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32 minutes ago
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U.S. inflation may have worsened last month as Trump's tariffs start to bite
WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation likely accelerated in June as sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports may have pushed up prices for electronics, appliances, and other goods, economists forecast. Consumer prices probably rose 2.6% last month from a year ago, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May, according to data provider FactSet. The Labor Department will issue its inflation report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. On a monthly basis, prices likely rose 0.3% from May to June, the largest increase since January, economists project. Worsening inflation could pose a political challenge for President Donald Trump, who promised during last year's presidential campaign to immediately lower costs. The sharp inflation spike of 2022-2023 was the worst in four decades and soured most Americans on former president Joe Biden's handling of the economy. Faster price increases would also likely underscore the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut its short-term interest rate, as Trump is loudly demanding. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, inflation is forecast to have risen 3% in June from a year earlier, up from a 2.8% rise in May. On a monthly basis, it is also expected to have picked up 0.3% from May to June, according to FactSet. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed. Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports, plus 50% levies on steel and aluminum, 30% on goods from China, and 25% on imported cars. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1. So far, the tariffs haven't noticeably pushed up inflation, which has been mild for the past four months. Core inflation has fallen from 3.3% in January to 2.8% in May, though that is still above the Fed's 2% target. If inflation in June is much weaker than economists forecast, Trump will likely renew his demands that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell immediately reduce borrowing costs. Powell and other Fed officials have emphasized that they want to see how the economy evolves as the tariffs take effect before cutting their key short-term rate. The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them. Trump on Monday said that Powell has been 'terrible' and 'doesn't know what the hell he's doing.' The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell's refusal to reduce rates, but it would be 'nice' if there were rate cuts 'because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.' Last week, White House officials also attacked Powell for cost overruns on the years-long renovation of two Fed buildings, which are now slated to cost $2.5 billion, roughly one-third more than originally budgeted. While Trump legally can't fire Powell just because he disagrees with his interest rate decisions, the Supreme Court has signaled, he may be able to do so 'for cause,' such as misconduct or mismanagement. While inflation was mild in May, there were already signs in last month's report that tariffs were starting to have some impact. The cost of furniture, appliances, toys, and tools rose, though those increases were offset by falling prices for airfares, hotels, and muted rises in rental costs. Some companies have said they have or plan to raise prices as a result of the tariffs, including Walmart, the world's largest retailer. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement 'surgical' price hikes to offset tariff costs. But many companies have been able to postpone or avoid price increases, after building up their stockpiles of goods this spring to get ahead of the duties. Other companies may have refrained from lifting prices while they wait to see whether the U.S. is able to reach trade deals with other countries that lower the duties. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
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Veteran trader has surprising message on stocks
Veteran trader has surprising message on stocks originally appeared on TheStreet. The stock market's move higher since April 9 has been impressive. The rally has been relentless after President Donald Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs he had announced only days earlier on April 2, so-called Liberation Day. The S&P 500 has risen over 25% and the Nasdaq Composite has increased by 35%, with each recently notching all-time highs. 💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter💰 The stock market's move in speed and size likely surprised many, given that higher-than-expected tariffs had caused the S&P 500 to tumble 19%, nearly into bear market territory. Many concerns during stocks' sell-off, including the risk of stagflation or recession, remain possibilities, given that unemployment has risen this past year and sticky inflation could ding GDP later this year when the full impact of remaining tariffs passes through supply chains. Stocks generally do best when investors are optimistic about future revenue and earnings growth, and households and businesses ramp up spending rather than retrench. As a result, many people are likely scratching their heads, wondering what may happen next, especially since the S&P 500's valuation has surged back to new highs. Those in the bullish camp say the 19% decline in the S&P 500 between February and April's low priced in enough risk to set the stage for persistent gains. Bears argue lofty valuations and a sputtering economy put stocks at risk of a reckoning. Many Wall Street pros, including popular veteran trader Mark Minervini, have offered their opinions recently. Minervini was mentored by legendary stock picker William O'Neil and was featured in the "Market Wizards" book series for his ability to profit from good and bad tapes. Recently, Minervini delivered a candid message about the stock market, and given his experience, considering what he has to say may be smart. What will happen to the economy next because of tariffs is debatable. Tariff proponents believe that they're the best way to strong-arm a return of manufacturing to America, and the risk of them igniting inflation is overblown. Opponents think tariffs weigh on already cash-strapped consumers, crimping economic activity and slowing business spending while C-suites await trade deal clarity. The reality may wind up landing somewhere in the middle. If so, an uptick in unemployment, stalled inflation progress, and cuts to GDP forecasts could be in the already seeing some worrisome signs. While the unemployment rate is relatively healthy at just 4.1%, it has risen from 3.4% in 2023. Further, over 696,000 people have been laid off year-to-date through May, up 80% year over year, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. The most hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate hikes since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker battled runaway inflation in the early 1980s have contributed to the weakening job markets. The Fed's current Chair, Jerome Powell, raised interest rates by 5% in 2022 and 2023, wrestling CPI inflation down below 3% from 8% in 2022. The drop in inflation is welcome, but there has been limited progress recently. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was 2.7% in May, matching January's reading. Stalled inflation progress may increase the risk that tariffs cause prices to swell again, putting the Federal Reserve in a bind. The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is low inflation and low unemployment, two often contrary goals. When the Fed raises rates, it slows inflation but increases unemployment. When it cuts rates, it lowers unemployment but accelerates inflation. Late last year, the Fed switched from rate hikes to rate cuts, lowering its Fed Funds Rate by 1% to support the job market. However, sticky inflation and tariff uncertainty have since moved the Fed to the sidelines, which is problematic for stocks because higher rates drag on profitability and reduce personal and business spending. In June, the Fed cut its GDP estimate for this year to 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March, and meaningfully below the 2.8% growth notched in 2024. If Powell leaves rates unchanged and the economy gets worse, Congress may not be able to help. Fiscal policy is hamstrung by a mountainous deficit and soaring debt pile, particularly following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax deficit is already above $1.8 trillion, accounting for 6.4% of gross domestic product, and total public debt outstanding is roughly 122% of GDP, far north of the 75% level witnessed during 2008's Great Recession. The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will increase national debt by $2.4 trillion through 2034. While this backdrop threatens revenue and earnings growth, the stock market's record-setting run suggests investors think any economic dip will be temporary. Mark Minervini has been trading stocks for nearly 40 years. A technical analyst, Minervini cut his teeth learning from William O'Neil, the veteran Wall Street stock picker likely best known as the founder of Investor's Business Daily. Minervini won the U.S. Investing Championship in 2021 with a remarkable 334.8% return, a record. He also won the title in 1997 with a 155% return. More experts: Fed official sends strong message about interest-rate cuts Billionaire fund manager sends surprising message on trade deficit Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece Since he's a technician, Minervini uses price action to inform his buy and sell decisions. While the rally since April has been rewarding, he has noticed some trouble under the hood that could give active investors pause. "If you are a breakout trader using tight stops — even though the indexes have ripped higher — you have likely experienced a low batting average," wrote Minervini on X. Minervini is a rules-based trader who limits losses by using tight stop-loss orders. Stops can protect your downside, but during periods of volatility, they can trigger more often than usual, reducing your winning percentage. "The frequent occurrence of squats and outright failures continues to dominate as a theme around breakout levels, clearly signaling that conditions remain challenging and volatile around key risk levels," wrote Minervini. "These failed breakouts reveal persistent overhead supply and insufficient follow-through from institutional buyers, underscoring a risk off market with regard to broad-based participation." Minervini prefers to buy stocks as they rise, believing winners will continue to win. The failure of breakout stocks to follow through suggests to him that institutional investors aren't willing to press the accelerator, making it challenging to profit big from trading stocks. "I remain an active participant and careful observer, adjusting day by day and ensuring risk management remains my top priority," wrote Minervini. "As far as breakout stocks are concerned, this is NOT yet an Easy Dollar environment. For the most part, we are still fighting for pennies."Veteran trader has surprising message on stocks first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025, where it first appeared. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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32 minutes ago
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Trump firing Fed Chair Powell could trigger 'Nixon shock,' warns analyst
Trump firing Fed Chair Powell could trigger 'Nixon shock,' warns analyst originally appeared on TheStreet. Bitcoin passed $120,000 this week, surpassing the market capitalization of Amazon, making Bitcoin's market cap the fifth largest in the world. At the same time, nearly $4 billion has flown into crypto investment products, and altcoins have picked up momentum. But this turn is not just technical. It is becoming even more tied to macro signals with the whispers of where the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may end up. CPI data comes out on Tuesday, and President Trump continues to mention a possible interest rate cut by the Fed, forcing investors to adjust a wild card has surfaced! President Donald Trump may remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a trade that Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos states is one of the most underpriced risks in the markets. According to Saravelos, if Jerome Powell is fired, the market could be disrupted within 24 hours. As per WSJ, Saravelos told clients in a note that dismissing Powell could lead to a 3%–4% fall in the dollar and push U.S. Treasury yields up 30–40 bps in a matter of hours. The ramifications would stretch well beyond U.S. borders, he said, noting the threat to swap lines and overall market confidence in U.S. monetary policy. In crypto circles, analysts spoke exclusively to TheStreet Roundtable. They said such a move would further amplify the asset class's core narrative. "Removing the Fed Chair would be a nuclear event for market confidence," said Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs. 'Crypto thrives when people stop believing the old guard has things under control." According to Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, Trump's advocacy for lower rates, especially as the U.S. is trying to manage debt costs, could be disastrous if long-term yields rise due to a loss of faith in the independence of the Fed. However, Magadini believes that "It would be a huge boon to Bitcoin, gold, and other hard assets—a disaster for fixed income and the dollar." He compared it to Nixon's decision to go off the gold standard in Richard Nixon's 1971 decision to devalue the dollar and unpeg it from gold caused global financial turmoil and a gold price boom, commonly known as the 'Nixon shock'. As markets prepare for Tuesday's inflation data, Bitcoin's current price is more than just ETF inflows as analysts are betting on a much larger macro dislocation. Whichever way Powell decides to go, markets are already pricing in a change. At press time Bitcoin is trading at $119,803.91, up nearly 1% in the last 24 hours, as per Kraken's price page. Trump firing Fed Chair Powell could trigger 'Nixon shock,' warns analyst first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 14, 2025, where it first appeared.
