What are the chances of Italy voting in favour of easing citizenship rules?
Italy will soon hold a landmark referendum on easing citizenship by residency rules after the proposal was approved by the Italian Constitutional Court in a historic ruling in late January.
The referendum will ask Italians to decide on whether or not to create a quicker path to naturalisation by cutting the current 10-year wait time down to five years.
Though the exact referendum date hasn't been announced yet, under Italian law, the vote will have to take place on a Sunday between April 15th and June 15th.
With the vote fast approaching, readers of The Local have recently asked us what exactly is needed for the reform to pass and what are the chances that this will ultimately happen.
What's needed for the reform to pass?
The upcoming vote on easing citizenship rules is an abrogative referendum, meaning that it seeks to repeal an existing law or part of it – in this case, letter F of article 9, Law 91, 1992.
As is the case with all abrogative referendums in Italy, voter turnout will need to exceed 50 percent for its result to be valid.
In other words, the result will only be accepted if the majority of all eligible voters cast their ballots. If this 'quorum' (or threshold) is not met, the referendum won't be valid, whatever the result may be.
If the quorum is met, the proposed citizenship reform will pass if the majority (over 50 percent) of votes cast are in favour of it.
Reaching the quorum
This will be the first of two major hurdles faced by the proposed citizenship reform.
Out of around 51 million eligible voters (including 4.7 million Italians residing abroad), over 25.5 million people will need to take part in the vote for its result to be considered valid.
It's currently hard to make predictions as to whether or not the referendum will meet the required threshold.
Some Italian news reports see this as difficult given that voter turnout for abrogative referendums has historically been low.
According to Il Post, over the past 50 years, Italians have been called to vote in 77 abrogative referendums. Of those, only 39 reached the quorum.
Furthermore, of the 39 referendums that did meet the required voter turnout, 35 took place between 1974 and 1995.
The latest abrogative referendum was held in June 2022 and saw a 20.9-percent voter turnout.
Does this mean that the referendum has no chance of reaching the required turnout?
Not really.
The overall decline in voter turnout in referendums held over the past three decades has been frequently attributed by political commentators to their questions being on issues of little interest to the general public (e.g., the judicial system, the careers of magistrates and journalists, and the installation of electrical conduits on private land) or on topics where it was extremely difficult for many people to form an informed opinion (for instance, assisted reproduction).
These considerations don't seem to apply to the upcoming vote, as the potential relaxation of some citizenship rules and eligibility criteria has been a heavily discussed topic in recent years.
Furthermore, the citizenship referendum poses a relatively straightforward question: whether or not to cut the existing residency requirement down to five years (from 10).
The plain nature of the question may result in a higher number of voters forming an opinion about the topic and choosing to have their say in the matter.
All in all, a 'miracle' would still be needed to reach the quorum, according to L'Espresso political reporter Franco Corleone. But a miracle remains 'possible' and it 'can be achieved by reigniting passion in confronting a dangerously deep crisis in politics and democracy,' he says.
Let's assume the threshold is met. What happens then?
If the quorum is met, the citizenship reform will pass if the majority (over 50 percent) of votes cast are in favour of it. But what are the chances of this happening?
We're entering pure speculation territory here, as there aren't yet any polls or surveys that can give us an idea of how Italians feel about the potential easing of citizenship rules.
That said, a brief look at where the main Italian parties stand on the matter can help us in our analysis.
So far, a broad centre-left coalition including the Partito Democratico (PD), Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS), Italia Viva and +Europa, has backed the reform.
On the other hand, the centrist Azione has opposed the proposed changes, with party leader Carlo Calenda claiming to hold 'a different view' regarding citizenship.
The populist Movimento 5 Stelle headed by Giuseppe Conte has also refrained from publicly supporting the reform, though one of its MPs signed the original referendum campaign back in September.
As for the right-wing ruling coalition, PM Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia party, Matteo Salvini's Lega and Antonio Tajani's Forza Italia have all opposed the easing of citizenship rules.
PM Meloni openly criticised the proposed reform, saying that she didn't 'see the need for a change' and considered the ten-year period 'appropriate'.
'I think Italy has excellent citizenship laws. I believe this is demonstrated by the fact that we are among the European nations that grant the highest number of citizenships to foreigners,' she added.
Where does this leave us?
According to the latest Ipsos polls on voting intentions, the ruling coalition (Fratelli d'Italia, Lega and Forza Italia) enjoys the support of around 45 percent of voters.
By contrast, the centre-left coalition backing the reform (Partito Democratico, Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra, Italia Viva and +Europa) is backed by around 32 percent of voters.
On paper, the centre-left coalition doesn't currently have the numbers to overcome the united right-wing front.
However, two key considerations must be made at this point.
Firstly, Giuseppe Conte's M5S, which has the support of 12.5 percent of voters, hasn't yet made its intentions clear regarding the referendum. Should the party back the reform, the opposition's chances of defeating the ruling coalition may increase significantly.
Secondly, referendums are quite different from general elections.
While in general elections voters are asked to elect the country's government – and the main social, political and economic policies – for the following five years, in referendums they're asked to have their say in a specific matter (usually expressed in the form of a single question), which is usually of lesser perceived relevance and impact.
That is to say that, while people generally back the party they feel most closely associated with in general elections, it's far more likely for voters to stray away from their party's official stance in referendums.
So, as influential as parties' stance on the citizenship reform may be, the ultimate decision will come down to every single voter, and specifically on whether or not they want to make the path to naturalisation quicker.
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