IMD retains ‘above normal' rainfall outlook for monsoon

The Hindu

6 days ago

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its April forecast for 'above normal' rainfall from June-September. It expects the country to see about 92 cm rainfall (106% of the long period average) during this southwest monsoon season, slightly higher than the 91.3 cm (105% of the average) rainfall that it had forecast in April.
Except the northeast and northwestern parts of the country, most of India will receive 'above normal' rainfall. In June alone, the country is likely to receive at least 8% more than its average quota of 16.7 cm.
The monsoon came early this year, reaching Kerala on May 24, a week ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. Not since the monsoon of 2009 has its arrival been this early. Moreover, the monsoon also advanced to Mumbai early, breaking a 35-year old record by reaching the city on May 26, two weeks ahead of the norm. The seasonal rains also advanced faster than usual to many parts of Karnataka, Goa, and central Maharashtra.
At a press conference on Tuesday (May 27, 2025), IMD officials said that a confluence of factors had played a role in 'advancing the monsoon', including a pre-cyclonic circulation and optimal temperatures in the Tibetan plateau, along with a couple of other global factors.
Slowdown likely
While more rain is expected for the next four days in parts of Odisha and central India, the monsoon 'wouldn't continue to speed' indefinitely, according to officials. 'We cannot say that the monsoon will continue to speed towards Delhi and northern India. There will be a slowdown,' said IMD Director General M. Mohapatra. The normal date for the monsoon's arrival in Delhi is the last week of June. Even if the rains do not arrive early, however, the overall strong monsoon means that heatwaves are unlikely to ravage the capital region in June, Mr. Mohapatra added.
Advisories from the Maharashtra government have also warned farmers to wait for a few days before commencing sowing.
A swathe of central India, Odisha, and parts of Rajasthan — called the 'core zone', as its agriculture is almost entirely rain-fed — is also likely to receive 6% more rain than normal.
No El Nino
The main factor favouring a good monsoon is the absence of an El Nino, which is associated with a warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is also associated with weak monsoon rainfall about 60% of the years when it is in effect.
If the IMD's forecast proves accurate, this would be the second sucessive year of 'above normal' monsoon rainfall. Last year, India received 8% more than the historical average from June to September.
While all IMD forecasts have a 4% margin of error, its prediction for this year's southwest monsoon could mean enough water for the kharif crop, and improve storage in the country's reservoirs. However, it can also mean episodes of intense rain and translate to devastating floods in parts of the country.