEXW), a global leader in electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, published its inaugural Global Market Outlook. The Outlook highlights the growth and demand surrounding the urban air mobility category for the next 20 years and provides insights into the societal, regional, and use case-specific factors driving demand. The Global Market Outlook leverages data on 1,800 cities on the UN's World Urbanization Prospects database, 1,000 airports, and over 27,000 civil helicopters currently in operation. "The Global Market Outlook furthers the excitement and momentum we have seen in collaborating with our customers and municipal partners worldwide," said Johann Bordais, CEO of Eve Air Mobility. "Today, the UAM market benefits from urban growth, higher traffic congestion, and a positive shift towards sustainable mobility. Demand for UAM is strong and marks the beginning of a major shift in how people will move and live in cities worldwide." This report sets the stage for the 2025 Paris Air Show, where a major highlight will be the unveiling of Eve Air Mobility's full-scale mockup, showcasing a design evolution that enhances the Eve-100 aircraft's performance. The mockup, to be displayed in the Embraer pavilion outside Chalet #300, will showcase several key enhancements. These include a new cabin design, the addition of four-blade propellers, and wheeled landing gear. These improvements are designed to significantly enhance the safety, accessibility, comfort, performance, and maneuverability of the Eve-100, setting a new standard in Urban Air Mobility. Transporting Three Billion Passengers by 2045The topline numbers from The Global Market Outlook show an estimated in-service vehicle fleet of 30,000 eVTOLs by 2045. This fleet figure will be needed to support the estimated three billion passengers, creating a potential revenue of $280 billion. Critical use cases driving growth include Urban Point-to-Point, Airport Shuttle, and Tourism, Medical Services, Corporate, Private and Charter. From a key driver perspective, the Outlook points to urban congestion as one of the critical factors demonstrating the need for alternative means of transportation as the 2022 United Nations World Population Prospects points to over two billion more people living in cities by 2050. Other data highlighting these congestion challenges include: By 2035, more than eight hundred cities will have a population of more than one million, accounting for over 2.5 billion people (World Cities Report, United Nations 2022). This growth will only accelerate the congestion challenges seen to date. In 2024, congestion continued to be a significant issue in major markets. For example, cities such as London (226 hours), New York (196 hours), Bengaluru (234 hours), Sao Paulo (222 hours), and Johannesburg (112 hours) saw significant annual time lost per person due to congestion. Regional BreakdownEve anticipates significant Asia-Pacific growth driven by dense megacities and a rising middle class. North America shows promise due to substantial investment and an established aviation ecosystem. Europe may grow more slowly because of regulatory challenges. Latin America presents opportunities with eVTOLs addressing urbanization and renewable energy. While smaller, the Middle East is an early adopter focused on innovation and sustainable transportation. The Africa market is driven by the opportunity to overcome infrastructure challenges from high urban population growth and enhance tourism experience. Key UAM Enablers and ChallengesWhile the future of urban air mobility is strong and shows great promise, the industry will have to overcome numerous challenges to realize its full challenges include: Safe operations: High safety is a non-negotiable requirement for high-scale operations. Regulatory approval: A comprehensive but accessible regulatory environment for a safe ecosystem is critical. Air traffic management (ATM): Airspace integration and future uncrewed operations are two areas where ATM will play a key role in high-density operations. Ecosystem: Existing heliport infrastructure is necessary to accommodate near-term operations. Battery technology: Higher battery densities are required for broader and longer-range applications. The public acceptance of UAM will depend on a combination of these factors. Click here to request a copy of the UAM Global Market Outlook. About Eve Air Mobility Eve Air Mobility is dedicated to accelerating the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) ecosystem. Benefitting from a start-up mindset, backed by Embraer S.A.'s more than 50-year history of aerospace expertise, and with a singular focus, Eve is taking a holistic approach to progressing the UAM ecosystem, with an advanced eVTOL project, comprehensive global services and support network and a unique air traffic management solution. Since May 10, 2022, Eve is listed on the New York Stock Exchange where its shares of common stock and public warrants trade under the tickers "EVEX" and "EVEXW". For more information, please visit Forward-Looking Statement DisclosureCertain statements contained in this release are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "plan," "project," "could," "should," "would," "continue," "seek," "target," "guidance," "outlook," "if current trends continue," "optimistic," "forecast" and other similar words or expressions. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements about the company's plans, objectives, expectations, outlooks, projections, intentions, estimates, and other statements of future events or conditions, including with respect to all companies or entities named within. These forward-looking statements are based on the company's current objectives, beliefs and expectations, and they are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and financial position and timing of certain events to differ materially from the information in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those set forth herein as well as in Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors and Part II, Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations of the company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part I, Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and Part II, Item 1A. Risk Factors of the company's most recent Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, and other risks and uncertainties listed from time to time in the company's other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, there may be other factors of which the company is not currently aware that may affect matters discussed in the forward-looking statements and may also cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. The company does not assume any obligation to publicly update or supplement any forward-looking statement to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting these forward-looking statements. other than as required by law. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof or as of the dates indicated in the statement. View original content: SOURCE Eve Air Mobility Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
National Geographic
9 hours ago
- National Geographic
Want to see the best of Uzbekistan? Take a train journey through the Fergana Valley
One of only two double-landlocked countries on Earth, Uzbekistan has historically served as a corridor across Central Asia. But this beguiling country is more than just a passageway. It's a place where Silk Road monuments mingle with blue-dome madrasas; warm, friendly people make long-lasting impressions; and fresh, homemade comfort food leaves you satiated, from fluffy non bread to sweet cherries plucked straight from the tree. While most visitors are familiar with the popular Silk Road sites in Samarkand and Bukhara, venture to the Fergana Valley and you'll be rewarded with a cultural experience that few travellers encounter. Tucked into a green basin between the Tian Shan and Gissar-Alai mountains, carved by the Syr Darya river, the valley stretches for almost 200 miles across eastern Uzbekistan. With an abundance of arable land, it's often regarded as the cultural and agricultural heart of the country, supplying cotton and wine grapes throughout Uzbekistan. Travelling around the region is easy, with the O'zbekiston rail line connecting each of the valley's major cities to the country's capital, Tashkent. Here's how to take the less-chartered path through Uzbekistan's eastern corner. Wander the verdant footpaths of Tashkent Botanical Garden, open to visitors all year round. Photograph by National PR Centre Tashkent Your journey begins in Uzbekistan's green capital. Upon arrival, spend some time wandering the stalls of Chorsu Bazaar, where you can grab a fresh loaf of bread from wood-oven bakeries and peruse the variety of local meats and cheeses on offer in the domed, hangar-like main hall. For a taste of Islamic architecture, the nearby Hazrati Imam Complex features striking teal domes and intricate mosaic tiles, juxtaposed by the gleaming white marble of Minor Mosque. Just north of the city centre, Tashkent Botanical Garden is the country's oldest, home to some 6,000 species of plants. Once you've had your fill, follow the canalside walkways before stopping for a bite to eat at Besh Qozon. Also known as the Central Asian Pilaf Centre, it's the best place to try plov, Uzbekistan's national dish of rice, meat and vegetables. For an evening tipple, sample the spoils of Uzbekistan's burgeoning wine industry at the family-owned Uzumfermer Winery in the Kibray district, northeast of the city centre. Kokand The first stop on the railway into Fergana is Kokand (Qo'qon), set along the Sokh River at an ancient crossroads for caravans travelling the Silk Road. In the 19th century, Kokand was the seat of one of Uzbekistan's three major khanates, and the Palace of Khudáyár Khán was the home of the Kokand Khanate's last ruler. Built between 1863 and 1874, its richly decorated royal halls, harem (women's quarters) and guest rooms feature a blend of Uzbek and European styles. Head southeast from the palace to Jami Mosque, the city's main house of worship, constructed in 1812 by Muhammad Umar Khan. Its splendid architectural features include a large Sufi gathering hall and carved redwood columns brought from India. Kokand was also the home of 19th-century female poet Nodira, who had the Madari Khan Mausoleum built for her mother-in-law — hence the name, which translates to 'Mother of Khan Tomb'. Today, visitors can stroll beyond the small, domed portal into the site's cemetery, where the female members of the khan's family were later laid to rest. Dating back to the 19th century, the Palace of Khudáyár Khán complex was built to showcase the power of Kokand's ruler. Photograph by Maximum Exposure Limited Margilan Reboard the train and travel onwards to Margilan, the home city of Uzbekistan's iconic ikat fabrics, listed on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage list. Their brightly coloured, geometric patterns are celebrated at the Atlas Bayrami festival of traditional textiles, held in Margilan biannually. You'll also find the Yodgorlik Silk Factory here, which has been in operation since 1972. A tour of the nearby Margilan Crafts Development Center provides an insightful introduction to the intricate production of silk — from cocoon to the loom. You'll have the opportunity to purchase fabrics and scarves at both the factory and the city's historic market, the Kumtepa Bazaar, where haggling over prices is the name of the game. For a moment of repose, visit the reconstructed 16th-century Khonakhan Mosque, featuring some of the famed, Timurid-style tiling and architecture of Uzbekistan's most popular monuments — just without the crowds. On Bogishamol hill, Babur Memorial Park and House Museum houses the tomb of Zahiriddin Babur, founder of the Baburid Empire and a descendant of Timur and Genghis Khan. Photograph by National PR Centre Andijan The final stop on the line — and of your trip — is Andijan, a small, historic city near the eastern tip of the Fergana Valley. Step back in time at the Jami Complex, a 19th-century madrasa famed for its Islamic architectural elements, including ornate mosaics and carvings. Just under 20 miles outside the city is the Mingtepa archaeological site, where the remains of a first-century BCE settlement ruled by Fergana kings was discovered. Explore the site's 20ft walls and defence towers before heading to the Babur Memorial Park and House Museum, where Andijan's most famous son — the great ruler Babur (1483-1530) — lived and studied as a boy. With a large collection of literary works, diplomatic documents, gifts and souvenirs, the museum provides a fascinating insight into the correspondence between the Baburids and the khans. Plan your trip: Direct flights are available from London to Tashkent several times a week, or alternatively, you can transfer to the city via Istanbul. UK citizens can visit Uzbekistan for tourism or business for up to 30 days visa-free. O'zbekiston rail line trains depart for Kokand, Margilan and Andijan from either Tashkent's north or south railway stations. For more information, visit This paid content article was created for National PR Centre. It does not necessarily reflect the views of National Geographic, National Geographic Traveller (UK) or their editorial staffs. To subscribe to National Geographic Traveller (UK) magazine click here. (Available in select countries only).
